Calling pushes in the end game

[AtticusFinch]

[ QUOTE ]
Why are you clearly a dog to the appropriate range of hands?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think "appropriate range of hands" should be replaced with "most hands I see pushed." Your range is probably much closer to optimal than the average player's. Thankfully, the average player is not very close to optimal at all, at least not in the 55s where I play [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] There, I rarely (not never, but not often) see a push with anything less than QT.

There is always room for adjusting for a read of your table.

[ChrisV]

I just ran some calculations for Hand 1 and assuming button's push range is, say:

AA-22, AKs-A2s, KQs-K2s, QJs-Q8s, JTs-J9s, AKo-A2o, KQo-K2o, QJo-Q8o, JTo-J9o

The ICM says I want to win 51.38% of the time and pokerstove has 55 winning 53.95% of the time versus that range, so narrowly a call. Eliminating the K5-K2 hands knocks around 1.8% off that margin, but it's still a call. There are two other factors: by folding I can try to engineer a better situation later - either getting a better EV allin, or the other stacks may have a confrontation. Also BB may wake up with a higher pair and call, which is a pretty bad deal as you will come third probably something like 85% of the time. The likelihood of BB having something he can call with (say 88 and up) is around 1 in 16.

I think basically it's close enough that it doesn't matter.

[Scuba Chuck]

As an aside, I've always loved the reaction I get when I make the old "call a 2/1 push for < 1/3 of your stack with any two" move.

Well, I think you'll be disappointed on this forum. I'm pretty sure the *smarter* 2ers already get this. Besides, it's #2 on Daliman's list.

[ChrisV]

My range as SB here is in fact close to any two. I'd fold the terrible stuff but hands I'm pushing include 97o and 53s, for example. In the 200's I routinely see hands like that shown down from others in a spot like this.

Of course you have to take your read on SB into account, but say I give him an ultra-tight range, e.g.:

AA-22, AKs-A7s, KQs-KTs, QJs-QTs, AKo-A8o, KQo-KTo, QJo-QTo

(and I think I'm being pretty generous assuming he's folding stuff like K9s and JT, but anyway....) then the pot odds STILL have it a clear call (win rate required to call is 38.44% or better, actual win rate is 40.07%). I can't be bothered with the ICM numbers, but I can't imagine they'd change that result given your large stack and the likelihood of a player being eliminated.

[AtticusFinch]

[ QUOTE ]
As an aside, I've always loved the reaction I get when I make the old "call a 2/1 push for < 1/3 of your stack with any two" move.

Well, I think you'll be disappointed on this forum. I'm pretty sure the *smarter* 2ers already get this. Besides, it's #2 on Daliman's list.

[/ QUOTE ]

I meant the reaction I get at the tables, but I hear you.

Thanks to everyone on this thread, by the way. This has been a very enlightening dicusssion.

[11t]

I folded hand 1 but I called hand 2 and he flipped over 86os and spiked the 8

[11t]

I based both of my judgments on how I felt about the players, in hand 1 the player was very tight, he was chip leader the majority of the tournament and just let himself get blinded down. He showed AK.

2nd hand the guy was very loose and I had folded my bb to a bunch of raises and he must have felt I was weak.

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
I folded hand 1 but I called hand 2 and he flipped over 86os and spiked the 8

[/ QUOTE ]

this is why you have to err on making the villain's range wide.

there is some chance he's going to push with total junk, but since we can't reasonably include 86o in the range, we definitely have to include borderline hands like K6 (which i would push with as SB). and not including K9s is just silly.

if you're willing to call with any 2 getting 2:1, shouldn't you be willing to call with much better than any 2 getting close to 2:1?

[schwza]

i would say the 55 is an easy fold b/c of the BB left to act. if i were the BB it'd be a tougher choice.

[schwza]

the only reason i would consider folding the KT hand is that i want to keep the bubble period going. with 1/2 the chips and relatively even other guys, i'm all-in pretty much every hand, and it'll be a lot of blinds to steal.