The Last Frontier: Undeveloped AK.

[jason_t]

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In general, I agree. But not in this hand, on this river.

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What does this river have to do with it?

[Mike Gallo]

So do I. And I know occasionally some such instances occur on the river, and I wish I were better at recognizing those

You will in time.

[Nick C]

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In general, I agree. But not in this hand, on this river.

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What does this river have to do with it?

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What I meant by that was, in the posted hand, I think that (1) there's a better chance on the river that Villain will bluff with a worse hand than call with one, and (2) I think he'll pretty much always call with a better hand.

I'm not entirely sure about either of these things, but that's what I meant. I think checking the river is best. And, after that, I probably would call, though I wouldn't really expect to win.

I think you played the hand fine on every street.

[Mike Gallo]

When I have a hand that has less of a chance of winning then losing, I bet if I go first.

If I have a hand where I think someone will call with a worse hand, I bet the river.

If someone will bet when I check, but fold when I bet, I will check call.

For this hand, hero had 0 reads. In those spots, I will bluff more for several reasons.

[jason_t]

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If I have a hand where I think someone will call with a worse hand, I bet the river.

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But I don't think I'm being called by a worse hand here.

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If someone will bet when I check, but fold when I bet, I will check call.

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I thought since he raised the flop, called my 3-bet and called my turn bet, there was a strong possibility that he'd bet if checked too and he'd certainly fold if he had a worse hand.

[Nick C]

By the way, here are three hands I think Villain might very well fold to a river bet: A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], and A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. How likely is it that Villain has any of these hands? Not so very likely, in my opinion, though I do get cold-called with AKo with some regularity, and the possibility that that's what Villain has is something to consider, even though pushing him off of any of these hands will merely avoid a chop.

[jason_t]

Is this situation common enough that a river bet to induce a fold is better than a check to induce a bluff?

[Mike Gallo]

Makes sense.

I do not disagree with your line, I think you played the hand fine. I would have played it the same way.

However, I enjoy playing devil's advocate and discuss different ways to play the hand.

[jason_t]

Villian had K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and MHIG. Thanks to all for the interesting discussion. Personally, the biggest development I've gone through as a player in the past few weeks is mixing up my game and taking different lines, and playing unimproved overcards on the river. Discussions such as this one have contributed to that.

[Nick C]

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Is this situation common enough that a river bet to induce a fold is better than a check to induce a bluff?

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Not in this hand, in my opinion. Among other things, I think your unknown Villain will call with AxKc sometimes, and when that's his plan, bet-folding and check-calling the river would be a break-even proposition for you, basically (though technically not quite, if I'm doing the math correctly, because of the rake). But often Villain will hold other hands. And occasionally (though rarely) he'll bluff-raise with his AxKc, which would cut into your expectation.