On the Bubble - intereting puzzle

[Mr_J]

Nice one.

Button is nearly out, so do you play it safe for an ITM or take advantage of the other players who will probally play it safe?

Exact same number of chips??? Ok. I understand why you want to just raise. You want to be able to get away from a BB monster. How often will he have a monster though? Even if he is loose (fish), he is more likely to fold than usual since BB is nearly out of it. I would probally take advantage of someone being so shortstacked and push. If you successfully stole, then you become the bigstack and get to bully the other around why keeping shortstack alive (I love doing this).

It isn't surprising that a guy called with AK in this sort of situation.

*edited to say I wouldn't push vs all opponents. If they were maniacs I'd fold.

[microbet]

I'd only mini-raise if I've seen some evidence that it is likely to work, but you brought up a good point about chip stacks and finishing position. I play in the $11s and it seems like most players get very careful on the bubble, but don't immediately make an adjustment when they get in the money, which makes it a fairly common occurance to come into the money shortstacked and come out with a 1st or 2nd.

I think as I move up levels it will be definately something to watch how the end-game skill levels impact the borderline 'play for first or settle for third' decisions.

[Scuba Chuck]

I am not willing to go broke on this hand, there is no way I go all in preflop. The worst thing you can do in a SNG is finish 4th, and pushing brings a 4th place finish into the realm of possibility.

I hate to burst your bubble, but pushing doesn't bring about 4th place. Calling does.

[Roan]

[ QUOTE ]
I am not willing to go broke on this hand, there is no way I go all in preflop. The worst thing you can do in a SNG is finish 4th, and pushing brings a 4th place finish into the realm of possibility.

I hate to burst your bubble, but pushing doesn't bring about 4th place. Calling does.

[/ QUOTE ]


I dont think that my bubble is burst. Since you and the BB have equal stacks if you push and get called and then lose you finish 4th no?

[Mr_J]

Unless BB is a maniac, BB won't call without a premium hand (thx to shortstack) and it's very unlikely he has one.

[Roan]

[ QUOTE ]
Unless BB is a maniac, BB won't call without a premium hand (thx to shortstack) and it's very unlikely he has one.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with everthing you say, it is unlikely. My point is that I would rather have a sure fire ITM finish than risk either him having a premium hand or calling and sucking out

[TheAmp]

Very interesting post, And one of those "critical plays" that really make a difference.
strong arguments have been made for folding, raising and pushing (the only consensus is that calling is the worst play).
As eastbay mentioned, the type of player you are up against is a key element in this situation.
lets analyze the play as a function of the BB's playing style:
1) maniac - it seems everyone agrees that folding is the best play in this case. this is because the maniac will call too often when you push, and push himself when you just raise. the maniac will give away not only his own equity but yours as well : the other two players will gain tremendously if 6000 chips go in the middle right there. in this situation the maniac gains from his style, but he should be punished later.
2) Tight - in this case you have a lot of folding equity. it seems best to just raise here because if he moves in on you it means that you are most likely beat and that he has a monster. moving in therefore gains little (in comparison to raising) but risks a lot.
3) no read - tough decision. the risks described above are just to big to bet, therefore my preferred play is to fold. I am well aware that most likely the best hand is being folded, but that is not so bad. we all know situations where better hands should be folded (versus all-in in the bubble), and this should be an extension of those ideas.

[rachelwxm]

Tough one.

I want to add to the complexity here. Do you ever think of calling here? If I put in another 200 and have a shot of taking back 600 back on flop if bb does not hit anything. That's pretty good odds unless bb is going to raise like >70% of time.

This is one example where EV deviates significantly from ChipEV; I estimate if you know bb would call, you need to win 75% of time to justify this push. Thus I am not sure if bb should call with AK here if he assumes you would push with any two.

So I think if bb is not particularly aggressive, calling is pretty attractive. If you are raised, curse and fold. [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

[alittle]

[ QUOTE ]
Tough one.

I want to add to the complexity here. Do you ever think of calling here? If I put in another 200 and have a shot of taking back 600 back on flop if bb does not hit anything. That's pretty good odds unless bb is going to raise like >70% of time.

This is one example where EV deviates significantly from ChipEV; I estimate if you know bb would call, you need to win 75% of time to justify this push. Thus I am not sure if bb should call with AK here if he assumes you would push with any two.

So I think if bb is not particularly aggressive, calling is pretty attractive. If you are raised, curse and fold. [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]
First off, I agree with most of the analysis to push or fold based on the type of player. I sometimes run into this siutation and don't have a feel for how the BB will act when on the bubble. I don't think calling is the right action, but I will sometimes do it to get a read for later and to feign weakness.

I want to see if he will just check (terrible) or raise, and many times I'll see a min raise (even worse). In the smaller games, it seems like this happens a lot. I'll fold to a real raise or all-in, probably come in over the top of a min raise, and obviously play out if he checks. If my hand is fairly weak, I may even fold to the min raise so I can make him think I am timid and push him around later.

It only costs half the blind to get some info and possibly create some deception. Of course, that assumes anyone is paying attention.

[sofere]

As every one says I think it is very read buy-in/read dependent.

The past few days I've been in this situation with mid pockets and have been consistently been called by AJ+ (Stars 11s). It does seem that many players will play very similarly against a 2.5-3xbb raise as a minraise, so I may start to test that out instead of pushing, even though it hurts me deeply whenever I minraise.