Would you fold AA in this senario?

[valenzuela]

[ QUOTE ]
"I can't understand why you'd want to fold here"

Look at the maths examples. It's not about being ahead, with AA you are easily ahead (unless someone else has AA). It's whether it is more profitable to fold and slide into the money, and it looks like it is.

I think one thing needs to be made clear here:

If you lose, do you share equal third, or do they decide place by hand strength?

[/ QUOTE ]

If u have the same skill as the other players 60% is the magical number. I read party rules and they said nothing about it..the most logical thing would be split third place money. Anyway I just realized that if this ever happens to you , you must call because:
u are defending a blind and the blinds are now huge.

[bugstud]

[quote
Best scenario is you are up against KK and 2 AK. That way everyone is almost drawing dead (ruling out str8s).



[/ QUOTE ]

2 QQ's and AK

87%

[Mr_J]

"and the blinds are now huge."

This is a $10 sng, so we might not even be at level 4 [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

You are missing the cost of buyin.

If 3rd place prizemoney is split, that obviously gives a pretty good boost to the EV for calling. Surely the worst party can do here is split it. Maybe you're lucky enough that placing is judged by hand strength? Doubt it.

But yeh 60% is close to the mark when you count the split 3rd prize. Win% should be higher for both since you can outplay opponents, and 2nd% should be a bit higher than 3rd for folding.

Now it really depends on the range of hands you put the opponent on. You could have as much as a 93% shot, and as low as 30% (that I bothered to look at anyway).

It'd help if we knew blind sizes. 1st guy could be stealing w/ Ax, 2nd guy might have a good PP or high Ax, say TT or AQ. 3rd guy might have KK/QQ and you with AA. I wouldn't worry about being up against AA.

[Mr_J]

"2 QQ's and AK

87%"

If both AK for AA-KK-AK-AK are unsuited, that gives >93%.

[BigDave]

If my goal is to make it in the money, I fold.
If my goal is to win this thing, I call.

In the case that this is a $10 SNG, I will call every single time.

[Gramps]

There's no "splitting of 3rd place prize money," that's not how it works in NL tournies (absent some odd made up rule). Whoever gets 2nd out of the 4 players in the all-in (if you call) gets 3rd.

Your Aces will win close to 60% of the time against your opponents' likely range of hands (and I'm really giving them the benefit of the doubt - like AK/AQ and 88-AA - in a $10 SNG you'll probably see a wider range of A-x's which favors your AA even more). Of the (slightly more) than 40% of the time that they don't, they'll get 2nd about 2/3 of the time (against your opponents' likely range of hands). Thus, by calling this all-in, you will finish out of the money approx. 15% of the time.

So, 85% (approx.) of the time you finish in the money. That breaks down (roughly) to about 1/3 (28%) 3rd places. Of the times you win the 4-way all-in (assuming about 57% of the time about), you'll get first the vast majority of the rest of the time with your 4:1 chip lead HU. Say you win 3/4 of those (I don't have a formula for %s there) that means 43% 1st, and 14% of the time 2nd.

.43 (50) = 21.50
.14 (30) = 4.20
.28 (20) = 5.60

$31.30 on average by calling (roughly). Even if you have a skill edge on the other players, I highly doubt that your expectation would be close to $31.30 if you were 100% guaranteed (assuming no ties in the 3-player all-in if you fold your Aces) to be in a 3-player 9k:3k:3k chip situation (with you having 3k).

[Nottom]

[ QUOTE ]
There's no "splitting of 3rd place prize money," that's not how it works in NL tournies (absent some odd made up rule). Whoever gets 2nd out of the 4 players in the all-in (if you call) gets 3rd.

[/ QUOTE ]

Every tourney I have ever played in places people according to how many chips they had before the hand started.

[Gramps]

[ QUOTE ]
Every tourney I have ever played in places people according to how many chips they had before the hand started.

[/ QUOTE ]

Same here. And my understanding is in the Party SNG structure (or any other tournament) when the players have the same # of chips (which is rare), the tiebreaker is who beat whom on the last hand. Hence, it would be very difficult to finish out of the money by calling with Aces.

[niin]

[ QUOTE ]
But I see a lot of players who go all in with TT, JJ, KQ, and such... those hands have more outs and lower your chances of winning that hand down between 50-60%

[/ QUOTE ]

Er. Huh? How does JJ and TT have more 'outs' to beat AA? They have 2. Just as many as AA, and if AA hits one of their outs it virtually doesn't matter what the others do.

KQ can hit one of it's 6 'outs' to make a pair. And lose. It has to hit 2 of its outs to win.

In your example of AA vs TT vs JJ vs KQ, AA indeed does only have a 56% chance to win. Against 3 other opponents. The others have about a 15% chance to win.

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=732700

[bigredlemon]

I went all in as the chipleader with KK once, trying to induce a call by faking a steal. Got called by TT, QQ, and AJ!!?? The Q flopped a set and became the new leader. I lost half my stack. Not sure what it has to do with this thread, I just like telling the story.