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| View Poll Results: My favorite is... | |||
| George W. Bush because he is chosen by God and that's good enough for me |
   
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3 | 7.69% |
| Laura Bush because as the president said four more years of this great first lady is a benefit of his reelection |
  
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2 | 5.13% |
| Jenna and Barbara because they are good kids and we should consider them off limits |
  
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10 | 25.64% |
| Barbara Bush because when you look in the dictionary for the word MOM you will find her beautiful portrait |
  
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0 | 0% |
| George H W Bush because I truly believe that he is the father we'd all like to have |
  
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1 | 2.56% |
| Jeb Bush because the country needs hope when George W Bush cannot run for a third term |
  
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3 | 7.69% |
| George Prescott Bush because one day he too will make a wonderful president and he's already an inspirational role model |
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0 | 0% |
| Noelle Bush because I admire her great courage |
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0 | 0% |
| This is not a fair poll, you meanie. Why can't I select all of these wonderful people? |
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2 | 5.13% |
| Barney the dog because it's not his fault, he's just a dog, and I hope one day he will piss on every evil member of this organized crime cartel |
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18 | 46.15% |
| Voters: 39. You may not vote on this poll | |||
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#21
01-25-2005, 06:05 PM
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Re: POLL: flop decisions (2 hands)
[ QUOTE ]
Don't you guys think stakes might effect your decision as well? Would you do the same thing if playing $.5/$1 vs $30/$60? [/ QUOTE ] It depends on the players, not the stakes. Rob 
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#22
01-25-2005, 06:20 PM
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Re: POLL: flop decisions (2 hands)
I raise first hand hoping to spike trips or catch a jack and adding more money to the pot. I raise primarily to get my free card on the turn. If a Q K or A comes out on the turn or the SB re-raises on the flop, I drop the hand. I'm only cautious because of the possible flush draw and higher pocket pair, but the pot odds should still be there.
Second hand I fold. Someone probably has a pocket pair higher if they're raising and you only have two outs.
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#23
01-25-2005, 06:35 PM
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Re: POLL: flop decisions (2 hands)
doh, i didn't notice that you were check-raised by SB in hand 2 w/ 2 cold callers...?
i voted call & 3-bet, but i think it's a call and call now. 1 guy being on a [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] draw i get; but am i ahead of all 3? i'm very suspicious...
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#24
01-25-2005, 06:35 PM
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Re: POLL: flop decisions (2 hands)
[ QUOTE ]
I raise first hand hoping to spike trips or catch a jack and adding more money to the pot. I raise primarily to get my free card on the turn. I'm only cautious because of the possible flush draw, but the pot odds should still be there. Second hand I fold. Someone probably has a pocket pair higher if they're raising and you only have two outs. [/ QUOTE ] Hand #1: Raise hoping to spike trips or a jack. You are getting about 8:1 to improve and you are raising 4 other people. By raising, you are getting 4:1 so this isn't a "value" raise on just the hopes that you improve. You would mainly make a raise like this because you think you have the best hand. But even if you think you do have the best hand, you shouldn't always take the immediate EV. This is one of those times where you pass up on some (maybe) small EV to exploit a larger edge on the turn (should a safe card come off). I raise primarily to get my free card. Hero should not take a free card on the turn. His hand is vulerable to free cards (not the other way around). The hero should be betting/raising the turn should a friendly card hit. I'm only cautios because of the possible flush draw. It is far more likely that no one has a flush draw. The odds that you will flop a flush draw of a given suit are about the same as that of flopping a set. So for example, you will flop a set about once every 145 hands. You will flop a [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] flush draw about once every 150 hands. This of course assumes that you play every hand. So it is very "difficult" to flop a flush draw of a given suit. As a follow up: When 10 people are delt in a hand and there is a possible flush draw on the flop (and you have none of that suit), there is only a ~37% chance that a flush draw is possible (that is if no one folded preflop). When you hold one of the flush cards, the % that someone was delt a flush draw dips to just ~32%. Because people fold hands preflop, the chance that a flush draw is out against you goes down even more. Brad
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#26
01-25-2005, 07:31 PM
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Re: POLL: flop decisions (2 hands)
[ QUOTE ]
Good thread. What I find interesting is that roughly half of all 2+2'ers responding got 'em wrong (including me). [/ QUOTE ] much more than that really. 90% of respondents are likely answering call-call or raise-raise. ------------- wow, a lot more folds than the last time i checked. folding either of these is very wrong.
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#27
01-25-2005, 07:38 PM
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Re: POLL: flop decisions (2 hands)
Without seeing any replies, I chose raise and call
Raise on 1 because I have top friggin' pair in an unraised pot, likely to get a free card on fourth street. Call on 2 because SB is probably protecting an SB special and I'm probably behind. Since I've got position on him, I'll call and see fourth street and work from there. Read-dependant, if SB is a solid player I am likely to shut down unless I get a diamond or an 8
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#28
01-25-2005, 07:56 PM
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Re: POLL: flop decisions (2 hands)
[ QUOTE ]
The odds that you will flop a flush draw of a given suit are about the same as that of flopping a set. So for example, you will flop a set about once every 145 hands. You will flop a [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] flush draw about once every 150 hands. [/ QUOTE ] There are 47 unseen cards among which 11 are diamonds (assuming you don't hold any diamond, which Hero didn't in this case). The probability that one player will get 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]s is (11/47)(10/46)= 5.1%. Thus, the probability one player WON'T get 2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]s is P(not)=94.9%. The probability none of these 4 player going to the flop has 2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]s is P(not)^4= 0.949^4= 81% The probability that any one of those 4 players going to the flop holds 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]s is about 1:4 (in reality less since one player folds the flop which indicates he's not on a flushdraw). I think you're calculation must be suspect and not to relevant, even though I know we have not calculated the same thing here. Would be intressting the hear your reasoning and as usual I'm prepered fo a lesson [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] I think you're taking the probability to get two suited cards preflop (23.5%) times the chance to flop a flushdraw (10.9%) times the chance the draw is a [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]draw (25%), which would land at about 1:155. This is not relevant since the ONLY flushdraw possible is the [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]s. I'm not to great calculating probabilitities (aswell as spelling), so I'll be glad to hear an explanation if I'm totally off line here. EDIT: Wow, now I see you've already done this calculation and got 37% instead of mine P(not)^9= 37.5%. I guess we have used the same way to calculate, or do you see any flaws in my calculation?
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#30
01-26-2005, 02:17 PM
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Re: POLL: flop decisions (2 hands)
[ QUOTE ]
I suspect the fold votes are not all real, i.e. a few posters just screwing around, getting their jollies by not answereing a poll seriously. [/ QUOTE ] In hand #1, I think some of them are serious. I've seen several people argue that folding TPMK here is best. They're wrong, but I've seen them argue it nonetheless. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] Rob
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