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#21
01-05-2005, 06:07 PM
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Re: ATs vs All-in
"2.3:1"
Yeh for some reason I had a 2300 pot and 740 to call. Think I was just reading the numbers from a different hand. There's no way you could add it up to get those numbers [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] "You could hit the flush and still lose to a boat, so I'm guessing you have less than a 40% chance to win this hand" Yeh but you have outs and could hit another hand besides the flush which may be enough to win. I'd fold it with 2.3:1 
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#23
01-06-2005, 01:09 PM
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Re: Results
[ QUOTE ]
Even if you thought AA or 2p had a decent chance of winning, any advantage would be minimal right, so why take it? He's still got chips left, no need to push small edges? [/ QUOTE ] This isn't a small edge. 2950 in the pot and 1100 to call with the nut flush draw and a probable overcard? Automatic call, you have at least 35% equity and probably more like 45%, and are getting 2.68:1 on your money. Of course, since this is a tournament, $ equity and chip equity are not the same, but close enough.
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#24
01-06-2005, 07:01 PM
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Re: Results
He doesn't win the whole pot though, by the time SB pushes all-in, hero stack is 1100.
Alot of it depends on reads and whether you put someone on trips. If you have them both on PPs, then you have a 44% shot. If one of them has trips (which would have to be MP), then you have about a 24% chance. As long as MP doesn't have trips too much of the time then worst it'll be is a coinflip EV wise.
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#25
01-06-2005, 07:27 PM
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Re: Results
[ QUOTE ]
He doesn't win the whole pot though, by the time SB pushes all-in, hero stack is 1100. Alot of it depends on reads and whether you put someone on trips. If you have them both on PPs, then you have a 44% shot. If one of them has trips (which would have to be MP), then you have about a 24% chance. As long as MP doesn't have trips too much of the time then worst it'll be is a coinflip EV wise. [/ QUOTE ] Dumb math mistake on my part. There's 2550 in the main pot that can be won by Hero. I agree with your analysis 100%, but if no one has a set or AA then this is much better than a coinflip EV wise. Pot equity for AhTh for various opponent holdings: SB: 8d8c MP: 9h7h 20.487% (the worst case) SB: 9c9s MP: 9h8d 51.052% (the best [reasonable] case) SB: KcKs MP: JdJc 46.844% (the actual case)
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