Play this JJJ flop with PartyGirl

[SoBeDude]

Betters win more pots than callers. Bet your damn full house man!

-Scott

[2ndhandlow]

make a probe bet and bet 600

[DC_Camel]

99 against random hand with flop JJJ gives you an 81% chance of winning. The fact that the guy to your left called and is loose aggressive (i believe you did say that) would lead us to believe his hand is probably an average one. Since you are where you are with it and the tourney, and you can no longer just probe, i would push em in. 1:1 odds where you are a 4:1 favorite seems rich enough to play. Since you have him covered, (but barely) you will live to see more cards. if he has 2 overcards, you have less of an advantage but an advantage nonetheless unless he has the J or a large pocket pair.

I vote push em in and let em fall where they may heads up.

[partygirluk]

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t150 (9 handed) converter

BB (t14815)
UTG (t8725)
UTG+1 (t4515)
MP1 (t4225)
Hero (t19645)
MP3 (t7045)
CO (t16545)
Button (t4495)
SB (t14550)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls t150, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls t150, MP3 calls t150, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Button calls t150, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (t900) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(6 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, UTG+1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t333</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 raises to t6895</font>, Button folds, SB folds, BB folds, UTG+1 folds, Hero? <font color="black"> </font>

Villain is a LAG who has sick overbet all in on a drawless board v. me before, and I folded.

Whatever he has, it has been played poorly. I just can't imagine him playing a Jack this way. Perhaps a bad, ultra passive player might convince me to lay down. But i had this guy squarely on a pocket pair. Anything higher than Jacks he would have raised preflop. Tens beat me, but he might have raised them preflop. I thought it more likely he had 66-88, with 55-22 also possible! So I called. Thoughts?

[Sifmole]

I was thinking about this and ran across a single thought that is perhaps relevant:

What would you bet here if you DID have the J?

My answer, I probably wouldn't bet this flop if I actually had the J. I would check from middle hoping one of my opponents takes a shot at the pot and I can call and play with them hoping they have a nice boat already or catch a boat and over play figuring I am doing the same thing.
( Perhaps the totally wrong play altogether? )

So what do I do with this information and someone in MP takes a weak shot at this pot? If the bet and 3x the bet is within my stack limit and won't cripple me -- I come over the top from a late position. Stuck in MP, I probably do fold to the bet with anything less than a boat of at least QQ. I usually figure that someone in this group of limpers is salivating at all the calls on their QQ/KK/AA/AK and is looking to make a jackpot. Yes in the tourneys I play in these guys regularly limp early with these cards -- is it just me? I get nailed by them all the time. because I suck.

[partygirluk]

Your thinking is why it can be a good idea to bet here with a Jack.