AQo, I go all aggro in the BB against a Button's LRR. - Page 3

WSOP Bound · #21 12-10-2004, 02:33 PM

I'm still learning this, so hopefully someone will give me some feedback about my commentary below:

With your read on the Button I think this is a good play. Your read would indicate that your not likely to be up against anything better TP/TK and possibly even have a hand like JJ in big trouble. You can't fold here unless you have a read on MP2 that makes you believe he hit a set. Otherwise 3 As, 2 Qs and your backdoor draw give you winning hands.

This gives you 5.5 outs, making your odds of hitting your hand on the next card better than your pot-odds. You have to call, so you might as well throw in one more chip to clear some outs and hopefully isolate the Button. I think you were behind, so you probably lost this to a pair of kings. However, it still seems to be a good move.

GrunchCan · #22 12-10-2004, 02:56 PM

Um, yea. Pot's laying 1:9, you need 1:10. You can call it "close enough." I call it loose, especially considering the likely rotten implied odds.

Entity · #23 12-10-2004, 03:08 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Um, yea. Pot's laying 1:9, you need 1:10. You can call it "close enough." I call it loose, especially considering the likely rotten implied odds.

[/ QUOTE ]
It has much less to do with the odds of drawing and much more to do with the odds of improving my hand enough (through folding other players) to win against someone who has a wide range of hands that I'm probably slightly ahead of right now.

Rob

GrunchCan · #24 12-10-2004, 04:18 PM

So you were trying to isolate a LAG whom you suspect you had beat, but in doing so youv'e neglected the fact that you have 4 opponents, not 1. And one of those opponents - who was passive PF - woke up and bet in to the raiser when the flop came. At the moment when you 3-bet, you had no reason to believe that you had MP2 beat or could even move him off this pot. This is to say nothing of the fact that even fish get good cards, and there is a chance that the button has you dead. The 3-bet seems LAGgy to me.

Entity · #25 12-10-2004, 04:30 PM

[ QUOTE ]
So you were trying to isolate a LAG whom you suspect you had beat, but in doing so youv'e neglected the fact that you have 4 opponents, not 1. And one of those opponents - who was passive PF - woke up and bet in to the raiser when the flop came. At the moment when you 3-bet, you had no reason to believe that you had MP2 beat or could even move him off this pot. This is to say nothing of the fact that even fish get good cards, and there is a chance that the button has you dead. The 3-bet seems LAGgy to me.

[/ QUOTE ]
At no point did I forget that I had 4 opponents. I 3-bet fully recognizing that, and also being fully aware of what a cap (or calls) behind me would mean.

MP2's bet could have meant nothing; it could have meant a weak King, or a gutshot, or a weak Q... his bet is almost NEVER a strong hand there, because even a terrible player recognizes that he'd rather checkraise a strong hand in situations like that.

This is one pot where I can't afford to call and play passively, and my hand is too good to fold. I'm surprised that you'd be against this play here, when I've seen you do similar things in small pots where the risk isn't worth it.

In this case, the small amount of bets I lose by raising are offset by the equity I will gain the majority of the time when making this raise, I think.

Rob

JudoGirl · #26 12-10-2004, 04:52 PM

nice...all the way...i like the 3-bet. betting turn and river is correct too, of course. very nice work on the flop...this is exactly how you should play the loosey goosey types and protect your hand!

GrunchCan · #27 12-10-2004, 05:12 PM

when I've seen you do similar things in small pots where the risk isn't worth it.

I try to learn from my mistakes. I don't think I'd make that mistake now. If you could give me examples where I did, I'd appreciate it.

cnfuzzd · #28 12-10-2004, 05:20 PM

was there a question in here somewhere, or are you just gloating...?

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Also, please rate my options on this flop: 3-betting, calling, and folding.

[/ QUOTE ]

oh, there it is. Raise, call, fold. If you ever fold here though, i will fly to whatever part of the NW you are living in and berate you silly. Then we will go play poker.

also, am i the only one giving entity 6.5 outs on the flop, and giving him a better than decent chance that he has the best hand on the flop? You people need to have more faith in my main man, and less in the party .5/1 players.

peace

john nickle

too much beer last night....and whiskey....and gin....i think there was some vodka in there somewhere also...

GrunchCan · #29 12-10-2004, 05:31 PM

6.5 outs? How do you figure? 3 A's, 2 Q's and the BDFD?

Sure, .5/1 players suck. They dont value thier hands properly, they cant use aggression right, they arent tight enough, they are too tight. They have all kinds of problems. But even still, Hero has 2nd pair on a draw heavy board that is likely to have hit opponents. You simply can't estimate that spiking any A will drag the pot 100% of the time. Since the A isn't going to win the pot 100% of the time, you must reduce the outs for it from 3 to... something. I say 1. The A will win some of the time, maybe one-third or one-half of the time.

Just becasue your opponents are bad doesn't mean they aren't going to show you a better hand than your hand.

cnfuzzd · #30 12-10-2004, 05:45 PM

the only hands that reduce your A equity are AA, AK, and JT. I really doubt AA or AK is a possiblility, and while JT is a favorite hand amongst these players, i am unwilling to discount the ace outs by half. At the least, i would give him 5.75 outs, and that doesnt include the backdoor straight outs.

Also, as entity said, this pot is huge, even on the flop. Hero has a decent shot of winning this, unimproved or not, and should start doing everything he can to maximize his chances of winning. Calling the flop is ok, raising is much better given the risk vs return ratio, and folding this would be sinfull.

peace

john nickle