They say it builds character...

[SomethingClever]

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of course you dont criticise Cris for posting this ,you join in and say something about his avatar.

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No offense, E, but I tend to agree that this is a tad hypocritical.

[gaming_mouse]

Even after this streak I still have an overall win rate of 2BB/100 for the 38k 2/4 hands I have in pokertracker so I am assuming that I'm a winning player.

If I were you I would strongly consider re-evaluating that assumption. Yes, of course it is possible that this was a losing streak, but you can always use that possibility as a way of avoiding unpleasant evidence -- and this is very strong that you are now a losing player.

If you were a winning player before, I think something has changed.

You might want to put analyze your data, get an average and standard error, and do a p-test to determine if your data is even consistent with the assumption that your are a break even player. Too lazy to do the math right now, but I highly suspect p < .05 and you have evidence to reject that hypothesis. This should give you pause. If you still want to assume you are winning player, that's of course your choice, but I think at this point it's a dangerous one.

Not trying to be mean or anything -- but I think some re-evaluation would be a positive thing.

gm

[David BB]

helpmeout & Lawrence Ng:

Thanks for the replies.

Its interesting that you both mention overcards. Its true that I tend to play overcards (namely AK & AQ) aggressively if it seems likely that ace high is still the best hand depending on the size of the pot and the number of players still in. A hand like this seems very typical of my streak:

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (8 handed)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG folds, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, CO folds, Button folds, SB folds, BB calls.

Flop: (4.50 SB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB calls.

Turn: (3.25 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB calls.

River: (5.25 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, Hero checks.

Final Pot: 5.25 BB

Results in white below: <font color="white">
BB has 3d Qs (two pair, sevens and threes).
Hero has Qd Ah (one pair, sevens).
Outcome: BB wins 5.25 BB. </font>

I'll give it some thought.

As for game selection I tend to look for tables with an average pot of 30-36$ without too many regulars. But since I multitable its rare for me to get up and find a different table if the game gets worse. This is of course one of the reasons its impossible to maintain the same win rate going from 4 to 8 tables.

You both mention me playing too tight which is probably also caused by multitabling. After having imported about 20k hands into pokertracker I didn't seem to be making much profit on the small pairs (22-55), the non-broadway suited connectors and the small suited aces. So I tightened up on these a lot. I'll see about playing those more often.

[gaming_mouse]

Dave,

Interesting hand post. I find these hard to play too, and usually take the same line that you did -- but am not too happy with it, either.

gm

[JimRivett]

Hello David,

A couple of things, is this your first attempt at poker? If so then perhaps moving down in limits would help. Either way I think that you need to take a step back and take at a look at your game, and posting some hands may help.

With reguard to your posted stats, I'm a little new to poker tracker, however here's my take, you appear to ok pre flop (some may say to loosen up, but my VP$IP percent is below yours), your problem may be post flop, perhaps going too far with your hands and overplaying some hands, here's where the posting of hands comes in.

Oh and don't worry about being critized for posting stats. You see for me the most important stat of all is how much you win and I have a theory that some of these "fine fellows" who post here don't win as much as they would like you to think they do.

Jim

[spydog]

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VP$IP: 14.94

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This seems a tad low to me. Maybe you aren't limping with suited cards often enough?

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Won $ at SD: 46.70

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This could indicate that you are failing to recognize a losing hand. Just because you are dealt AA or KK, doesn't mean you have to show it down. Good folds might be a leak??

[smoore]

I'm in the middle of a slide right now myself. I have no long term evidence that I'm a winning player in a limit ring game. I am a +ROI player over two years in pokerstars MTT and SnG tournaments (no PT data, unfortunately),. Eveyone says the money is in the ring game, so I'm learning it. Lost money for the first 5k hands, won like crazy for 10k hands and now it's going back down. Some days party is like printing f'in money, some days the carrots eat the rabbits.

My point: How do your PT stats during this slide compare to your stats for your "career" at party? This may provide some insight into what is happening. I'm of the opinion that this isn't just variance.

[Evan]

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I'm not going to comment on your PT stats because this really isn't the forum for it, in fact this really isn't the forum for the whole question.

As for the downswing, well telling us all that you're sad really doesn't give us any way to make you happy.

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I see so he shouldnt be posting his downswing in this forum yet this is ok

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Ummmm, I guess. I don't see how they're related. This is pretty much a self-policed forum, so my comments are completelt appropriate. This is not a forum for statistics of "I'm sad" posts, its for strategy discussion. There are plenty of other forums on this site that this would be fine in. If you're ever in doubt, there's always OOT.

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i'm down a lot of bb's over a lot of hands over a long time.

someone hug me and tell me i'll be all right.



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of course you dont criticise Cris for posting this ,you join in and say something about his avatar.

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Well first of all, the SS clique has been pretty well documented over time. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] Second, Chris' post was obviously a joke while this one wasn't. Tirdly, contributing the great stuff that CDC has over time earned you the right to make stupid posts once in a while. Finally, the "No content" disclaimer on CDC's post is something this one could've used.

[Evan]

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this is the place to post your small stakes stats

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No,its not. There are other forums for that, seet the sticky at the top of the page for more discussion of it. This is a strategy forum.

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if people dont like stats posts then dont read them

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This is kinda stupid. If I made a post saying that I hated black people but qualified it in the body of the post by saying, "If you don't hate black people don't read this," would that be okay with you? There are places for different types of posts, this is not the plce for this one (I hope there's no place for the one I described).

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I'm taking a guess here but it looks like you are going too far with your overcards.

You finally get a hand and you dont want to dump it when you miss, then you take it to the river and are reverse dominated when you hit TP or lose to a bigger hand.

When you make a good hand you dont get any action cos people have seen you folding hand after hand and when the flop is Ace high they know you have something.


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This is why the post was useless, because all you can do is guess about it. There is no meaningful discussion that can come of it. The original poster said soemthing about wanting to show the bad side of variance, do you people having downswings think that all the regular posters here have never had one? or two? or ten?

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A 400BB downswing is real bad

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Yea, pretty much the only thing you can say for sure after this whole thread, and you'd have to think he knew that to start with or he wouldn't have posted this.

[Elektrik]

To clarify that study that private joker posted:

The study looked at the bottom quartile (the worst 25% of the population). They grossly overestimated themselves (12% thought they were 62%).

I've studied this and other studies like it; it seems that every quartile places themselves somewhere within that third quartile. As in, even the top 25% in a field usually place themselves in the 50-75% range in terms of skills. They mention this farther down in the study.

What this study does NOT say is that everyone overestimates themselves; it just means that if you're in the bottom 50% relative to everyone else, you probably put yourself in the 50-75% range.

You can argue this studies application to poker and its potential irrelevance, as we have quantitative measurements of our abilities given a large enough sample size - the study assumes that you cannot measure yourself in such a way.