TO BET OR NOT TO BET? 15-30 LIMIT HAND

[J.A.Sucker]

Yeah, what he said. Do you actually live inside my poker brain? Kind of scary, dude. Scary, indeed.

[amulet]

you have 6 opponents, you are not best, and even if you hit one of your overcards how often does 1 pair hold up with this many seeing the flop? common limping hands are qj, aj, kj, etc. you could hit an overcard and easily lose. add to that that if a K comes it puts KQJ on the board vs 6 opponents. you have a backdoor nut flush draw and a inside str8 to the nut str8. so take the free card, but do not give someone with an open ended draw, 2 pair, or the unlikely set, the chance to charge you 2 bets. the flop missed you, your getting the right price to call one bet, but you are in trouble here and betting a hand that looked great preflop, into 6 postflop opponents is not good poker.

[MHoydilla]

Vince if you posted this ?, it makes me think that you think its an easy bet aswell, but respect the person who said check. Personally I would bet 100% of time here in that game, no ifs ands or buts about it.

[Matt Flynn]

felson,

one flip here is average # of callers and average true outs. maybe 7-8 on average counting the runner-runner as 1-1.5? if he gets 2 callers he gives up next to nothing by betting, even if check-raised. so unless he gets check-raised and no one else calls, he on average gives up little by betting and therefore should bet right? sure he might be dominated for all but 5-5.5 outs, but what if he's not? the chances of him having the best hand are small, but is that 4% small? even 4% makes the bet clear because of the pot size and his outs. and blowing little hands out gives him a percent or two each. just seems you add all those up with a 12-bet pot and you really should bet. more i think about it the more it seems nearly a small-bet sized error to check (much bigger than i thought at first). but it's been a long time since i thought limit.

matt

[andyfox]

I'd bet and hope one of the next two players to act did check-raise.

[AceHigh]

[ QUOTE ]
Vince your hand is a little stronger than an OESD. I'd bet an OESD just about 110% off the time here. If I get a free card on the turn that's gravy. Of course I reserve the right to bet the turn also.

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree. Against 6 players the OESD is stronger than a gutshot and overcards. Against 1 or 2 opponents, you hand would be better.

[SinCityGuy]

[ QUOTE ]
you have 6 opponents, you are not best, and even if you hit one of your overcards how often does 1 pair hold up with this many seeing the flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

Less often than most people seem to think. He's got four clean outs. This dogma about "cleaning up outs" isn't really applicable against six opponents with two connected board cards in the playing zone. Hit your ace or king and see how often at least one opponent has two pair or a straight. Also, if he bets, it's going to be two, three or four bets back to him a fair percentage of the time.

[vmacosta]

[ QUOTE ]

FWIW, if you have a gutshot and are getting 12-1, it's an easy call. On the flop, you will often call getting less than that, usually when you close the action or you know whne you're gonna get paid well. You have some things to learn, it appears.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hmm.. Well I certainly have lots to learn or else I wouldn't be on here, but I think you misread what I wrote. If you are referring to my line that typical players in CA mid-limit games ALWAYS call getting 12 to 1 on a weak gutshot, I don't think you realize that nearly applies to me! I only muck when I am fairly certain it will be raised and reraised behind me (and I'm not playing cards that make a weak gutshot on a QJ flop up front anyway).

So the bet really depends on the texture of the game, but I just think you have to be cautious in a typically aggressive game. Say you bet here, the button raises, the SB 3-bets, and it is folded back to you. You aren't getting 12 to 1 at all, now...try 9 to 1 with a great possibility of it being capped behind you and likely heavy action to come on the turn. If you miss the turn, you will be in a major predicament, being trapped by two people with made hands that want you out. Now if the game is more passive than my usual games, this may be an obvious bet.

[Ezcheeze]

Vince, a bet is so clearly correct to me that I will feel a severe nausia until I find out that you also strongly agree a check is correct.

-Ezcheeze

[ShamaLamDingDong]

what gives