My problem with blindly following pot odds

[JJKillian]

wouldn't the flush draw be 1:2? Not including two overcards, which I cannot see going for a flush draw without it being the nut anyway. So you should have the ace as well.

[bads33d]

I dont know about you, but 960 to call, with only 40 in the pot is a big no no...its only 2 to 1 when your a 3 to 1 to win.

I mean if the pot is 200, and he bets 100, to make the final pot 300, I guess calling 100 is good to chase a flush.

??????

[rjb03]

[ QUOTE ]
I dont know about you, but 960 to call, with only 40 in the pot is a big no no...its only 2 to 1 when your a 3 to 1 to win.

I mean if the pot is 200, and he bets 100, to make the final pot 300, I guess calling 100 is good to chase a flush.

??????

[/ QUOTE ]

You also have the same misconceptions as the original poster.

[Gramps]

Regardless of the example used, I agree 100% with the general point. Ultimately it's not about whether a certain play has +EV chips expectation - it's whether it has +EV $ expectation. There's time where a call has a +EV in chips, but is probably -EV in $ all factors considered.

I think two examples would be an all-in 50% to 49% at the 10/15 level for a skilled player (say 33 vs. AKs), or a "BB pot odds call" in a bubble type situation, where you're barely getting the proper odds to call with some crap hand, but losing means losing any fold equity/making you the super-short stack instead of having 3 equal players and one huge stack, etc.

[Bigwig]

[ QUOTE ]
I never really use pot odds

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, you do. You just don't realize it. When you limp preflop with 3 other players and the BB, and the flop comes A K 9, and the first player bets, the second one calls, and you fold, what did you just use?

You can still win the pot with a 5 (most likely), right?

[JJKillian]

actually isn't he right? betting 100 into a 300 pot is 3 to 1 right?

Maybe I also have the same mis-conception. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

JJ

[Bigwig]

[ QUOTE ]
Not sure if the specific error of your ways has been addressed, but this is it;

You are figuring the chips you would be calling with into the pot odds. This is incorrect. Pot odds are figured by factoring ONLY chips currently in the pot BEFORE your call, whether you put any of them in or not.

So, in the case of 40 in pot and push, figure calling 1000 for 1040, needing therefore over 50% for the pot odds call to be correct in terms of ONLY pot odds. Obviously, you don't get into these for coinflips for all your $$$ though. I personally would probably need to have an uberdraw to call a draw here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, as long as he's using odds instead of percentages.

I use percentages. In order to do that, you actually do add the chips you would call.

So 1000/2040=49%. Flush draw = 35%. Not a good call.

[etgryphon]

[ QUOTE ]
I dont know about you, but 960 to call, with only 40 in the pot is a big no no...its only 2 to 1 when your a 3 to 1 to win.

I mean if the pot is 200, and he bets 100, to make the final pot 300, I guess calling 100 is good to chase a flush.

??????

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm not sure if you mistyped the "final pot 300" or if there is some confusion still...

You only have the odds of making you hand if you do not need to put any more money in the pot. You need to take in consideration the turn and the river bet. you need better than 1:4.1 odds in the pot to call.

Example:

Pot on the Flop: (250)
Bet: 100 (350)
Call: 100 (450)

This is assuming that you either make your nut flush on the turn and it holds up or you don't improve on the turn and always lose and in both cases no more money is put into the pot.

Over 100 Hands: (~19.2)(450) + (~80.2)(-100) = +620 (+6.2/hand)

If you don't take into consideration the turn and river bets You'll run into losing over the long haul...

And lets not even talk about Implied Odds!

-Gryph

[eastbay]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I have been drinking a bit this morning but are you serious with this post? If your ace outs are not good (which I assume to be the case or you would continue 45% or so of the time) how do you always have correct odds to call when 40 chips are in the pot?

I think your post was a joke right?

[/ QUOTE ]

Even if you're only 35%, and the pot if 40, and you're facing an all in of 960, you're essentially getting 2 to 1 on your money, so out of 100 times, you will win 2000 chips 35 times and lose 1000 chips 65 times, so you're expectation is at least 500 chips positive. Am I missing something? Is that not the definition of correct pot odds???

[/ QUOTE ]

I hereby move the over/under from 6 months to 6 weeks.

eastbay

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
I hereby move the over/under from 6 months to 6 weeks.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think he could mathematically blow 10K and take a 25K hit in 6 weeks.

I'm moving it back to two months.