Splitting SnGs

[Benholio]

I see what you are saying about the ICM not taking into account blind sizes, and would also like to see any kind of good analysis in this area.

If all players were equal, though, I don't think it would change your $EV at all.

Take 3 equal players, give them 2500, 1500, 4000 chips, and make the blinds either 10/20 or 300/600 and you will have the same $EV for each player, I think. The only difference would be who currently is about to have to post the blinds, since they will usually be losing chips there (giving a little bit of extra $EV to the button and SB at the expense of the BB I guess).

I think when it does change your $EV is when you run into players who will fold too often during this stage, but will call you more often (and maybe more correctly) when your stack is lower in relation to theirs or the blinds. By staying above that level maybe you are able to get them to make the bad folds more often.

This is part of the reason I didn't hesitate to call you in this spot, because I can't count on having an edge on you in future pots, so I am willing to take the slight value now. If this same spot comes up and I am playing with 2 players that seem terrible, maybe I don't call here, since I can count on getting more +EV moves later on.

[stupidsucker]

the ICM can figure in blind sizes and FE, if you do it manualy.

Ill give you an example.

Lets say next hand you get a random hand. We will just give you 68o again to make the example very comparable. 68o is a bottom 50% hand, so chances are the next hand would actually be better.

moving on.

Here you are in the SB with 68o. I would be the BB(This is assuming you fold the 68o in the previous hand)

Button will push with top 30%
70% of the time you will be faced with push or fold the 68o here.

Lets set my calling standards pretty low at top 27.6% hands (I am much tigher then this)

Push or fold?

pushing gives you a $16.94 edge acording to the ICM...

so if you consider the fact that 70% of the time IF you fold your 86o chip ev/$1.29 ev move you will be in the position to steal for $16.94 EV.

70% * $16.94 = $11.86

$1.29 - $11.86 = <font color="red"> -$10.57</font> for calling with 68o if you consider the next hand possibilities.

[Benholio]

But wait, if I call and lose, won't I be faced with a very similar situation on the next hand? You'll be faced with almost the same raise on the next hand as you would be if I fold.

By calling I get my $1.29 right away, PLUS (.36 * my EV for next hand if I win + .64 * my EV for next hand if I lose). Your example assumes that if I call and lose I get absolutely nothing on the next hand.

Your pot odds to call the next hand are going to be almost the same if I call and lose or if I fold, which I imagine would mean you would call with a similar range of hands?

[stupidsucker]

[ QUOTE ]
Your example assumes that if I call and lose I get absolutely nothing on the next hand.



[/ QUOTE ]

You are absolutly correct. Lemme give that a look.

chip stacks would then be.
1720(SB/you),2560(BB),3720(button)

if you give yourself 86o once again in that situation it is now only $10.26 to push 70%*$10.26 =$7.18*64.6%

The chip EV the next hand if you win is 70%*$18.54 * 34.6%

So the above formula should have read.
($1.29+$4.64+$4.49) - $11.86 = <font color="red">-$1.44 </font>

I would rather someone else other then the two of us put some thought into it. I honestly dont want this to look like two kids bickering over a hand from a few days ago (I would be the one to look bad since I am the one that lost).

I am seriously just in seacrh of the truth so I can impliment it in my game if it is the right move.

EDIT:: My equation is still not perfect because it doesnt take inconsideration if the button does push the 30% of the other time, but that shouldnt change the numbers much at all.