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#21
11-11-2004, 04:36 PM
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Re: Running Good (No Content)
[ QUOTE ]
To catch the only 2 cards in the pack on a runner runner is: 2/47 on the Turn 1/46 on the River 2/47 x 1/46 = 1/1,081 What am I missing here? [/ QUOTE ] 989-1 assumes the opponent's hand is known. That's all. When someone hits one on you, you can't say "Man, that was 1081-1 against", because you knew your hand! Guy. 
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#22
11-11-2004, 04:46 PM
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Re: Running Good (No Content)
Yes, I remembered this was the reason why the number was lower in reality. It does not require that the opponent's hand is known, just that it is safe to assume he does not have a J.
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#23
11-11-2004, 04:49 PM
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Re: Running Good (No Content)
[ QUOTE ]
One possibilty would be... K Q vs 8 9 flop: A 2 3 and then 4 5 [/ QUOTE ] A while back someone posted a hand # where this happened on Stars. Perfect-perfect to split, in a no-limit tournament if I remember correctly. They got it all-in on the flop. Guy.
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#25
11-11-2004, 07:14 PM
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Re: Running Good (No Content)
Why don't you raise the flop here? It's a perfect opportunity to semi-bluff here because of the combination
(1) that he lays down his top set because of fear of being behind to the nut straight with only a 30-35% chance of improving to kings full or better; and (2) that you improve to the best hand by spiking runner-runner (or the 10, but let's not overvalue our gutshot [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] ) I grant you that the chances of either one specifically happening are longshots, but when you add two longshots together, you get near certainty. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]
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#26
11-11-2004, 09:12 PM
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Re: Running Good (No Content)
In a span of 1 month on UB this summer, I lost 3 times after flopping a set and having an underpair catch running quads. JJ vs 22, TT vs 22, and 88 vs 77.
The odds of this happening are at worst (1/1082)^3 which is around a billion to 1, but seeing as sometimes more than one person has the underpair, and I'm sure I flopped tons of sets in a month, the true odds are much much lower than this. Even still, it sucks hard, and is probably akin to winning the lotto in terms of frequency.
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