Electoral College Prediction and Analysis (long and detailed)

[largeeyes]

All these people who keep saying Kerry will win going away, put your money where your mouth is. I did.

[Moozh]

I think this is a very well thought out and clear analysis. I am in complete agreement up until the final 8.

Of the 8, I strongly agree with the top two for each candidate. I would be surprised if Bush lost either Iowa or New Mexico at this point. I would also be very surprised if Kerry lost Michican ot Pennsylvania. This puts our candidates at Bush 239, Kerry 238.

That leaves New Hampsire (4), Wisconsin (10), Ohio (20) and Florida (27). It's effectively two little states and two big states.

If either candidate wins both big states, they win. If they win both little states, one big state will be enough.
The combo of NH and Florida for Kerry, Wisconsin and Ohio for Bush gives us the dreaded tie. Swap the states and you get Bush 270, Kerry 268.

Based on the recent polls, I'm guessing Wisconsin will go to Kerry. Thus, that leaves it that if Kerry wins Florida, or if he wins New Hampshire and Ohio, he wins. As a democrat, I'm heartened to see this.

[Dynasty]

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The winner of this election is going to be the side which turns out the vote better. I'm giving the nod to Bush and Rove since the voters they targeted are more likely to vote and more likely to vote for Bush.

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The first statement is spot-on. The second, well, I'm not sure I understand why you think that. I don't think that "the evangelicals who didn't show up in 2000" (not your phrase, a subsequent poster's, but the same group you were pointing to, I believe) are an X-factor, they're not an unknown quantity; they've been sampled and represented in the polls as they stand--and even so, the candidates are in a virtual dead heat.

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It's not fair to say they've been represented in the polls accurately. Polls, like Zogby, weight their results by using party demographics. It's usually a 39-D, 36-R, 25-I breakdown. But, if the Republicans had a massive get-out-the-vote effort and the Democrats didn't have a comparable one, then the 39-36-25 weighting would fall apart. The actual Republican % would go up while the Democratic % would go down. So, while they may be getting sampled more often, their greater #'s (if the turnout is big) isn't being represented.

[Dynasty]

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Of the (battleground) 8, I strongly agree with the top two for each candidate. I would be surprised if Bush lost either Iowa or New Mexico at this point. I would also be very surprised if Kerry lost Michican ot Pennsylvania.

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I understand what you're saying. The public polls have usually put Kerry ahead in Pennsylvania and Michigan by 2-4 points. But, the behavior of the two campaigns made me wonder what is going on. The internal polls of the campaigns are supposed to be much better than the public polls. The Kerry campaign supposedly thought they had Pennsylvania wrapped up. But, 7-10 days ago, they saw something which worried them and decided to continue to devote resources in Pennsylvania when they thought both sides would be taking them out.

The same goes for Michigan. The Kerry campaign had to call on Al Sharpton to make some "emergency" campaign stops in Detroit (where Sharpton is from) to rally the black vote like Clinton did in Philidelphia. Meanshile, the Bush campaign visted Michigan over and over in the final week.

So, I projected those states conservatively but still gave them to Kerry.

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Based on the recent polls, I'm guessing Wisconsin will go to Kerry.

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The polls in Wisconsin have been crazy. Zogby has Kerry up by +6. But, CNN/USA Today/Gallup has Bush up by +8. The other reliable posters (FoxNews/Opinion Dynamics, Mason-Dixon, ARG, and a local paper) all have +3/2/1 figures but for different candidates.

In September, this look like the best candidate for a Bush Blue State pickup. So, I was very reluctant to give it to Kerry at all. In the end, I went with Mason-Dixon who probably has the best track record of state polling. They have Kerry winning by 2.

[AleoMagus]

I agree...

Oh, except that I see Kerry taking Florida.

So that's 279 for Kerry
and 259 for Bush

Lets hope so anyways

Regards
Brad S

[Dynasty]

John Zogby has posted his Electoral College prediction on his website. But, the wimp is projecting Bush 247, Kerry 264, and a tie in Florida. C'mon. You can't project a tie.

Zogby and I agree on all states except Iowa, New Mexico, and Florida. Zogby gives Iowa and New Mexico to Kerry.

The only state Zogby predicts will be different than 2000 is New Hampshire which went for Bush in 2000 but is projected for Kerry in 2004. His tied Florida prediction is basically the same as 2000.

Zogby will make his final predicions on Election Day at 5pm EST.

[Mason Malmuth]

Hi Dynasty:

I enjoyed reading this.

One note. I watched the Beltway Boys on Fox last night and while they predicted Bush would win the election, they had Ohio going to Kerry.

Best wishes,
Mason

[El Barto]

Good analysis and I agree with it. The only difference I had (posted in Nate's prediction thread) was Wisconsin, but that is the one state that seems to have changed the most in the past 3 days and really does seem to be a toss up now.

[Toro]

Great analysis. I know you wanted to do a post where you made an actual prediction and it would have been whimpy to call the election a toss up but you should have called Florida "too close to call". Again, it will come down to Florida. Whoever wins Florida, wins the election.

[ericd]

This was really well done.

The only area I question is the voter turnout. My understanding is that "getting the vote out" is a long time Democratic strength. The Democratic effort is run by paid professionals whereas the Republican is not. Also, the Democrats have a much larger base to draw from.

Regardless, I truly hope that whichever way it goes the winner is clear cut.