Basic 15/30 Party Hand, but something feels wrong about it

[Nate tha' Great]

[ QUOTE ]
At the turn check, in order:

AK AQ - AT TJ JJ (<-- more likely than 89s K9s lol) QQ KK AA (<---- def. seen that happen more than K9s raises preflop) TT 99 88 - 90% - 10% rest.

[/ QUOTE ]

Okay so we get:

AK (12)
KQ (12)
AQ (9)
AJ (9)
AT (6)
TJ (6)
JJ (3)
AA (3)
KK (6)
QQ (3)
TT (1)
99 (6)
88 (6)
Other draw (9)

BTW, the idea that AA or 88 is just as likely as KQ is patently absurd, but we'll roll with it.

On the river, you are ahead of
KQ (12)
Other (9)

Which is 21 combos.

Tied with AQ, 9 combos.

Behind the rest, 61 combos.

So you're ahead 25.5 times out of 91, or about 28%.

Suppose that he value bets the hands that he's ahead of 2/3 of the time, but bluffs with a weaker hand 1/3 of the time.

Value bet = 65.5 combos x (2/3) = 43.67 weighted combos
Bluff = 25.5 combos x (1/3) = 8.5 weighted combos

The ratio of bluffs to value bets, when he bets the river, is about 1:5. Obviously you have to call getting 10:1 from the pot. Even given this series of assumptions, which are frankly far too generous to your side of the argument, you have a real easy call.

[Schneids]

I agree with every single point Nate has made in this thread.

I think the main point is the button's turn check should drastically, drastically alter the range of hands you put him on and the likelihood he holds them. Your hand gains tremendous showdown value when he checks the turn, you cannot plan on check-folding the river.

[Peter_rus]

I don't understand why there were no 3-bet PF with AQs. You don't need to be ahead of first raiser you must have +ev in a multyway pot and you have it taking to mention you position. Even in worse scenario if they all folded and he caps you get 1.66SB additional (3.66 minus your 2 additional bets you lose if he capped against your 3-bet). And had good odds to catch A,Q, flush draw to save yourself. Even taking to mention cases that you dominated with AK you will be ahead in chips taking to mention addition Sb's you get now as you have easy fold on turn unimproved and if you dominated it's around 85% of chance that you won't be improved by Ace which took your money away. Also it will be much easier to play this postflop.

P.S. After button check on turn you can't fold to river bet. Only against pretty weak opponents who can check turn with AA-QQ, AJ-QJ,44 and nearly never bluff river with KQ, this call seems borderline to me. But this opponent is pretty agressive, he capped flop. So i think he will nearly always bet his AA-QQ,AJ,44,JJ,TT on turn when *checked to him* not fearing of c/r. KJo-QJo are debatable. Lower pairs must be very-very stupid and laggy to cap flop. So you have on river very narrow range of hands - KJ-QJ, KQ + some tricky hands (like 89s) he will surely bluff river as there is no other way he can win this pot and the reason you must call river is that KQ and tricky hands able to bluff if he's not able to bluff them you must fold.

I disagree with Nate that K9s and 89s are have some good probability here as raising them PF after 2 limpers can be performed for a free card value or against pretty tight blinds. And in 15/30 games you can't usually get not the first not the second as blinds usually very loose and players usually agressive and would bet first on flop their middle pairs at you. So raising them can serve only tricky reasons i believe.

Also i'm find that raising them after 2 limpers is unlikely even for SH tables.

Take a look - if you 3-betted PF this hand wouldn't provoke such a great discussion and it was easier to play as you will exclude high pairs and AK from a range of hands he can hold and his turn check will scream KQ. Also i think he will not cap flop in fear of domination his KQ and dead Aces.

[Ulysses]

[ QUOTE ]
Your hand gains tremendous showdown value when he checks the turn, you cannot plan on check-folding the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed. Kxh or exactly QK become %-wise way more likely after the flop cap and turn check.

[ZeeJustin]

FWIW, I consider this to be an easy preflop 3 bet when I'm on the button, but I think it's close if I'm in the SB. Having the best position does wonders for your equity.

[scrub]

Yeah, but having a hand that is a fire-breathing beast compared to what the limpers and button are likely to have means you have pretty darn good equity already.

scrub

[Pensive Gerbil]

I am most interested in your decision to three-bet the flop. Did you feel that you probably had the best hand at that point? If not, it is not clear to me that your effort to drive MP2 out of the pot is worth the cost (i.e., reduced implied odds for your draw). Your three-bet would lend credibility to a turn semi-bluff bet and/or a river bluff, but you (perhaps wisely) refrained from these actions. Therefore, I wonder whether it might have been better to just call the button's raise on the flop.

-PG

[samdash]

On the flop he has a draw to a royal flush, hearts.

[stoxtrader]

[ QUOTE ]
Having the best position does wonders for your equity.


[/ QUOTE ]

how does position help your equity?

[samdash]

More likely to see the river with position and the lead.