whats a solid bb/100 winrate for NL?

[Piz0wn0reD!!!!!!]

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The fact of the matter is, WR is not even CLOSE to accurate at 30k hands. Even in NL.

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why? evidence? did you consider that your win rate increased over your last 60k hands because you improved? you can show that 30k is a fine number for a decent estimate by just looking at the average variance. when you say "the fact of the matter is" i expect some proof so lets hear it [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

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Take you WR and SD after 30k hands and enter them into the WR confidence formula and post the results.

[Daann]

To be making something like 15 big bets / 100 hands you would have either to be running extremely well or be exceptional compared to your competition. If you are just starting out, then aim for something like 5BB/100, this is a perfectly solid win rate.

[r3vbr]

I currently win about 30$/hour average playing 5 tables at the same time.
How many BB/100 does that make?
I have pokertracker but i dont trust his figures

[Piz0wn0reD!!!!!!]

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I currently win about 30$/hour average playing 5 tables at the same time.
How many BB/100 does that make?
I have pokertracker but i dont trust his figures

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ok. fisrt of all, what stakes do you play. Second you dont trust PT? thats absurd.

[snowbank]

That is absurb. Especially since, if I remember right, this is the same player that told me there was no way I could be making 15 bb's/100 hands or whatever I had during one of my posts. Everything this guy says is absurd.

[MrFroggyX]

You said:
the best 2+2'ers average 20-25/100

Then Jimbolitio asked:
Just a question, when U say xxBB/100 hands, you are talking about big blinds I guess?

You answered:
well, when i say BB i mean big bets (ie the big blind x2).

I asked:
the best 2+2'ers average 20-25/100 = 40-50 Big Blinds!??

You said:
for ME, i always put things in terms of Big bets (2xbb).
the original poster wanted to use big blinds, so that's what i gave him his answers in.


Really? So all off a suddenly you changed your first post to Big Blinds? lol Very convenient.. isn't it? How the heck should we know what you are talking about? Are we supposed to be psychic!???

If you don't have at lest 50,000 hands. Don't post your win rates. I have had downswings or break even sessions over 8,000-10,000 hands. It's a joke to use a tiny sample size when you are comparing win rates.
And also, when people are posting your winrate in BB/100. Please tell us what you mean! Are you talking about Big Bets or Big Blinds. I don't care which one you use. But you must clarify your post if you only post "I make XX BB/100 hands". Otherwise people won't know what you mean.

[Wayfare]

I find it hard to believe with the edges you can find at $25 NL that you can have bad streaks that last thousands of hands.

I almost never went in behind in my 10k hands there, much less had down swings of thousands of hands.

I guess it's possible though.

[fimbulwinter]

sorry if i confused you. i thought the emphasis on ME indicated that when i'm discussing things in general on the board, and other people are using big blinds, that i will follow suit; however, if I PERSONALLY posted something like: MY winrate is xBB/100, it would be in big bets as that's what pokertracker uses. anyhow, this discussion is completely irrelevant for a few reasons:

1. 20+K is plenty of hands to determine winrate at a certain game within a good margin of error. There are reputable posters on these forums, if you do a search, that beat small stakes NL for more than 10BB (20 big blinds)/100, so your challenge is invalid.

2. the sites with deeper stacks offer a greater overlay over weak opposition. turning 50big blinds/100 at party's 50BB structure, which i'm sure you're referring to, is very hard, though i wouldn't say impossible. however on the sites which offer 100BB buyins, this is more feasible. hell, my friend andrea kicks the crap out of 5NL on prima for WAY over 50BB/100, so there's your evidence right there.


the point here is that winrates in NL arent something to get huffy about. if someone is posting huge winrates, then congratulate them and dont get defensive if yours isnt the same. the scales are most likely not equal and they may have a juicier game. The structure of limit is fairly constant. NL has many different formats which could lead to grossly exaggerated or underestimated winrates.

fim

[MrFroggyX]

much less had down swings of thousands of hands.

I play about 2000-2200 hands per day. I can have a losing day several days in a row.. That is swings off thousands off hands.
And also.. who says we are talking about Party NL$25? We are talking win rates. Not win rates on party NL$25.. Even if it's included.

If you don't understand variance.. Please read an excellent post by Zag.
Here is the link:
The link to Zag's post about variance.

[MrFroggyX]

NL has many different formats which could lead to grossly exaggerated or underestimated winrates.

That why you need a big sample.