No call on Flop cost me $1700 pot(30-60). Please advice.

[Gabe]

[ QUOTE ]
how far (and in which direction), must you adjust from the 15 to 1 he would need with only 1 card to come?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not sure I understand the question. With only one card to come it is, of course, 14.3 to 1, right?

If you are asking how to discount your outs because of the river cards that will kill you, Ed has some good stuff in his book about it.

I'm pretty sure in this case, although I haven't worked it out, even if he knew it would be raised, and he knew one guy had a flush draw and another guy a set, it would still be a call on the flop, if he knew the pot would be this big.

[SoBeDude]

I actually agree with what Chris is saying. And I'll also say when I read initial post, my thoughts were this guy shouldn't be playing 30-60.

And not for just one reason, for 4: EP/MP starting hands, hand reading, pot odds, and implied odds,.

IMO the aggressive EP player who checked the flop doesn't scream monster, it screams AQ or AJ that missed, and he doesn't want to bet out and get raised, whereas he can check-call and peel one more cheaply to try to hit with his overcards.

I could also add a 5th in that he seems to be results-oriented, instead of decision-oriented too.

-Scott

[mmcd]

Kevin,

You are misusing the term "reverse implied odds" here. They would only be a factor if hero intended on withstanding heavy action if the 6 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] or an 8 hits. Reverse implied odds refers to the situation where theres a good chance that you are beat, and getting to showdown will be expensive, not the situation where you have the best hand on the turn, but may get rivered. This situation could be better characterized as taking potential redraws into account.

I think a far more important consideration here (that I guess wasn't really applicable in this particular case given the results) is the fact that he was a poster, and there will be a 4-liner on the board when he hits his hand. The only way he can reasonably expect to get big action is if another player happens to have a 5. By and large sets and overpairs aren't going 3 or 4 bets against an LP poster once a 4-liner hits. In most cases the best you could hope for would be maybe 2 turn bets from 2 opponents and a crying call on the river.

I think it was a bad fold, but his implied odds weren't nearly as good as everyone seems to think.

Also, I think a flop raise might have been warranted. Even if he confidently put UTG on an overpair or a set.

[Kevin J]

[ QUOTE ]
If you are asking how to discount your outs because of the river cards that will kill you, Ed has some good stuff in his book about it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, that's what I was asking. I definitely got to read that book thoroughly.

[ QUOTE ]
I'm pretty sure in this case, although I haven't worked it out, even if he knew it would be raised, and he knew one guy had a flush draw and another guy a set, it would still be a call on the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

I haven't worked it out either (not sure I'd know how), but our gut instincts are very different. If I knew one had a set and one a flush draw, AND.. That there'd be more raising going on, I'd definitely fold thinking it's not worth fading all that heat for 3 outs which would STILL be vulnerable to get beat on the river. I'm weak/tight that way. That's why I said, I suspect I don't play big pots well and I'm sure it costs me. Thanks for your help.

[pudley4]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If you are asking how to discount your outs because of the river cards that will kill you, Ed has some good stuff in his book about it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, that's what I was asking. I definitely got to read that book thoroughly.

[ QUOTE ]
I'm pretty sure in this case, although I haven't worked it out, even if he knew it would be raised, and he knew one guy had a flush draw and another guy a set, it would still be a call on the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

I haven't worked it out either (not sure I'd know how), but our gut instincts are very different. If I knew one had a set and one a flush draw, AND.. That there'd be more raising going on, I'd definitely fold thinking it's not worth fading all that heat for 3 outs which would STILL be vulnerable to get beat on the river. I'm weak/tight that way. That's why I said, I suspect I don't play big pots well and I'm sure it costs me. Thanks for your help.

[/ QUOTE ]

Here's the results from twodimes vs 44 and the flush draw:

<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>http://twodimes.net/h/?z=565419
pokenum -h 8s 5s - 4h 4s - ad kd -- 7d 4d 3h
Holdem Hi: 903 enumerated boards containing 7d 4d 3h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
8s 5s 84 9.30 819 90.70 0 0.00 0.093
4s 4h 583 64.56 320 35.44 0 0.00 0.646
Ad Kd 236 26.14 667 73.86 0 0.00 0.261
</pre><hr />

Hero will win approx 1 in 11 times vs these two hands.

Add in the actual 52o and A5o hands he was against, and it goes down to 1 in 12.

<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>
http://twodimes.net/h/?z=565422
pokenum -h 8s 5s - 4h 4s - ad kd - ac 5d - 5h 2s -- 7d 4d 3h
Holdem Hi: 741 enumerated boards containing 7d 4d 3h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
8s 5s 60 8.10 671 90.55 10 1.35 0.085
4s 4h 421 56.82 320 43.18 0 0.00 0.568
Ad Kd 176 23.75 563 75.98 2 0.27 0.239
Ac 5d 36 4.86 693 93.52 12 1.62 0.054
2s 5h 36 4.86 695 93.79 10 1.35 0.053
</pre><hr />

Both situations are calls, because of how much he can win when he hits.

[Kevin J]

As to starting hands, his pre-flop call is at least somewhat close.

As to hand reading, I agree with you. I certainly wouldn't fear a set just because UTG checks and would think it much more likely he missed the flop. Still, the poster's concerns about it getting check/raised might be legit depending on what he knows about these players.

As to what limit he should or shouldn't be playing... I think it's presumptuious for any of us to say. There's a lot of people who shouldn't be playing in my 20-40 game, but I'm glad they do. It's all relative dude.

My main point was that any discussion about his flop decision has merit and might benefit some of us. At least it benefits me and I already do pretty good at this game (at least in live). [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

[bobbyi]

His use of the term "reverse implied odds" is correct. Implied odds deal with the extra money you expect to pick up (beyond what is already in the pot). Reverse implied odds deal with the extra money you expect to lose (beyond what you currently need to put in). The possiblity of making the straight and losing gives him some reverse implied odds. The chance of making it and winning gives him some implied odds. What matters is the expectations of much you can potentially lose how often and how much you can potentially win how often. Who has the best hand on each street is logically irrelevant since it is a seven card game and the best hand on the river is the only one to get the money. Trying to make distinctions based on when you had the "best" hand and when it got overtaken is arbitrary.

[Kevin J]

Wow, that's pretty kool. That PROVES I'm a weak/tightie (even though I would've called in this one).

Btw- What's twodimes?

[bernie]

[ QUOTE ]
Off course after the hand I feel I should have called. Not because it was necessarily the right call but because I would have won a huge pot...


I am just looking for the best flop decision regardless of the rest of the hand


[/ QUOTE ]

These 2 statements don't really go together, do they?

[ QUOTE ]
The reason for posting rest of the hand was to not leave any suspense.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have a feeling if you didn't post beyond your decision on the flop, no one would've asked about the results of the hand. There is no 'suspense' once you're out of the hand. Unless you're being results oriented.

Good point though that should you not have made the str8, this hand wouldn't likely have been posted. But whatever gets it here to help your game...

b

[bobbyi]

[ QUOTE ]
As to what limit he should or shouldn't be playing... I think it's presumptuious for any of us to say. There's a lot of people who shouldn't be playing in my 20-40 game, but I'm glad they do. It's all relative dude.

[/ QUOTE ]
I agree. There seems to be some assumption here that there is a minimum standard of skill required to play 30/60. That's obviously silly. What matters is how good you are relative to your opponents. Jacob is playing in a game where people coldcall UTG raises with 52o and A5o. I don't find it hard to imagine that he is a winner against this lineup. Saying that he shouldn't play because he doesn't meet the bar for what is required of a "30/60 player" is ridiculous. If he's better than his opponents and has the money to play, he should play. If the same players suddenly wanted to turn the game 300/600 and he had the bankroll, should he quit anyway because even though he's good enough to be a 30/60 player, he's not good enough to be a 300/600 player? Of course not. The idea is absurd.