NFL predictions

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

Patriots 30 Saints 28

[WC64]

What about when the Rams won? Fluke?

[WC64]

I was going to pick Colts Eagles but I thought a lot of people would pick the Eagles lol

[ThaSaltCracka]

When the Rams won in 99, they had the 7th best overall defense, thats no fluke. The Titans were the 18th overall defense. The 2000 champs(Ravens) were #1 overall defensively, the 2002 champs( Bucs) were #1 overall, the 2003 chaps(Pats) were #7 overall. I think an argument can be made that the 2001 Pats were a fluke(sorry Pats fans).

By my count, only 3 times in the last 10 seasons has the team with the better overall defense lost the super bowl.

Do your homework.

[WC64]

Sorry I will bow down to the master now

[banditbdl]

nm

[ThaSaltCracka]

[ QUOTE ]
Sorry I will bow down to the master now

[/ QUOTE ]
[img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[Eclypse]

NFC Championship game:

PACKERS: 27
VIKINGS: 0

[swimfan]

The Eagles were rife with injury on their D-Line. If H. Thomas stays healthy, along with Kearse they should be vastly improved. They also have much greater depth on their D-Line even if injury occurs.

Anyway, seems like the Seahawks are the trendy pick. They'll be lucky to make it to the playoffs.

Eagles 17 - Indianapolis 31

[jwvdcw]

I recently wrote out a lengthy post on another site predicting the entire standings and playoffs. Heres the link if you're interested in replying to it over there:

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum...hl=stipulation

And heres what I said:

I'm so tired of seeing the same old predictions. Gee, you think that the Pats, Eagles, Ravens, and Seahawks will all do well this season....big surprises there

The thing is that there is always tons of change in the NFL, yet it seems everyone forgets about that.

The era of parity really started in 1999 imo. That year, only 5 of the 12 1998 playoff teams made the playoffs.

In 2000, only 3 of the 12 1999 playoff teams made the playoffs

In 2001, only 5 of the 12 2000 playoff teams made the playoffs

In 2002, only 6 of the 12 2001 playoff teams made the playoffs

In 2003, only 4 of the 12 2002 playoff teams made the playoffs

In total thats 23 out of 60 or an average of 4.6/year. So heres the deal: predict the final standings and playoffs for 2004 with this stipulations- You can only have a maximum of 5 2003 playoff teams making the playoffs. Bonus points go to those who only pick 4. 2003 playoff teams were Tennessee, Baltimore, Indy, NE, Denver, KD, Philly, Car, Seattle, GB, Dallas, and St Louis.

Heres my analysis:


NFC EAST
Washington 10-6
Dallas 9-7
Philly 8-8
NY 5-11

The first thing that you'll notice I"m sure is Philly only in 3rd place. Here is why I think that: (A).They lost their 2 starting CBs. They were only something like 20th ranked defense last year, and this could really bump them down even further. (B).They lost their starting RB and just had 1/2 of their RBBC go down for the year. ©.I think TO is a terrible fit. McNabb isn't accurate; TO drops a lot of passes. I think that means that their completion percentage may struggle a lot.Their strengths simply don't compliment one another. TO racks up the YAC, but he needs to have an accurate QB who can just get him the ball. (D).Their entire division has improved dramatically. As for Dallas, I think that the loss of Q. Carter is much bigger than they are saying. He wasn't nearly as bad as they made him out to be. They now have a brittle starting QB and no backups. Otherwise, I love the direction of that team. I think Parcells showed last year that in today's NFL, good coaches no longer need multiple years to turn things around: Hence, my prediction of the Redskins as the division winner.

NFC WEST
Seattle 10-6
St Louis 8-8
Arizona 4-12
SF 4-12

Ugh! Hard to like a lot here. The loss of Boldin and lack of development in Shipp hurts Arizona a lot. Not much upside with them imo. SF simply has too many question marks to predict anything better. I'm still not sold on Bulger in St Louis and I think that Faulk is winding down. Moreover, their defense is banged up, and I've never liked their coaching. Seattle is pretty much the winner by default then. I don't love their team(too many dropped passes and inconsistency), but they have some young talent that could produce.

NFC SOUTH
Atlanta 12-4
Carolina 9-7
NO 7-9
TB 7-9

Tough division all around. First things first- completely dismiss the Falcons of last year. That was without Michael Vick, and it doesn't matter at all. Remember 2 years ago? Remember the first team to ever win at Lambeau in the playoffs? Well that same team now has Peerless Price, a better defense, and an improved Duckett and Crumpler. I love their 3 headed(with Vick) rushing attack. They lack a tue #1 WR but since they have a good pass catching TE and RB(and Vick can take off with the ball on any passing play), I don't think it hurts them too much. Carolina is still a good team, but everything won't go perfectly like last year. The Saints are the very definitino of average. TB is an interesting team. Not much has been heard from them this offseason. I don't like the uncertainty around them though. WRs holding out, QBs getting old, key defenders leaving- just too much for me to put them any higher, although they are one of those teams that I wouldn't be surprised to see them go either 5-11 or 11-5.


NFC NORTH
Chicago 12-4
Minnesota 9-7
GB 9-7
Detroit 5-11

Remember that the Bears were 13-3 two years ago and that last year they were forced to play all games away from home. I am a Thomas Jones believer and I also like Terrell this year. Do they need a few key players(Grossman) to produce? Sure. But I think they can do it. Call it a gut feeling if you will. Minnesota and GB are both tough teams that have a lot of positives. However, I think that they are both missing a few key components. Both have legitimate super bowl aspirations, and its tough to argue with anyone who thinks I should have them ranked higher. I simply don't think they'll put it all together this year. Detroit is headed in the right direction. Their young WRs and Pinner will be stars to come. However, their defense is average, and their QB has shown no signs of being a good starting QB imo.


NFC Playoffs
Dallas 21 at Seattle 20
Minnesota 24 at Washington 35

Washington 17 at Atlanta 21
Dallas 3 at Chicago 28

Atlanta 35 at Chicago 31

Dallas and Minnesota get into the playoffs out of a 4-way tie. I think Dallas upsets Seattle, who just rode their easy division to the playoffs. Washington in a shootout over Minn. I don't see either wild card winners beating the favorites. Atlanta and Chicago go on to have a classic Championship game with Vick leading them on a game winning drive at the end of the 4th quarter.



AFC EAST
NE 12-4
NY 10-6
Buffalo 5-11
Miami 4-12

Its hard to say anything bad about NE, so I'll just leave it at that. I love the Jets this year. Pennington is healthy, Martin is looking good, McCareins(sp?) should be a great fit to that offense. They are suspect on the other side of the ball, but I think they're not as bad as some think. Pennington will shine this year. Buffalo is going nowhere imo. Are they playing to win now(Henry/Bledsoe/Moulds) or for the future(Losman/McGahee/rookie WR..forget his name)? It seems as if even they aren't sure. Miami is a mess. Their defense will keep them close in some games, but they're a train wreck.

AFC SOUTH
Indy 11-5
Jacksonville 8-8
Tennessee 8-8
Houston 7-9

The big surprise here has to be Tennessee falling. I think that the loss of George and McCareins(sp?) will hurt the offense, while the loss of Kearse will hurt the defense. I don't feel like this team has nearly the depth that it has had in the past. I like McNair and their coaching, but I can see them falling off this year. Indy is pretty self explanatory. Many are predicting a breakout season for Jacksonville. I think they'll improve a lot, but come up a bit short this year. Leftwich needs one more year before taking his team to the playoffs. Houston is headed in the right direction.

AFC WEST
Oakland 9-7
Denver 9-7
KC 7-9
SD 5-11

Remember 2 years ago when the Chicago Bears had everything go their way in the regular season? They got tons of defensive and special teams scores en route to a miracle season?. Then they were exposed in their first playoff games and lost. Then the next year they were back to average. Well, thats KC this year. They won't get those miracle Dante Hall runbacks to save them. The loss of Tait will hurt. Their continual lack of caring to the defense will haunt them. Oakland is a big surprise to see up there I'm sure. I'm a big fan of RBBCs in the NFL. I think that despite the protests of FFers, they are great for teams without a superstar. I think that Oakland has a little of everything in their backfield. Gannon and Collins provide veteran QB play to go along with depth at the position. They have eliminated a coach that nobody seemed to like. They've added Sapp to an already solid defense. I like them to surprise this year. Denver will be solid as usual, but I'm not sold on their offense with the loss of McCaffrey, Sharpe, and Portis. Plummer strikes me as the type of QB who plays well only if he has good weapons around him, which I don' t think he does this year. SD will surprise some people by not being the worst team in the league.

AFC NORTH
Cincinnatti 12-4
Baltimore 9-7
Cleveland 7-9
Pittsburgh 5-11

The only reason people don't like Cincy is because of the change in QB. People, they only had Jon Kitna last year! Its not like Joe Montana was back there! The coaching staff obviously believes in Palmer. They have one of the best WRs in the game and 2 very good complimentary WRs, each of whom do a few select things very well. They have a proven RB and an unproven 1st rounder RB who could step in and produce perhaps. They have imo a very good coach, whom the players love. They have an underrated defense, which could easily be top 10. Baltimore- not much to say about them. Solid as always. They'll be boring, but they'll get results. I like the additions of Garcia and Winslow a lot, but theres a lot of holes to fill in Cleveland. If one of their RBs turns out to be a stud, they could surprise. Pittsburgh isn't looking good imo. Staley is nothing to get excited over and their o-line was horrible, albeit with injury problems, last year.


NY 31 at Oakland 14
Baltimore 7 at Indy 17

NY 17 at NE 14
Indy 24 at Cincy 27

NY 21 at Cincy 24(OT)

NY is a big surprise here, but I think they'll be a great team. Oakland's age will catch up to them as the season wears on and they'll be outclased by NY. Baltimore's defense will keep it close but Indy is too tough. Then the big surprise: NY over NE. Pennington plays the game of his life, and leads his team to a victory. Cincy keeps up its cinderella story with a victory over Indy, setting up a great championship game, which Cincy takes in OT.


SUPERBOWL
Atlanta 24 Cincy 21

Vick is the star of the league after this game.