"your kings are good" - how did he know? - Page 3

Moovyz · #21 09-08-2004, 11:13 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Well, it sure is good to know how easy of read it is.

I guess next time I want to take down a pot before the flop I will just play it exactly like that since I can easily get any hand beside AA to fold since it would be sooooo obvious that I was holding KK.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sometimes reads are easy. This one was because of the very specific set of circumstances. When you get more experience, perhaps it will seem that easy to you. As far as using this to get some one to fold preflop, this is
actually a great move if you know your opponent is likely raising a big ace. I've used it many times, even when holding rags. The hard part is knowing what to do if you get called. If the board comes small, you have to be willing to follow up the bluff even if it means you may be out.

Trainwreck · #22 09-09-2004, 06:11 AM

LOL! I make tons of guesses out load at the tables, make enough of them and you will be right, and occasionally look like a genius...

Let's see all their WRONG ones...

>TW<

Bolivia · #23 09-09-2004, 07:44 AM

David is a solid player....very solid player from canada....makes a BIG RERAISE IN THE MAIN EVENT.......David probably won't do this with QQ, and Marcel is holding an A in his hand (AJ) making it less probable that he has AK or AA, so it's easy for him to put him on KK with confidence.

nuclear500 · #24 09-09-2004, 08:04 AM

Well if you think about, the size of the raise suggested big pocket pair and the increas over Luske' initial bet suggested that the Ace could hit and he'd still lose and that Luske would have to chase 3 outs.

Cleveland Guy · #25 09-09-2004, 08:52 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Well, it sure is good to know how easy of read it is.

I guess next time I want to take down a pot before the flop I will just play it exactly like that since I can easily get any hand beside AA to fold since it would be sooooo obvious that I was holding KK.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's a big Maybe. Against a top pro near the end of a big limit tournament -yes.

In a crappy 10+1 MTT online on level 4 without a player read, you might not get them to fold.

MDBLakers · #26 09-09-2004, 01:29 PM

I believe at the end of the exchange the Asain guy, David I think his name is, said "Do you have x-ray vision?" Basically admitting to Marcel Luske he made the correct read after lying about a couple of different hands he had. But Marcel Luske kept to his correct read of KK's.
It was still a classic read!

sdplayerb · #27 09-09-2004, 01:32 PM

AK is still twice as likely than KK based on cards in the deck.
I agree otherwise, won't rehash my other emails.

Congrats on the WPT.

Philuva · #28 09-09-2004, 01:49 PM

I played with Marcel on Day 2 of the WSOP.

1. He is a very good player.
2. He talks a lot (in a very funny and entertaining way IMO).
3. Everything he says with confidence.

So he guesses a lot of people's hands and talks about them, granted he is probably right more often then not, but this just happened to be one time.

There was another hand where he thought the guy had a small pair, but it turns out he had KQ or KJ.

mostsmooth · #29 09-09-2004, 02:02 PM

the amount of the reraise gave the hand away.
i told my wife as soon as he made the reraise that he made a mistake in the amount and that he was basically announcing he had either AA or KK. it didnt appear to be such a spectacular read, especially since i have barely any tourney experience, and only slighty more he experience. of course i could see the guy had KK, but i was also able to know that luske would put him on the same hand. [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

Moovyz · #30 09-09-2004, 02:02 PM

Yes, AK IS twice as likely as KK, but no solid player is likely to 3 bet AK unless he moves all-in trying to buy the pot there. This makes the betting here inducative of KK being far more likely. You can say "well, it could be this" but the point of all these posts is that K,K is the most likely hand based on all factors, so the read was good but not "psychic".