Live 2-4: AA on Drawless Board and Top Card Pairs on the Turn

[Nottom]

I check the turn, becasue its not an easy situation to deal with.

Anyone who doesn't have a Q is drawing very thin to beat me (4 outs at best), so giving a free card isn't going to hurt.

[sfer]

I'm more inclined to check the turn against a tricky or overaggro player but not a loose passive. I think most LPs will pay off enough without a Q that I don't want the turn to get checked through. Against a tricky or overagg I'm okay with letting them bet for me for the reason you state.

[MRBAA]

The key to this hand, is there's almost nothing a passive player can raise into the field with on this board that doesn't limit you to two outs. A lone 7 or 3 just wouldn't be enough leaving Qx, 33 and 77.

It would take a tricky, gambling player to raise in this spot without those holdings.

[Tosh]

Answer this question. How many outs do you have against 33 and 77? Hint: think a little bit past your initial reaction.

[Punker]

Why its such an easy decision, I may post a link to your post inviting all the other pretentious members of my forum to laugh at how easy it is! [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[Nottom]

Bah I thought we got check-raised, didn't read the post well enough. Can't check here.

[MRBAA]

Good point. We have four outs against 33 and 77, and these ARE hands the passive player could raise with that we would want to call. With 12.5bb in the pot, we can bank on winning at least one more bet if a queen falls, probably two for an ace (I'd c/r an ace but bet out on the queen).

Unfortunately, there are only six ways total for our opponent to have 33/77, versus a broader spectrum of hands containing a Q . He's loose so let's say he'd have played QJ, QT, Q9 and Q8s (I'm eliminating AQ and KQ on the assumption he might have raised the flop with those). So I might assign 1 extra out to the possibility he has 33/77 vs. a Q hand. Getting 12.5-1 I'm still not getting the immediate odds I need to call this 14.3-1 shot. Factoring in 1.5bb extra when I hit, though it's about a push -- and positive if there's ANY chance I'm actually ahead.So I think it's a very thin call if I'm confident enough to fold the river when I don't improve and my opponent bets again.

[Tosh]

I don't think its impossible we're ahead of something like TT here.

[MRBAA]

Well, this is where it's player dependent. And the trouble with factoring in a read like that is it leads you to call the river, too, which destroys your implied odds. Of course you can hope that after raising your opponent will check behind on the river if you call. I only play live, and I often can make laydowns against weak players with very high certainty (see the A9s hand in my recent "Three Questionable Hands" post in small stakes for an example). Obviously, if you have significant doubts -- as is often the case -- you will call down. But this is a loose passive player in a 2-4 game who has raised not just your but two other players as well -- I don't think this type of player will make this play with TT.

[bernie]

There is no way a passive player is pulling this with TT. We don't call players that are capable of that 'passive' or even close.

I do agree that if you read him for 33/77, you could call and fold if unimproved. Actually, the more i look at it, that's more likely what he has. Even most almost passives will take a stab with raising top pair on the flop.

Player knowledge of prior hands/aggression is pretty helpful here.

b