Fold KK pre-flop?

[Desdia72]

i don't happen to think the guy is all that solid to be going all-in with 10 10 at this stage. overcard combo hands with Aces, Kings, Queens, and Jacks are dangerous...not including AA-JJ. not discounting the value of 10 10, but this all-in to me is very loose, not solid. he was very fortunate to get that other 10.

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
A good read? In this case it means an exact read. The odds are against you.

If he had JJ, even QQ, I could accept the "good read".
In this particular case it is a very bad play to fold.

William

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree that it was a very bad play to fold.

Result
http://twodimes.net/h/?z=391751
pokenum -h tc ts - kc ks - kh kd - ah qd
Holdem Hi: 1086008 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ts Tc 236048 21.74 845833 77.88 4127 0.38 0.218
Ks Kc 22172 2.04 550114 50.65 513722 47.30 0.256
Kd Kh 10192 0.94 562094 51.76 513722 47.30 0.245
Qd Ah 303874 27.98 778007 71.64 4127 0.38 0.281


Depending on the exact suits, he happened to be in about a nuetral EV situation. However, if you can narrow the BB's holdings to exactly AA/KK (which is what I would consider possible holdings for a solid player's all in CALL of two players with a solid UTG raiser still left to act) then it's a pretty easy laydown, really.
The BB would be six times more likely to have AA then KK.
If you think he would call with QQ, then it's close.
6 ways to have QQ, one way to have KK, six ways to have AA. Given the fact that it's not impossible for one of the all ins to also have AA, i think this is still a clear fold.

Trust me, I'm not a person that advocates laying down big hands preflop just because I don't want to take the risk of busting, but I think that this one is an exception.

-SossMan

[Jason Strasser]

I'd like to chime in here and say that I would fold KK 0% of the time here.

William is right, playing scared of a lone ace, or of AA is what will lose you more money in the long run. Players can make moves like this with much less than AA, believe it.

[fyodor]

I think the difference of opinion here is partly due to how you rate yourself against your opponents. At the $10 & $20 Sit'n Go's at Party I am always one of the best 2 players at the table. If I sit out I am almost certainly finishing in the money. This hand could cripple me. I pass.

If I thought I were one of the worst players at the table I would call for sure. That's how bad players win; by getting lucky. A bad player thinks these other guys are going all-in with ATs or other stupid hands because that's what he goes all-in with. KK is unbeatable in his mind.

A good player who recognizes that the BB is also good puts him on AA, KK or QQ. Factor in the other 2 players with anything from AA-88, AK, or AQ. I put your chances at about 30%

By not playing I put my chances of making the money at +80% because I know I'm better than them.

[Jason Strasser]

Are you folding because you think your opponent has AA? Or are u folding scared of a 2 or 3 outer?

[fyodor]

I'm folding because of the combined hands of the 3 other players. Heads up or without that BB, I'm in for sure.

I just think with that many callers you will loose too many times.

[AleoMagus]

Yes, but in this position, I'd be inclined to think they don't have as many outs as you think. With this much action preflop, the aces are bound to be in play and there may be only one in the deck left to beat you.

Otherwise you are left with only smaller pocket pairs to contend with ... and AA.

I agree with the earlier point about opposition. If I know I can outplay my opponents I'm less inclined to call here. With a smaller edge (as you will likely have at higher stakes) a call becomes a better play.

That said, I don't think I'd ever fold in this situation

Regards
Brad S

[stupidsucker]

[ QUOTE ]
Are you folding because you think your opponent has AA? Or are u folding scared of a 2 or 3 outer?


[/ QUOTE ]

Its a combinationof many factors.

Id guestimate that the BB has KK or AA at least 50% of the time.(this based on a 'read' of him being a tight player, and this read was correct. Not to mention that you are now going into a 4way pot and the other hands are most likely not terrible. Even if the BB has nothing more then QQ at the very best then Id guess 90% of the time that its not AA then you are up against at least 7 outs that can hurt you. My figures are not accurate, just guesses , but its safe to say you will lose this hand over 50% of the time.

The x factor is this.

If you play the passive way and let them duke it out then you are almost guaronteed to lose/cripple down to 5 players. Worst case is SB wins and MP2 takes the sidepot.
I feel that I personally can play well from here on out with whatever chips I have. I could give a care who is the Big stack at this blind level. Its only level 3, and there is lots of time left.

I do not feel that laying this down is playing scared. Its a calculated risk based on how you want to play the rest of the tourney, and I dont think that anyone can convince me that either way is a surefire answer.

To take the other side for a moment...

The only real threat here is the BB.. MP2 can only knock you down to 690 chips which is enough to play fine with the Blinds at only 50.AND if you lose to MP and dont split with the BB then you have collected an additional 545 chips to your 690 giving you T1235. No one has brought this point up yet that I see.(nope I just skimed the thread)

After arguing with myself I am now sideing with calling as well, but I sure like to weigh my options in a thread because you dont get this chance in a game. Its good to be objective and seek out the truth. This makes me a better player each day.

Once again thanks for the great post.

[PrayingMantis]

Intuitively, I'm calling here. There's too much of a chance you're folding the best hand PF, with great pot-odds. You are only scared of AA at this point, of course, and making a decision in an SNG, based on the assumption that somebody, even someone you read as a "solid" player, must hold, or probably, holds, AA, looks to me like playing scared. I've seen too many questionable moves, by opponents I had a great respect to (for example: pushing here, as BB, with JJ, or AQ. It is very very difficult for an on-line SNG player to fold such hands, even when faced with 2 all-in's).

Also, there's probably at least one A at the hands of MP2 and SB, which reduces the chance of AA in the hands of BB.

However, if you are ABSOLUTELY sure BB will fold everything but AA-QQ, then folding looks better than calling. That's because you'll lose more if he holds AA, than you'll win when he holds QQ, assuming there's an ace at someone else's hands (although if it's more than one ace, i.e, a combination of AK and AQ for instance, your odds are much improved, of course, in case BB holds QQ, so the equation changes).

[PrayingMantis]

[ QUOTE ]
but its safe to say you will lose this hand over 50% of the time.



[/ QUOTE ]

Even if you lose this hand 60% of the time, it's an auto call. Actually, only around 70%, in terms of losing, it becomes a -CEV spot. 65% and up is marginal, if you take in other considerations, but still a call, IMO.