NFL betting - tips?

[Slacker13]

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do you just pay for that during football season?

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Yes, most of the time, sometimes I will play line moves during the beginning of basketball but I am so bad at buckets that doesn't usually last long. Then I rely on others who know basketball and just piggy back their plays.

[Jimbo]

I have a somewhat serious question for you. Suppose you bet 3 games a week for 16 weeks of Pro football. Now that is an even number of games right? What is the difference between you betting those 3 ganes a week for 16 weeks or betting 4 games a week for 12 weeks then stopping for one reason or another? You have made the same number of bets (48) which is an even mumber of total bets. If your win/loss record was identical during both betting periods the amount of money won/lost would also be identical.

Now do you see why there is nothing magical, smart, useful or different by betting an odd number of games a week?

Jimbo

[Slacker13]

Jimbo, bet whatever you like. I am regretting even posting that at this point. To me it makes no sense to pick two games whether it's in a day week or whatever. If you go 1-1 you lose 10% juice on one side. If I have two games I like on a saturday I am either going to find a third or I am going to bet one. If I win one bet on Monday nite, then lose on thursday I am going to find a big game on Saturday to put me ahead. It's just the way I do things, nothing magical, nothing smart, etc...I already stated in an earlier post that I really have no explanation of why I do this. If you got two games you like and are confident in those two games you may as well just bet parlays then, but parlays are a suckers bet for a reason because most people cannot hit 2 games. They may be able to hit 1, they may be able to hit 2 out of 3 and if so they are still ahead.
Sorry, if you looking for scientific data to back up the way I do things it's not there. I am not here to brag, gloat, toot my own horn etc...but I win every year betting football, maybe because I am extremely controlled in the amount of plays, I never force a game and I only bet odd amount of games per week, I study my ass off, Im lucky, whatever it may be.

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What is the difference between you betting those 3 ganes a week for 16 weeks or betting 4 games a week for 12 weeks then stopping for one reason or another?

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I don’t look over a month long period, as stated in another post I base everything on a per week basis and sometimes a per day basis, my week ends on Sunday and that’s how I base my week, I cannot worry about next week, where I may make just one big bet, or 5 bets.

I have to run, hurricane coming. Have a good one.

[Big Al]

Here are my thoughts/philosohpy when it comes to sports betting. I am sure some will say that what I am about to say is BS, but if you have followed my picks thru the past 5 years here, you will know I am a winning sports bettor. Basically, I have been winning at sports betting for 9 straight years now. I work full time but my winnings have allowed me to buy a hot tub, big screen TV, new car a few years ago, trips to Vegas, etc. This is no BS, just the truth. Before I became a winning sports bettor, I, for many years, was basically a break even player. With the vig, I was a loser over the long haul. I finally decided batting .500 was a hell of a waste of time and money. I took a year off and literally spent it analyzing my plays for the past 15 years (I keep very detailed logs of my sports bets). The following is what I found, and it has led me to 9 straight years of profits from sports betting. I am not advocating what I am about to say to anyone, I am just telling you what worked for me and changed me from a loser to a winner.

I only bet the NFL (regular season), NBA playoffs and NCAA college hoops playoffs. I do bet an occasional college football game and it usually involves USC (my alma mater) and as evidenced by my picking them to cover against Virgina Tech a week ago, was a loser. One of the first things to remember is dont bet with your heart, bet with your head. I touted USC more because of my affinity to them, totally stupid thing to do. If you are serious, dont bet a team solely because they are your favorite team, or you went to school there or you are in love with Brett Favre. Make your decisions based on rational analysis, not because you love or hate one team or the other.
To be honest, I think there is not much of an advantage to comparing one teams offensive line against another teams defensive line. Some guys do in depth analysis, position by position match-ups. If you follow the NFL at all, you should know basically how one team stacks up against another. The line has incorporated all of this already for you. I do look at the injury charts but do not give much weight to when a big name is out (usually a QB, wide receiver, or running back). This is when I look at the offensive and defensive lines. This is where the majority of games are won. Big names that arent playing because they are hurt get the headlines and move the line, but its the O and D lines you want to focus on.
I also tend to play home favorites. Football is a very emotional game. Home field advantage is critical in football. A team is a favorite because they are the better team, period. What you want to find is a home favorite that is far superior to the other team and the line is not correct. I also only play 2-3 games a week, sometimes only one. I think it is a mistake to play a bunch of games.
I just noticed the time, I have to go home. I will post more tomorrow if anyone is interested.--Big Al--

[ftball0000]

Slacker,

Thanks for the explaination. I'm very interested in sports betting and enjoy it immensely, however despite knowing alot about sports I was never comfortable betting with a point spread. Strangely enough I have always done best during the early rounds of the NCAA tourney. Big Al, I'd be interested in hearing more of what you have to say and slacker dodge those raindrops

Thanks,
-Ftball

[jwvdcw]

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if you play two games and go 1-1 you lose juice, If I play 3 games I have a better chance of going 2-1 and coming out ahead.

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I don't understand this. You also have a better chance of going 1-2. It is a long season. Why would it matter if you go 1-1 this week, for example, and 2-0 next week? You would still be up on the season. And if you are a losing bettor (i have no idea whether you are or aren't) you are going to lose either way. I have no idea if you play poker, I assume you do, but sports betting is no different. It is one long season; just like it is one long poker game. In fact, to give this advice to a losing player (of never betting 2 games) is a bad idea. Because, his money will most likely not last as long and he won't get to have "fun" throughout the whole season. I just see this as faulty "money management" advice; like setting stop-losses, etc... Just my two cents. Any thoughts appreciated.

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I was going to write almost the exact same thing. I agree.

[jwvdcw]

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Sorry, maybe I read more into what you said. I apologize.

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What I don't understand, is if you see 2 games
that look really nice, will you not bet them if there is not a third game to bet? This is an honest question, not an attack of any kind.


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Definately, keep in mind I am not betting all 3 or 5 games at once, this is spread out throughout the week and you should never force a third, or fifth or any game if it is not a good play. If you play 2 games and go 2-0 I am not saying you should bet 3 or 5 at all, it may be a good time to quit while ahead and collect. Maybe I wasn't clear when I wrote this. Also, you need to keep in mind that not all bets should be treated equal, some may be worth a higher wager amount etc. Let’s put it this way, if I was in a contest picking football for an entire season and had to submit x-amount of games per week I would give them either 1-3 or 5 games and never 2 or 4. My reasons may be a bit vague but the main reason is I cannot see going 1-1 and losing the juice. That’s it, nothing written in stone and maybe I shouldn’t have even mentioned it because to be honest explaining my reasons why I do it are harder than I thought, it’s just something I do and was taught to do by the guys who taught me sports betting.

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You said: 'I normally play odd number amounts of games, such as 1, 3 or 5 wagers, never 2'

NEVER 2. To me thats terrible advice. You should evaluate your number of plays based upon the number of worthwhile bets, not have some preconceived number of bets in your head. What if there are 2 great bets out there and all of the rest are 50/50s, which means you'll lose money on the juice in the long run? I just don't see your logic here.

[jwvdcw]

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I am regretting even posting that at this point. To me it makes no sense to pick two games whether it's in a day week or whatever. If you go 1-1 you lose 10% juice on one side. If I have two games I like on a saturday I am either going to find a third or I am going to bet one.

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But the point isn't to have winning days, it is to have winning years. You should take the best bets only. Why take a not so good bet simply for the sake of being able to come out ahead for the week.

The following are facts:

1.If you bet 3 games as opposed to 2, you do indeed have a better chance at coming out ahead in the week.

2.You also have a better chance of coming out behind by more than a little bit(by more than the juice).

3.By taking bets that aren't your favorites, you are hurting your EV. Consider the following: Suppose you have $1000 to bet. There are 2 bets you like a lot. Both of those you consider to have a 60% chance of winning. There is one other bet that you think has a 52% chance of winning. To following your strategy, you bet $333 on each game. In reality, you'd be better off betting $500 on the two games at 60%. Do you see this logic?

4.If for some reason, you really insist on playing an odd number of games, and you have an even number of plays you like for that week, I think it'd be more +EV to drop your least favorite game and bet more on the others, rather than to add another game.

[Slacker13]

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NEVER 2. To me thats terrible advice. You should evaluate your number of plays based upon the number of worthwhile bets, not have some preconceived number of bets in your head. What if there are 2 great bets out there and all of the rest are 50/50s, which means you'll lose money on the juice in the long run? I just don't see your logic here.

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Read my response to this same question. I am no longer going into this. You do whatever it is you do to win, I wish you the best of luck.

[Slacker13]

It's amazing all the experts on this subject. I win period, I need not prove anything to anyone on this forum, if you look at it as bad advice then so be it, I am gald you do well betting sports, Good Luck!