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#21
08-30-2004, 05:06 PM
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Re: Finding rhythm in the madness (a theory)
[ QUOTE ]
you should be able to finish in 10th place about 3% of the time, 9th place about 5% of the time, and 8th place about 7% of the time [/ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Experience leads me to think that the best you can do here with correct strategy is about 8%,9%, and 10% respectively [/ QUOTE ] I don't see how you can confidently produce these numbers. Are you just looking at your own results, or the results of a couple successful players? [ QUOTE ] I don't think that under these circumstances you can hope to do better than an equal proportion of finishes in 1st-3rd [/ QUOTE ] I'm not sure if I agree with this. Some of the more respected SNGers have results that disagree, including Jason Strasser and Bozeman. I would guess that even if you came into the money with on average a smaller stack than your opponents, highly aggressive play could get you a larger than fair share of 1sts. Jason Strasser gave a pretty good explanation in the above link. 
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#22
08-31-2004, 01:14 PM
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Re: Finding rhythm in the madness (a theory)
I agree with you that variance is the reason why losing losers play (though that doesn't make variance any less of a pain in the butt).
Also, you can also often get in with better than 60/40 -- but sometimes you're going to be the dog, no matter how good you are. Even morons catch big pairs, and they tend to misplay them just like they misplay Axs. And that's assuming it matters what they do, since the blind structure at Party will often demand an all-in, regardless.
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#23
08-31-2004, 01:21 PM
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Re: Finding rhythm in the madness (a theory)
That reminds me of something I was thinking about last night.
Suppose you're at PP$10, you have 700T in MP, with 50/100 blinds, it's folded around to you, you're holding AQ, and you decide to make it 300T to go. Everyone folds to the bb, who happens to have you covered, and happens to be holding K2s -- which makes him right about 40% to win the hand right now. Question #1: Do you want him to fold, or go all-in? Question #2: Say he goes all-in. Do you fold, or do you call?
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#24
08-31-2004, 01:55 PM
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Re: Finding rhythm in the madness (a theory)
You didn't mention your position (ie how many to act after you) or how many total left. But with only T700 left I would either push or fold preflop. If you bet 300 and get call there is 600 (+ sb) in the pot. You have no fold equity on the flop. If you know for a fact that everyone b/w you and BB will fold, then I would push.
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#25
08-31-2004, 02:08 PM
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Re: Finding rhythm in the madness (a theory)
[ QUOTE ]
I'm not sure if I agree with this. Some of the more respected SNGers have results that disagree, including Jason Strasser and Bozeman. I would guess that even if you came into the money with on average a smaller stack than your opponents, highly aggressive play could get you a larger than fair share of 1sts. Jason Strasser gave a pretty good explanation in the above link. [/ QUOTE ] I agree that a good player can take more than his fair share of firsts, once he gets to the money. However, that affects ROI, not ITM. In Strasser's post he claims rates of 16-10-12% for each place, which are very good results IMO, but still "only" an ITM of 38%.
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#26
08-31-2004, 02:20 PM
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Re: Finding rhythm in the madness (a theory)
You haven't really answered the question, Marcotte, so let me ask it again, in a different light:
Are you pushing all-in because you want him to call you all-in, or because you want to pick up the blinds?
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#28
08-31-2004, 02:56 PM
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Re: Finding rhythm in the madness (a theory)
[ QUOTE ]
Btw, you're wrong about the fold equity. If the BB has 1000T, and calls 200T, he will will think twice about calling another 400T if he misses the flop. [/ QUOTE ] Well, maybe you don't have zero fold equity, but you are certainly giving him odds to call with a lot of holdings. With a T400 flop bet there there is T1000 + the sb in the pot giving him at least 5:2 odds. As to your other question, it would depend a lot on the situation. If we were on the bubble, I think I would prefer a fold, but with 5 or more, I think I would want to take my chances to double up and go for first. If I knew he had K2s, I think I would want the call. But then again, I'm not sure how strong a player I am. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] Result http://twodimes.net/h/?z=347641 pokenum -h ad qh - ks 2s Holdem Hi: 1712304 enumerated boards cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV Ad Qh 1043111 60.92 660873 38.60 8320 0.49 0.612 Ks 2s 660873 38.60 1043111 60.92 8320 0.49 0.388
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#29
08-31-2004, 05:04 PM
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bad players make ITM
Couldn't agree more. While I have a 40% ITM, which is respectable, I find that, once I make the last 3, even often as short or middle stack, I still have 60% of my ITM as first. I guess the fallacy the origional poster made is that the best players make the ITM when, in fact, odds are you and, maybe one other good player made it. The reason for this is that, Wild players will double up off each other. The survivor of the two or three erratic players will often have chip lead and then it's just a question of stealing from him when blinds get big. Also, you have to be aware that chip leaders don't want to give it up, especially on the bubble. Bullying a leader before he's in the money is a great way to secure a first when the 4th goes.
At the end of the day a 4th and 1st is better then two thirds, so go for blood.
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#30
08-31-2004, 05:41 PM
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Re: Finding rhythm in the madness (a theory)
Absolutely.
To repeat though, I believe Irieguy may be wrong when he states that an ideal strategy will yield at best an even split between 1st-3rd finishes. A better strategy might be to sacrafice some ITM, and play more aggressively on the bubble. This way, you will come into the money with a bigger stack on average, and get a larger share of firsts, where the real money is. Decrease your ITM to increase your ROI.
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