why all the mad swings in 6max? - Page 3

sammy_g · #21 08-15-2005, 01:07 PM

Guy, thanks for the numbers.

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In theory, if the game obeys a normal distribution, swings are proportional to variance/win rate (variance = standard dev ^ 2).

As Jeff W says in the thread linked above, a common SD for 100 hand samples in full ring is 15BB, while 17 is more common for 6-max.

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So if my math is right, a player with the same win rate in a full game and a 6 max game will have 28% larger swings on average. That is a little larger (as expected), but it doesn't seem so extreme and appears to support my point.

One mitigating factor is that a player in a 6 max game might have a higher win rate than he would against the same competition in a full game. I think it is pretty well accepted around here that shorthanded play favors the better players. So the difference in swings in practice might even be less than that 28% percent figure.

Another point I forgot to mention in my previous post is that when people go from 2/4 full -> 5/10 6 max, the swings are of course much larger in terms of dollars, which colors our thinking. When you are winning and losing more dollars, superficially it might seem like you are winning and losing more big bets. Like an optical illusion.

I still believe that most people exaggerate the swings in 6 max poker, and they back up their claims with largely anecdotal evidence.

MisterKing · #22 08-15-2005, 01:29 PM

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Is there anyway to lower the variance at 6 max games?

...

Is it possible to lower agression a bit and tighten up to lower variance but still keep an acceptable win rate?

Or is there another method to lower variance?

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Strategies to lower variance come at a direct cost in terms of winrate. Do not pursue them. I can't explain it well myself, and have to run, but I *know* this has been written about in a very clear fashion by several poker authors.

An example from no-limit hold'em: suppose you have the nut flush draw at the turn, and you've got the largest stack at the table in a cash game. Three players (all uber LAGs) move all in before its you to act, and the board is not paired or set up in a fashion that would suggest your flush will be no goot if it hits. Lets say you're getting 6:1 on a call... this is a high variance call, but a proper one. To forgo this bet in the name of "reducing variance" would be poker suicide. You'd be leaving $$$ on the table. Sure, you might lose a huge chunk of change the 80% of the time your flush card doesn't come, and might lose some of the 20% it does come if it makes a boat for someone or whatever. But In the long run, if you play it all out, this is a good bet and you need to take it. Same goes for most high variance situations in shorthanded limit hold'em.

If you're worried about variance, beef up your bankroll. I think it's entirely reasonable to want 500BB to play the 5/10 6-max and up, given the aggression level. I know I won't play 5/10 regularly until I have 500BB available to me. It isn't that I think I can't beat the game now -- its that I want to do it right when I do get there, and without fear of variance.

mperich · #23 08-15-2005, 04:17 PM

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I still believe that most people exaggerate the swings in 6 max poker, and they back up their claims with largely anecdotal evidence.

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I think most players on this forum UNDERESTIMATE the swings in the 10/20, especially for a relatively aggro player.

-Mike

TheMetetron · #24 08-15-2005, 04:25 PM

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swings?

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I really, really hate you. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

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Hey I went down 50 BB last night in 500 hands. That hurt my win rate. 4.6 BB/100 is unacceptable.

Haha, swings are great... don't worry guys, my huge downswing is coming.

krishanleong · #25 08-15-2005, 04:30 PM

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swings?

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I really, really hate you. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

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Hey I went down 50 BB last night in 500 hands. That hurt my win rate. 4.6 BB/100 is unacceptable.

Haha, swings are great... don't worry guys, my huge downswing is coming.

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Met, I already think you are a cock. For the sake of those new to the boards, do yourself a favor and shut up.

Krishan

sammy_g · #26 08-15-2005, 04:35 PM

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I think most players on this forum UNDERESTIMATE the swings in the 10/20, especially for a relatively aggro player.

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I agree. My previous post was poorly worded.

I think most people underestimate the swings in poker, period. It's just that they exaggerate the difference between 6 max and full games when both are just really swingy.

TheMetetron · #27 08-15-2005, 04:39 PM

Says the guy who has "on my way to my first 100k" in his location...haha.

I love it.

Nit.

sthief09 · #28 08-15-2005, 05:11 PM

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I still believe that most people exaggerate the swings in 6 max poker, and they back up their claims with largely anecdotal evidence.

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I think most players on this forum UNDERESTIMATE the swings in the 10/20, especially for a relatively aggro player.

-Mike

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I don't agree. compared to the bigger games, 10/20 is passive

sthief09 · #29 08-15-2005, 05:14 PM

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Says the guy who has "on my way to my first 100k" in his location...haha.

I love it.

Nit.

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all he's saying is you brag a LOT. you brag more than anyone else in 2+2. you brag worse than bk did when he bragged a lot. personally I couldn't care less, but it pisses a lot of people off

oreogod · #30 08-15-2005, 05:37 PM

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Says the guy who has "on my way to my first 100k" in his location...haha.

I love it.

Nit.

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all he's saying is you brag a LOT. you brag more than anyone else in 2+2. you brag worse than bk did when he bragged a lot. personally I couldn't care less, but it pisses a lot of people off

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Poker is an easy game when cards are hitting u in the face. Hell you can play like a fish and win.

I dont wish ill on anyone, but Im intrested to see how and if he can handle it when the cards dont come his way. I suspect tilt and loss of confidence will happen. That and ppl here probably rubbing it in.

Its easy to be cocky and challenge everyone to the inevitable heads up matches (a lot of ppl who depend on running hot seem to do this) when you have an unsustainable winrate. Its not talent that is keeping it that high.

PS. Some of the stuff in here is a generalization of someone running white hot who has personality issues and feels the need for everyone to know..."hey Im running good" like it requires talent, or something.