did anyone bet ivey to win on bodog?

[lemuri]

did u read 1984? clearly not

URNAH

[einbert]

It isn't necessarily a horrible move to make a very high variance but somewhat -EV play like this, assuming $6 isn't a significant amount of money to you (but $4200 is).

What would a reasonable figure be? 4000-1? 5000-1?

If the real odds against Ivey winning are 4000-1, well your EV on the bet is about -$4.95.

So you are giving up $5 in EV for the chance to get very lucky and experience some huge positive variance. I make plays in MTTs sometimes that I feel are -chipEV in order to increase my variance, this seems to be somewhat parallel to that.

Definitely not a great idea to make the bodog bet type of play regularly, the plays I am making in MTTs are based on the belief that they are +cashEV, and this play definitely isn't. But if $6 isn't significant to your bankroll, making this bet once isn't necessarily horrible.

I dunno, have you guys never bought a lottery ticket before? Is it an awful idea to buy one, or is it an awful idea to buy more than you can afford to? I think there is something about this in one of the poker essays, somewhere.

In cash games, every single play made can be analyzed via "if i do this a million times, am I up or down?" and you can tell if the play is +EV or -EV. In life things might not always be exactly as simple as that.

[sexdrugsmoney]

[ QUOTE ]
This is for 1st place, right? As good as Phil Ivey is, he has a history of chip dumping,

[/ QUOTE ]

Question:

Are you saying Ivey intentionally chip dumps to an other player or player(s) as part of some pre-arranged agreement? (ie- dumping to other Full Tilters?)

Cheers,
SDM

[TomHimself]

i think he jsut meant spewing, overly aggressive

[krabby5]

Odds of getting "paid off" (namely, a halfway decent cup of
coffee) for $6 at Starbucks = pretty much 1-to-1



not if you hate coffee [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[LLKOOLK1]

haha i got em at 200-1 for 5$...i did it just for fun to have a bit of a rooting interest. I totally understand that 200-1 isnt even close to reasonable...and i really dont mind for 5$...I win 900 if he wins, I has a couple of other picks too but they all fell short
LL

[Jordan Olsommer]

[ QUOTE ]
haha i got em at 200-1 for 5$...i did it just for fun to have a bit of a rooting interest. I totally understand that 200-1 isnt even close to reasonable...and i really dont mind for 5$...I win 900 if he wins, I has a couple of other picks too but they all fell short
LL

[/ QUOTE ]

I probably should have made that clearer, even though I my other posts were pretty tongue-in-cheek; I'm not saying it's a terrible terrible move and you should never do it EVER. If you want entertainment and basically a more dramatic version of a lottery ticket, then sure, go for it - people spend $6 on movies all the time, and I haven't heard of anyone walking out of the theater with $4,200 afterward. EV-wise, it's a terrible terrible move and you should never do it EVER [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[lastchance]

I definitely made this bet sound worse than it really was. My bad. I mean, Ivey's a beast. He's not 700-1. But if anyone in the world is 1000-1 or a bit worse, Ivey's it.