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#21
10-30-2004, 08:18 PM
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Re: Party 3/6: Summoning my inner calling station....
[ QUOTE ]
i loathe the turn call [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] just because you are putting him on a low pocket pair you can't count all your possible outs as full outs, can you? [/ QUOTE ] I don't understand your question. The only way all of my outs aren't good (assuming he doesn't already have at least trips) is if he has me outkicked, which is a possibility, although I still have my other card + the gutshot. And I didn't think it was very likely that he would checkraise with a hand like QJ/QT/KT/ etc. [ QUOTE ] btw, i think a fairly decent player can play a seven this way. even in a small pot. At 3/6 you will fairly often get coldcalls from overcards, a deuce, gutshot draws, and some seriously sick hands. [/ QUOTE ] That's very interesting, but irrelevant, since no one coldcalled. You do realize that the opponent checkraised, after which it was folded back to me? [ QUOTE ] btw II, its interesting how "seemed to be fairly decent, if not actually a TAG" has transformed into an "apparent TAG" as you are trying to make your case. [/ QUOTE ] Maybe you should focus more of your energies on properly following the action in the hand rather than on trying to detect subtle nuances in language. [ QUOTE ] A definition that in either case turned out to be very wrong. [/ QUOTE ] I guess Pokertracker can't be right all of the time. 
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#24
10-30-2004, 08:44 PM
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Re: Party 3/6: Summoning my inner calling station....
I was just joking, man.
I'll try anyway. Betting this flop is a good play because the BB is likely to fold, so that means for it to be profitable I need 2 players to fold one if 4 times. But, it's actually more like 1 in 5 times because I have outs.
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#25
10-30-2004, 09:14 PM
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Re: Party 3/6: Summoning my inner calling station....
i didn't mean any harm. possibly with an exception for the "subtle nuance" thing.
you are putting an opponent that is representing a strong hand on anything but a strong hand. are you saying that there is no way that you are wrong here? Since the pot is so small and your hand is so weak you do not have a very big margin of error regarding your read. If there is a chance that he can play this way with TT, JJ, 88, 99, AJ, KT, 75 or any other hand that is tainting your hand, i think you have to discount some of your outs. that is all i am saying. I do think that it is relevant that your opponent, in my opinion, possibly could play a seven this way (checkraise a late position bettor, that is). The fact that no one called his checkraise does not really change that. You play the hand under the assumption that it is more or less impossible. and you are right, i should focus my energy on other things. peace.
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#26
10-30-2004, 09:40 PM
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Re: Party 3/6: Summoning my inner calling station....
Alright, I'm not good at all the math stuff, but I have rarely disagreed with you guys more than on this hand.
Chesspain played this hand correctly until the river. Perhaps a small mistake not raising preflop, but in the long run I think it doesn't much matter. This flop is 772 rainbow. You should be betting out here with JTs from worse than last position sometimes. You should be seeking more than your fair of undeserved chips when the flops come all rags, as well as betting out here with A7. When it gets checked to you, this is an easy bet. You have a real good chance of taking this pot down when you follow through with a turn bet. If you're not stealing pots postflop in these situations, you are giving up too much. Yes, most players bet from the button too much. No, this is not one of those situations. What hand do you guys read the checkraiser for? Thinking there is any significant chance he has trips is wrong. So once chesspain bets he has an easy call of the checkraise with overcards. The turn card gives him almost 10 pure outs. Now, of course his outs aren't full outs, but they're as close to that as it comes. The real concern, I suppose, is that the checkraiser has 88 and gobbles up four outs. Yeah, that sucks, but his hand is almost worth a call anyways. This is counterbalanced when the raiser has a deuce and chesspain has a few additional outs. Chesspain really botched the river, I think, giving up probably 3/4 of a bet in expectation by not raising. Do you see why the checkraiser's continued firing at this board doesn't make much sense? In order to play this hand optimally, the river should also be raised if it comes a K or a Q a lot of times. Say pick four cards, two suits, and raise the turn or river if they hit and your are bet into. That will really turn this hand into a profitable one. -Michael
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#27
10-30-2004, 09:43 PM
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Re: Party 3/6: Summoning my inner calling station....
People don't have to fold on the flop. They can fold on the turn or river, too.
-Michael
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#28
10-30-2004, 10:11 PM
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Re: Party 3/6: Summoning my inner calling station....
If I had bet the flop, then I would have 3bet and probably taken my cheap card on the turn, unless your "decent" read means that he will lay down a weak pair to a bet.
Raise the river, he doesnt have a 7 very often here. 99 is probably the only hand to worry about. They usually call one more there getting 9:1.
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#30
10-30-2004, 10:59 PM
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Re: Party 3/6: Summoning my inner calling station....
[ QUOTE ]
Thinking there is any significant chance he has trips is wrong. [/ QUOTE ] Because? Let me observe that a 10% chance of drawing dead is probably sufficient to destroy the mathematical basis for playing this hand. [ QUOTE ] Opponent is this hand seemed to be fairly decent, if not actually a TAG. [/ QUOTE ] This is not much of a read. Even if he is a TAG that does not make him a good player. You cannot assume he won't make a mistake like checkraising an LP bet with a big hand. We should not be making strong statements about what a 3/6 player whom we know little about is doing in a situation like this. Uncertainty rules. I think BB's actual hand illustrates my point very eloquently. At this level the checkraise could be anything. This is especially true because this is an unraised pot. How can we be reverse engineering BB's plan when he probably doesn't have one? Do we think he expected Chesspain to bet? That's possible I suppose because he could have a good read on his play. But much more likely he was hoping to checkraise whomever took the bait. I'm not saying the checkraise is probably a monster. Usually you have six outs. But sometimes you hit TT/J2/AT and three outs are dead. Sometimes he has the monster and you are drawing dead. You cannot be making 7-1 calls with six low overcard outs when you have a significant drawing dead risk. I agree that calling the turn is correct. The river play is inconsistent. You've gotten everything you dreamed of when you called the flop and turn. You've built your top pair and the "redraw" card looks innocuous. If you cannot raise now then what were you thinking? [ QUOTE ] giving up probably 3/4 of a bet in expectation by not raising [/ QUOTE ] He's good 7/8 of the time here!? Could we settle for Chesspain left a little money on the table? 3/4 BB is wildly inflated. You admitted as much when you said bluff raises are profitable here. That means you often don't get paid.
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