simple push / fold question

[jdl22]

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Sorry I'm kinda a poker noob. Can someone explain how you guys are running these numbers? I understand the general idea, that even though hands like AK have him beat 70-30, the times that everyone folds increases the value of the push, but how exactly is this calculated? Thanks.

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get this program

[Ixnert]

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this is a touch shady. you'd prefer that 33 folds rather than calls because even though your situation for 33 calling is +EV, it's more +EV to steal blinds. barely matters - i'm just nitpicking.


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This is true; an artifact of the "back-of-the-envelope"-ness of it. Simplifying assumptions rule. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] (At least when they don't overly much affect the result, as I'm convinced they don't here, though I worded my disclaimer to that effect badly in my original post.)

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speaking of nitpicking, your result against the calling range will be less good than what you described. your analysis assumes that if QQ calls, there's no chance AA overcalls. i.e., your range should not be randomly distributed among the calling range. but this is tiny. nice analysis overall.

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I don't feel too bad about this assumption, because I'm pretty sure SNGPT does the same thing. (Assumes that you'll get at most one caller, I mean.)

[schwza]

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I don't feel too bad about this assumption, because I'm pretty sure SNGPT does the same thing.

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that's pretty distressing to hear. the # of times you see aces will sometimes be way higher than the number implicitly assumed by sngpt if that's the case.

[Ixnert]

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Thanks! That was a very enlightening and informative post, thanks for taking the time to help. Is the SNGPT you refer to the SNG power tools? Would you recommend buying that for a beginning SNG player?

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SNGPT = SNG Power Tools, yes.

Absolutely useful, if used thoughtfully. And definitely worth buying for anyone but the most casual of players; easily pays for itself. I'd even say it might be better to buy it sooner rather than later as a beginning player, to reduce the bad habits you might have to unlearn.

I still don't push as much as SNGPT tells me I should, but I think it has improved my instincts for such situations quite a bit over what they were.

[Ixnert]

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I don't feel too bad about this assumption, because I'm pretty sure SNGPT does the same thing.

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that's pretty distressing to hear. the # of times you see aces will sometimes be way higher than the number implicitly assumed by sngpt if that's the case.

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It hardly seems worth worrying about in most cases. Taking the original hand (AJs, 4 to act), if you assume that someone has a hand that we're worse than a coinflip against (AQ+, JJ+), the odds that someone ELSE has exactly AA are about a quarter of a percent. Given that we're talking about that on top of something that only happened one time in eight or so (to be pedantic, they're not independent events, but close enough given that we're talking in approximations), it'll only be a factor in really marginal cases.

It's much more significant with more hands yet to act, of course, so you'd want to be much more careful with, say, 7 to act, but then you're not going to be pushing much in that situation.

[curtains]

I would NEVER in my wildest dreams fold this. I don't think its at all close.