KK with lots of action preflop...

THe question is what does villain have and why is he/she raising on the flop. Honestly, you have a monster hand but villain 3-bet preflop and the flop. WIthout any reads it is hard to tell. I dont see any scare cards unless villain hit a set of queens or Ts. Im thinking call down mode.

Also, i would have put in another raise preflop.

[numeri]

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Is that enough to make up for the times you're up against QQ?

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Seeing as AA wins over 75% of the time (according to my stats anyway), I'm going to say "Yes I think so".

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What does that have to do with this hand?

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Is that enough to make up for the times you're up against QQ?

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Seeing as AA wins over 75% of the time (according to my stats anyway), I'm going to say "Yes I think so".

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What does that have to do with this hand?

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I see it as you're not up against QQ often enough to not cap this flop if you have AA. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[milesdyson]

based on how often you win with AA? that 75% number has nothing to do with how often you're against QQ/KK/AA against a preflop capper and flop 3-bettor on a Q high flop.


here's a similar hand, although in this case it's QQ vs. KK on a J high flop. ahh don hur me armando

[numeri]

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I see it as you're not up against QQ often enough to not cap this flop if you have AA. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

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How often are you up against QQ? How often are you up against KK? How much will you make/lose in each case?

See my earlier post for my answers.

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Let's analyze this from villain's perspective here, who holds AA.

Assumptions:
1. On the flop, any of AA-QQ are equally likely for villain (plaidlesspez). (Weighted by how many are possible, of course.)
2. Villain (plaidlesspez) will play hard with QQ.
3. Villain (plaidlesspez) will call down after a flop cap with KK.

There are 6 combinations of KK, 3 combinations of QQ, and one other combination of AA, so:

P(KK) = 0.6
P(QQ) = 0.3

Limiting our plan to two choices:

1) Cap flop, raise turn, call down if 3-bet.
In this case, we lose 4.5 BB to QQ (0.5* on the flop, 3 on the turn, and 1 on the river) and gain 2.5 from KK (0.5* on the flop, 1 on the turn, and 1 on the river)

2) Call flop, call down.
Here, we lose 2 to QQ (0* on the flop, 1 on the turn, and 1 on the river) and gain 2 from KK (0* on the flop, 1 on turn and 1 on river).

EV(1) = 0.6*2.5 - 0.3*4.5 = 0.15 BB
EV(2) = 0.6*2 - 0.3*2 = 0.6 BB

* I'm not sure how to handle this flop, since villain will have already bet. How do we count villain's bet? I just decided to basically assume I have already called, and then decide what to do from there. Regardless, the results would be comparable.

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Why do you limit to two choices. I likely cap here and call down if bet into on the turn.

I think the most important thing to keep in mind is that we're against an unknown at .05/.10. I have no reason to think their range is AA-QQ, which makes the flop an easy cap with AA IMO.

[milesdyson]

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I think the most important thing to keep in mind is that we're against an unknown at .05/.10.

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this is why i almost regret posting in the thread to begin with; however, it is good to discuss the thought process behind playing this hand against a normal opponent. it just isn't about knowing how to play this hand at this limit. but yeah, at this limit, against an unknown, capping AA on this flop is fine, because guys will be 3-betting JJ, AQ, KK here often enough for it to be for value.

[numeri]

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I think the most important thing to keep in mind is that we're against an unknown at .05/.10.

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this is why i almost regret posting in the thread to begin with; however, it is good to discuss the thought process behind playing this hand against a normal opponent. it just isn't about knowing how to play this hand at this limit. but yeah, at this limit, against an unknown, capping AA on this flop is fine, because guys will be 3-betting JJ, AQ, KK here often enough for it to be for value.

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Yeah, that was my thought too. It does get a little mixed up trying to talk about a different situation in a thread.

nh, totally standard

nice metapod too... viva la pokemon revolution!! [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]