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#21
02-27-2005, 08:27 AM
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Re: Results
[ QUOTE ]
but I don't think it is nearly as clear as most of the posters in this thread. [/ QUOTE ] I am also quite amazed to see how easily people here say it's a fold. There are certainly good arguments for folding here, but in certain conditions (even if opponents are "bad", it really depends on what kind of "bad" are they), a call here - in what seems to be a clear +CEV sitution, and in order to become the chip leader in the table, which is extremely helpful in sats even more than in normal structure (due to the nature of the bubble in sats, and the great importance that people give to survival) - looks like a reasonable option. Sorry for this long and awkward sentence. I'd say it is still far enough from the money, and stacks are relatively short, in order for this spot to be (at least) very close. It also very much depends on the ability of the caller to play big stack vs. his ability to play medium-big stack at such events, IMO. 
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#22
03-06-2005, 07:39 AM
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Re: $1k WPT sat hand
I'd probably fold because it seems likely you only have a small edge against this guy in this hand and the pain of losing 6,000 chips at this stage is going to be greater than the benefit of winning 6,000 in my opinion. 1200 extra from the blinds makes it tempting though.
Mack
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#23
03-06-2005, 07:44 AM
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Re: Results
[ QUOTE ]
I am also quite amazed to see how easily people here say it's a fold. There are certainly good arguments for folding here, but in certain conditions (even if opponents are "bad", it really depends on what kind of "bad" are they), a call here - in what seems to be a clear +CEV sitution, and in order to become the chip leader in the table, which is extremely helpful in sats even more than in normal structure (due to the nature of the bubble in sats, and the great importance that people give to survival) - looks like a reasonable option. Sorry for this long and awkward sentence. I'd say it is still far enough from the money, and stacks are relatively short, in order for this spot to be (at least) very close. It also very much depends on the ability of the caller to play big stack vs. his ability to play medium-big stack at such events, IMO. [/ QUOTE ] Interesting, but if he calls this and loses to lets say AQo in a race, would your response be the same if the guy pushed his new 12,000 stack and hero had JJ and calling would eliminate him, I think i would call with the 99 if i had 30k but probably not if i had 20k. Mack
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#24
03-06-2005, 12:34 PM
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Re: $1k WPT sat hand
I think this is a fold. I'll guess his pushing requirements are 66+, TJs+, KJo+. I don't have poker stove on this computer, and I am on my first cup of coffee and don't really feel like doing the math, but I am sure you are positive ev here (I think about 52-53% pot equity + some dead money), but I still don't think in this situation it is worth it. Blind steals seem to be very viable, and the general level of competition is weak. You should be able to safely steal your way into the top 8, and I would hate to lose my huge chip advantage and double up someone who has some idea of what he is doing. You would still have 14k if you called and lost, so it would not be that bad, but I am leaning towards a fold.
In a normal tourney I call here no question.
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#25
03-06-2005, 12:37 PM
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Re: Results
[ QUOTE ]
I was MP. I pushed w/ KQ. SB called w/ 99 and it held up. I think it was close. I lean towards folding, but I don't think it is nearly as clear as most of the posters in this thread. [/ QUOTE ] How close am I on your pushing hands in that position?
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#28
03-06-2005, 02:02 PM
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Re: Results
I'd like to know this too, I was on the right track with taking the A's down to A7
but i didn't stop the pairs with presto 55. Is this typical, to throw out 44-22 on range of hands below 10bb? 1 calculate the pot odds for - your hand 99 what is in the pot now 7300 2 what is the action to you 5700 pot odds 1.28 3 what hands can your opponent have probability made hand AA-TT 30 hands 15% draw AK-A7 x o 112 hands 54% 88-22 42 hands 15% Kq kJx 20 hands 6% bluff 133 hands min 10% max ? 204 real hands 100% 4 how does your hand play against each above win made hand AA-TT 18% draw AK-A7 x o 60% ;88-22 81% Kq kJx 55% bluff KTs, Q4s, 74s, K5o, JTo, 32o 80% 5 what is the win rate of each range probability win made hand AA-TT 15% * 18% = 3% draw AK-A7 54% * 60% = 32% 88-22 15% * 81% = 12% Kq kJx 6% 55% 3% bluff KTs, Q4s, 74s, K5o, JTo, 32o 10% * 80% = 8% pot odds 1.28 win rate 59% pot odds 5 to 4 win rate 3 to 2 call
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#29
03-06-2005, 06:49 PM
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Re: Results
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I was MP. I pushed w/ KQ. SB called w/ 99 and it held up. I think it was close. I lean towards folding, but I don't think it is nearly as clear as most of the posters in this thread. [/ QUOTE ] How close am I on your pushing hands in that position? [/ QUOTE ] Pretty close.
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