Asteroid flies under satellites. Big asteroid 1/60 odds to hit 2029

[Danenania]

Only 1/60? Bah, we've got worse problems than that.

[Cerril]

That's pretty much what I got from it too

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This asteroid, if it hit the earth at a 90 degree angle, would be about twice as powerfull as Hiroshima.

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So we're looking at a worst case of something not too bad on a global scale. Granted it would be devastating for anyone who happened to be there but chances are really good it'd smack into the water too far out to affect anyone, and even if it smacked right into LA, the people in New York wouldn't be too distraught.

Still, quite creepy.

[wacki]

Reread the post. The "2x Hiroshima" asteroid is only 15 feet across. The reason it is so powerfull is because it travels at about 17 miles per SECOND. The one that has a 1/60 chance of hitting us is about 1/2 a mile across. Hiroshima was about 20,000 tons of TNT. The big asteroid is equal to about 1,900,000,0000 tons of TNT. Do you understand?

[Cyrus]

doom

How old you gonna be in 2029 ?

Would you say it is a good year to die ?

[Scotch78]

Does that number include mass burned off in the atmosphere?

Scott

[wacki]

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doom

How old you gonna be in 2029 ?

Would you say it is a good year to die ?

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The whole doom thing was a joke.

I'm not really worried about it, but it would be nice to know the planet will be around for any kids I might have. Asteroids are easy to find and they aren't that difficult to stop once the technology is developed. I just hope the general public starts to realize the importance of keeping a asteroid watch program. The annual support of Near-Earth Object research within NASA is currently 3.5 million dollars which isn't enough. 10 million will be more than enough to protect the entire planet. Hopefully these asteroids will make some people in Congress (and the rest of the world) understand the dangers.

[wacki]

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Does that number include mass burned off in the atmosphere?

Scott

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The megaton number is the explosive force released when it hits the planet. The 1,900 megaton asteroid is actually a rather small asteroid at only about 1/2 a kilometer in diameter and has a mass of 8.3e+10 kg. The speed of this asteroid is 12.59 km/s. It is this speed that gives it it's power.

Meteors are burnt up in the atmosphere pretty easily. Asteroids are not. That impact predictor program I linked to will tell you how much of it will vaporize. The asteroid isn't a planet killer by any means, but it is not something you want to ignore.


If you are 200 km away from the point of impact the visible fireball will appear 6 times larger than the sun. Damage negligible in buildings of good design and construction; slight to moderate in well-built ordinary structures; considerable damage in poorly built or badly designed structures; some chimneys broken.

This isn't a planet killer, but as you can see, it's not something you want to ignore.

[billyjex]

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If it's only 2x as powerful impact as the bomb at Hiroshima then there's nothing to worry about. On a cosmic scale that is nothing. Only a very small fraction of the Earth's land mass has giant population areas. Back in about 1914 a asteroid that was about 20 atomic bombs landed in Siberia. Not one person was killed. I beleive that the ground shook throughout all of Asia.

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I saw some documentary of that asteroid. It was fairly powerful and killed alot of trees and animals within the area but it exploded before it hit the ground, reducing it's impact. It also happened in the middle of nowhere. If it landed in a city i'm sure much more damage would have been done.

[wacki]

Your thinking about the 1908 siberian asteroid hit. The two I'm talking about are recent events/discoveries that are less than a week old.

[Cyrus]

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The whole doom thing was a joke. I'm not really worried about it, but it would be nice to know the planet will be around for any kids I might have.

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Carl Sagan related the joke about someone who was at the audience in one of an astronomer's lectures and asked him, because he did not hear it clearly, if he said that the end of the Earth (sun bloating, etc) would come in five billion or five million years. The astronomer said five billion. The man walked away very relieved, saying the alternative sounded too close for comfort.