NL Preflop Question #2

[Beavis68]

yep, you are correct.

[binions]

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Easy fold given this hand range.

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I think you're skirting the core of the problem here, which seems to me to be the quesiton "Can judicious selection of which flops to continue with and which to fold on combined with the informational advantage of Villain's exact range and tendencies make up for the fact that you're putting in a small initial investment knowing full well that you're an underdog?"

Another example of this type of problem is the "Chris Ferguson Problem", discussed on RGP (and probably here as well, although I don't know of any threads off hand) and also outlined in Matt Matros's book - "Villain raises you preflop heads-up and accidentally flips over his hand, which is AA. Now you know what he has, and he knows you know what he has. What hands (if any) can you call with?" The answer may surprise you.*

If it was simply a question of "how well does AQ do against {AA-99,AKs,AKo}?", anybody with pokerstove can solve that in seconds, so it wouldn't seem to me to be of much interest.

*edit: also, assume stack sizes are enormous compared to the blinds and the raise.

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I am not skirting anything.

What part of "you are only getting 13:8 on the call, and 23:8 implied odds since he is always going in"

and

"It would be a better question if he raised to 80 and had 500 chips, and you had AQs"

did you misunderstand?

[Beavis68]

also, the 430 should have been 330, it was correct in my spread sheet, but wrong in my post.

[Jordan Olsommer]

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I am not skirting anything.

What part of "you are only getting 13:8 on the call, and 23:8 implied odds since he is always going in"

and

"It would be a better question if he raised to 80 and had 500 chips, and you had AQs"

did you misunderstand?

[/ QUOTE ]

The part where you didn't consider to any significant length what flops to push on and what flops to fold on and how that affects your EV. That's the point of the problem - what price would you need to get so that the initial pre-flop call could be offset by your implied odds by choosing advantageous flops to push on given Villain's range, and what percentage of flops are worth pushing on? This* answer addresses the problem in such a way, whereas what I was saying in my previous post was that addressing the problem in your way assumes the problem is a trivial hand-versus-range exercise in the first place.

Bonus points for the condescending tone, though.

*edit: That link is just the results for this particular problem; I should have supplemented it by linking to This post from the first preflop problem which explains the details of his simulation.

[Grasshoppa]

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For calling.

I estimate that you will flop top pair about 30% of the time.


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This is a very big assumption to only push with any A or Q. There are flops you push without an A or Q. There are also flops with an A or Q where it is incorrect to push. For example, QJT is a bad flop for you (check it).

Furthermore, there is a wide range in p(win) for these flops, with no mention of the distribution or how you got your mean of 60%.

[binions]

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I am not skirting anything.

What part of "you are only getting 13:8 on the call, and 23:8 implied odds since he is always going in"

and

"It would be a better question if he raised to 80 and had 500 chips, and you had AQs"

did you misunderstand?

[/ QUOTE ]

The part where you didn't consider to any significant length what flops to push on and what flops to fold on and how that affects your EV.

[/ QUOTE ]

Here is the original question, Jordan:

"10 20 Blinds. You are in the Big Blind with AQ. You have plenty of chips. A tight player starting with a short stack of 300 makes it 100 to go in early position. All fold. 80 to you. He has 200 left.

You somehow are almost positive about his play. He has two nines or higher or AK. If you move in he will fold only 99 or TT. IF YOU CALL HE WILL ALWAYS MOVE IN 200 ON THE FLOP AND CALL IF YOU MOVE IN. Preflop you should call, fold or move in?"

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Now, it seems to me you don't have to push any flop since when you call his preflop bet, he will always bet all in on the flop, and always call all in if you bet the flop. So, there is no fold equity on the flop - you can't get him to fold.

The only fold equity you have is pushing preflop if he has 99 or TT, and I calculated that above. That $38 ain't enough to be pushing AQ preflop given the neg EV when you are called.

Q: What other flops besides those that contain an A or a Q or a flush, straight, 8 out straight draw, 9 out flush draw or some combination thereof would you bet the flop or call a flop bet with?

A. None.

I mean, this isn't rocket science.

Note: when you flop a 8-9 out draw, you will be getting 2:1 from the pot on a 1.8-2.1:1 shot. Basically, flopping a draw is a wash.

The simple fact is that you hit the flop with AQ 1 out of 3 times on average. And when you do, you get it all in, period. There is no folding when you hit your A or Q.

So, you are getting 23:8 implied odds on on a 2:1 shot v. JJ-99. That's a decent edge - worth $45 the 43% of the time he has JJ-99. ($330*33%=$99) - ($80*67%=$54) = $45

The problem comes with the 57% of the time he has AA-QQ and AK. Now, you have 3 outs not 6, and you don't know which card is an out, so you have to get it in bad (e.g., when you have hit a Q and he has KK).

When you hit the A, you will way behind AA and AK (15 hands), and only ahead of KK and QQ (9 hands). When you hit the Q, you will be way behind AA, KK and QQ (12 hands), and ahead of AK (12 hands). Over 48 hands, you are favored to win $330 21 times and lose $280 27 times.

That's -EV my friend, no matter how you slice it.

To compound matters, you will be folding two-thirds of the time when he has AA-QQ and AK, which is -$54 EV right there.

Clear fold. Period. End of story. Anyone who tells you different is wrong.

[binions]

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For calling.

I estimate that you will flop top pair about 30% of the time.


[/ QUOTE ]

This is a very big assumption to only push with any A or Q. There are flops you push without an A or Q. There are also flops with an A or Q where it is incorrect to push. For example, QJT is a bad flop for you (check it).

Furthermore, there is a wide range in p(win) for these flops, with no mention of the distribution or how you got your mean of 60%.

[/ QUOTE ]

You will get a QJT flop just as often as a JT9 flop, ie not very. Shorthand, it is acceptable to use 2:1 against hitting the flop, since all the times you flop an 8 or 9 out draw will be a wash (e.g. getting 2:1 on the flop when he goes all in on a 1.8-2.1:1 shot with 2 to come)

[valenzuela]

I carefully did the math and u just say "fold because thats my gut feeling" [img]/images/graemlins/mad.gif[/img]. With all respect or whatever..I would kinda enjoy a detailed explanation of why its a fold instead of a call.( or at least some rough math)

[Beavis68]

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For calling.

I estimate that you will flop top pair about 30% of the time.


[/ QUOTE ]

The other flops occur very infrequently. It is just an estimation.



This is a very big assumption to only push with any A or Q. There are flops you push without an A or Q. There are also flops with an A or Q where it is incorrect to push. For example, QJT is a bad flop for you (check it).

Furthermore, there is a wide range in p(win) for these flops, with no mention of the distribution or how you got your mean of 60%.

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[anduril]

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I don't see what david is trying to learn from asking such questions..they seem so impractical

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He's trying to make people think. Something not enough poker players do. Even if you don't think it should at the least be interesting.