Suited Ace-rag hits Top Two Pair - How's My Line?

[hummusx]

1/7.5+1 = .11764705882352941176470588235294, or roughly 11.8%.

7.5:1 means that 7.5 times it WON'T happen for every 1 time it WILL happen. That means that there are 8.5 total 'times' we are considering, and 1 out of those 8.5 'times' you will actually make it.

[gasgod]

[ QUOTE ]
i'm confused about how a 7.5/1 chance converts to 11.8% but my math isnt great

[/ QUOTE ]

To miss your set (or quads), the flop must be 3 off-cards:

48/50 * 47/49 * 46/48 = 88.24%

100 - 88.24 = 11.76%

GG

[GoldenHorde]

Open limping with A-6s is absolutely horrid, even when you do flop your draw you are going to have to play it out of position which is another great way to lose chips.

[durron597]

The problem here is not limp Ace-rag suited. The problem is openlimping it in EP.

I want to be in at the EARLIEST CO-1 before I limp with it, and I want AT LEAST one limper before I limp.

To the poster who put all the math in here, ok so 5% of the time you make your flush. But what about all the times you win a 100-150 chip pot by semibluffing, and the times you stack someone (thus getting 40:1 on your 20 chip bet). But I still want to be in position and have more players in the pot to increase the chances that I get paid off before I limp. I don't openlimp this hand even on the button.

[NYCNative]

I prefer position if only because I can be more sure that my limp won't be raised, but I don't mind playing this from any position because, like a small PP, I am not playing unless I get the flop I want and when I hit it, it's a strong enough hand that I don't mind being out of position as you can see from the hand above.

This isn't just results-oriented thinking. Well, it is in that my results when playing this hand are pretty simple: I either win a good amount or lose a small amount. The risk vs. reward is great and it's a hand that is EASY to get away from when it doesn't hit.

[durron597]

Ok. So say you openlimp UTG+1 with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. Let's assume you get lucky and no one raises. 6 to the flop, t120 in the pot.

Flop K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].

Possible line 1: SB checks, BB bets t80, Hero calls (or do you raise?) MP folds, CO raises to t250, Button folds, BB calls, Hero? Suddenly you just lost a 10% of your stack and you didn't even get to see the turn. And if you raise the BB's bet do you call a push from the CO?
Possible line 2: SB checks, BB checks, Hero checks, MP bets t150, CO calls, Button folds, SB folds, BB folds, Hero? Probably pushes but you have to hope your A outs are clean if you get called.
Possible line 3: SB checks, BB checks, Hero checks, MP checks, CO checks, Button checks. Turn 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. SB bets t80, BB folds, Hero?
Possible line 4: SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets t80, MP folds, CO calls, Button calls, SB folds, BB folds. Turn 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. Hero?

Do you really want to be in any of the above spots? And this is assuming you get lucky and 1) No one raises preflop and 2) You actually flop the flush draw.

[NYCNative]

Sure there are tough decisions to make. You have tough decisions to make with a lot of hands you choose to play out of position, but there are LESS tough decisions with this hand. Sometimes I will have to chase something down but when it looks unprofitable to do so, I fold. Also, I play at the 1,5000 chip SNGs so bleeding even 200 chipes early is hardly a lethal blow especially when that's usually the worst I'll get and the best can be doubling up.

[durron597]

I'm not talking about making tough decisions. I'm talking about leaking 15% of your stack and then folding.

[Phoenix1010]

[ QUOTE ]
Sure there are tough decisions to make. You have tough decisions to make with a lot of hands you choose to play out of position, but there are LESS tough decisions with this hand. Sometimes I will have to chase something down but when it looks unprofitable to do so, I fold. Also, I play at the 1,5000 chip SNGs so bleeding even 200 chipes early is hardly a lethal blow especially when that's usually the worst I'll get and the best can be doubling up.

[/ QUOTE ]

15000 chips? Awesome.

Seriously, you seem to be getting the point, but ignoring it. Playing Axs in EP makes it much more likely that you are going to bleed chips on a flush draw or top pair (at least I'm hoping that you're playing it for top pair value as well, because flush potential is not nearly enough to cover the price of limping). Furthermore, you make it much less likely that you'll be able to pick up the pot on the flop when everyone misses. Thirdly you open yourself up to getting raised preflop and throwing away your limp. There are too many negative factors involved in limping this in EP; whatever marginal value you can have from limping it at all is negated.

-Phoenix

[Matt R.]

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Also, I play at the 1,500 chip SNGs

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this makes it okay to limp in EP with suited aces when blinds are 10/20. 75 BB's is plenty to limp with hands with big drawing potential out of position. Of course, it largely depends on table conditions. If most hands go unraised preflop and there are usually a lot of limpers, I think it would be a mistake to fold here with blinds this low (unless you suck at postflop play).