Loose passive games - call or raise?

[tewall]

It sounds like you're disagreeing with S&M's pot manipulation recommendation. It's an interesting question as to whether calling or raising is better. I wonder if anyone's done sims on it. [img]/forums/images/icons/confused.gif[/img]

Although flush over flush doesn't happen often, it's easy to remember when it does. If remember going crazy with a King high flush that hit. You can guess what happend. [img]/forums/images/icons/frown.gif[/img]

[Pot-A]

Why would I not want to raise from late to get maximum value from my big cards? If I raise and get 5 callers I'm getting 5:1 on my preflop money if I hit a hand.

sucka's comment is on the mark. Raise from late position if you don't have a bunch of limpers who will certainly call you. I'm sorry I didn't make that clear. If you have limpers, just call.

It is true you're getting 5:1 with five callers. However, consider this: How often to you hit the flop? Lets say you had AQo, and the flop was something like Ts 9s 2c. Heads up this might be a betting or calling situation, since one opponent is likely to have whiffed as well, but against five people your odds of winning this pot are small. You're only loosing half as much if you just chuck it on the flop, even though you have some outs.

This is the key: The point of the raise pre-flop for a hand like AQo isn't to get more money from the people who call, it is to increase the chance you will win the pot by reducing the number of callers. You need to have a really strong hand like AA to start thinking about getting good odds on your pre-flop money.

I find I make no money with my big hands when I raise and get one caller, on the flop I bet and they fold or call one bet then fold the turn. but if they stay in they'll just call so its still not a big pot but I lose a fair number of those. so I lose multiple bets when I raise pre-flop from early and lose, but only win a few, maybe 2-3 bets when I win.

If you raise and you only get one caller, it's not a loose game after all. Start raising with a wider range of hands.

I'd love to see the rules for my calculator telling when to bet/call/raise/etc. please tell me what to read. I've read HEPFAP and its not that cut and dry.

No? Read it again, especially the section on pot odds. If your opponents are just going to call to the end with draws you want to bet your made hands. Whether you call or even bet with a draw is dictated by the size of the pot. If you get raised you have to start thinking about what the raiser could have. If people are raising a lot with marginal hands, it's not a passive game.

Good point on the river card. I had to really think it through but it makes sense. They won't call if they missed a draw, but will call with hands even if marginal.

If they call with marginal hands you're going to have to make some value bets. You'll get raised every once in awhile, but it'll still end up being more profitable if you consider your opponents carefully.

One thing I need to learn to do is lay down a good hand when I get check-raised on the turn-river. I'm beat 90% of the time that happens. the other 10% I just have a better hand, its never a bluff on their part.

Be very carefull adopting this strategy. In general, these type of games generate very large pots relative to the size of the bet, so it is still correct to call if you have outs or they might be bluffing.

So take into account how strong your hand is and how many other players are still in before you decide to fold. Most hands that were worth a bet are worth a call in this situation. Also, if you start folding every time they raise, even the weakest players will start to become tricky.

[AmericanAirlines]

Hi MajorKong,
The AA analogy rings home. Elsewhere I asked, "Since AA wins 3 out of 7 against 10 players vrs. 80% of the time against 1, why would I ever want to raise people out?"

This morning while brushing my teeth (literally!) it came to me. I might be better off against 5 callers for a double bet than 10 callers limping in. My probability of winning goes up... and I got the same amount of money in the pot as 10 callers... but only have 5 drawers to deal with.

I suspect there's an optimal number of opponents in said situations. Guess I should get a monte carlo simulator and a spread sheet out like I used to do with stud. (Lost my HE simulator, the old Workware PokerLanguage jobby, in a disk crash.)

By the way, I have no question in my mind that AJs is better than AJo, to be sure. What I thought my objectives for each had are, is where the confusion came from.

Sounds like AJs could be played either way, so the question becomes, "What is the most profitable way?"

I suspect that there's some sort of yield curve at work, just like the AA example. Again, leading me to the idea of "Most profitable number of callers". (Taking the AA example a little further, Limp-Reraise makes a lot of sense. After all, if I could make it 3 bets plus trapped money to one caller, I'd might get the same EV as the 10 caller scenario... but with that juicy 80% winning probability... can you say, "Variance Reduction". :-) )

However, no one has published that data, far as I know.

Seems that idea, along with the idea of having a table of "hand vrs. hand" odds falls on deaf ears in this forum, yet both sets of data seem important to know to me.

Thanks for taking the effort in the responses.

Sincerely,
AA

[Flashy]

I play a lot of $4/8 in LA. I have observed what seems like a loose passsive game will all of a sudden change to agressive after the first raise with mulitple raises comming from previous limpers. There ends up being 5-6 players in a 3-4 bet pot preflop. Some LA players just love the action and the excitement of a big pot and look to get capped pots going. Particularlly with any suited connectors.

Once the pot is capped, you can count on a 3 player showdown on the river. I can't recall any 3-4 bet preflop pots taken down without a showdown.

Conversely, I find that I can take a pot with a semi or outright bluff if it is unraised preflop. This occurs with a flop that is either very strong or very weak. Once a lot of folds occur, the herd instincts seem to kick in and everyone folds out to the bettor. I know people call these games nofoldem, but I seem able to steal a few pots on the during a session.

I know limping with a good hand preflop in late position is a mistake. But I wonder if you pickup some equity by the ability to now take down a pot. I am not talking about limping with a premium hand, but one like a pair of 10s in late position. For it to hold up with 5-6 people calling to the river, 9 times out of ten you will need to spike a ten. So I don't think you want to risk having to 3-4 bet it to see the flop. In an unraise pot where players will fold, it becomes a great hand to bet depending on the flop.

Opinions, even flames welcomed.

[DeliciousDi]

Playing online (Paradise and Party) 3/6 & 5/10, it's back to the basics for me (Bet when you got them, fold when you don't and stay out of the traps) because there are now too many people there playing good poker. Playing fairly liberal starting hands for positions, I make some money as long as I stay out of raising wars and show some respect for kickers - "big pair with big kicker is the meat and potatoes of Hold'em" - "paying respect is cheaper than paying money" - and for me, JTs is ok MP if it improves to at least pair of Jacks with no overcard on the Flop and I can get there with a single bet. If I get those 2 suited cards to go with my JTs I'm willing to limp on in (more so if there is a Jack on the board, then will raise) but that 3% doesn't drive me <rambling> and it is, after all, dependent on the game opponents are playing. After getting burned a few times I've identifed some opponents as just hanging out in 5/10 waiting for a certain high-stakes game to let them in and when they get into the 5/10 game, I get out.
Back in the 'good ole days' I made a living wage counting cards (Hi/Low) in the Las Vegas Blackjack games and I was there when the wizards of counting got caught up in the .003% issues. It seems to me that something similar is happening in poker. Precision poker play cost me $900 out of $2100 winnings and now KISS is once again my motto. But what do I know? I'm just a beginner at poker.