$30+3 - Very difficult bubble hand

[viennagreen]

even if 50% of the hands he calls you with are pairs, and you end up being in a coinflip situation--- consider what percentage of the time he folds?

[Phil Van Sexton]

I call.

[1C5]

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I call.

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I agree with this actually. Call, and if A or K falls on the flop, all in, if not, bail out if he bets and still have a lead over the 4th place player in chips.

[Phil Van Sexton]

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I call.

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I agree with this actually. Call, and if A or K falls on the flop, all in, if not, bail out if he bets and still have a lead over the 4th place player in chips.

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In addition, I want the BB come along too. If the raiser ends up taking me out, I want the BB to go down with me, so I get 3rd.

[1C5]

Exactly, even better if that happens.

[shejk]

I can see both calling and pushing here. That said, I'd usually push.

As someone said earlier, it's read dependent. Besides that, I guess it'd depend on playing style. Here, I'll probably have pushed a few times already, so I should be liable to get calls from all sorts of aces.

The more I think about it though, the more I'm leaning towards calling. From first read to last sentence I've gone from say 95% push to 55%.

[ilya]

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I call.

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I agree with this actually. Call, and if A or K falls on the flop, all in, if not, bail out if he bets and still have a lead over the 4th place player in chips.

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In addition, I want the BB come along too. If the raiser ends up taking me out, I want the BB to go down with me, so I get 3rd.

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This is a $33, I don't think you're increasing the chances of BB coming along all that much by just calling.

If he does come along after you call, you've just put 500 into a pot that he might win, and that you will give up most of the time (if UTG checks to you, semi-bluffing in position will have much less value since you'll still have to beat BB). If you fold postflop and BB does win the pot, you will be the new shortstack. If you fold postflop and UTG wins the pot, you will go into the money with just 1/8th of the chips in play. 3x fewer than you would have if you'd pushed and beaten UTG!

Also, UTG is much more likely to call you preflop with KQ/KJ than he is to call you on an Ace-high flop. He's also more likely to call you preflop with AQ-AT than he is to call you on a King-high flop. So you're missing out on a lot of chips when you just call instead of pushing and letting him call you with dominated hands preflop.

[Scuba Chuck]

Degen here has all the answers. In fact, his posts with me are extremely pompous. What makes this post even more so is that he has the audacity to sit at a table with me, and play against me without me knowing (which is fine by the way). Then uses the same (or similar) bubble tactics as I intend to. Knowing that I will fold to pressure. Then, when I am faced with a difficult decision, where I have the opportunity I am dealt a crummy hand like say 62, and he has the balls to tell me I'm too tight.

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P.S. This is the easiest push in the history of SNG's.


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Wow, unbelievably arrogant.

Give me your Party Poker handle. I go look through my HHs, and we can analyze this bubble play over the forum if you'd like.

[Scuba Chuck]

Well, I don't know what the right play is, as I pushed and lost on this hand. What this hand is making me think about is do I want to put $$$ on the line for a draw when I don't have to. This play will do one of two things. It will likely give me first place, or put me out. If I had a crummy hand, and folded, IMO, it would have very little affect on my ability to still challenge first.

[Degen]

if you think it will A: give you the win or B: put you out...and if you think these two options are equally likely...it should be an easy call.

Degen