77 15-30 online - Page 3

mike l. · #21 08-25-2005, 05:48 PM

"What would you have done if he raises on the turn?"

fold. if he was going to make a raise with AK he wouldve done it on the flop with that board.

astroglide · #22 08-25-2005, 05:48 PM

[ QUOTE ]
since the pot was like 8 or 9 bbs i bet

[/ QUOTE ]

the size of the pot only matters in relation to what percentage of the time you believe you will get called. saying you bet "since the pot was..." doesn't demonstrate that a rough percentage was considered against the size of the pot (which would require putting him on an actual hand range). most people's calling percentages probably scale linearly with pot size for a while, and then it gets worse for you when they get big.

[ QUOTE ]
for instance Q high beats me, but is usually not calling

[/ QUOTE ]

come on dude, the best queen high hand he can have is Q7.

[ QUOTE ]
K high beats me but will sometimes fold here. so a bet is the correct play.

[/ QUOTE ]

KQ makes sense. would he raise KT/KTs? the next best king high hand is the venerable K7.

saying something like, "he would fold 66-22 here and maybe he'd force me out with a bet if i checked it to him" at least shows more of a thought process behind it.

baronzeus · #23 08-25-2005, 05:51 PM

I dont think 66-22 calls a turn bet and usually doesnt raise preflop. but im glad you opened my eyes to the FE that you think you haev.

astroglide · #24 08-25-2005, 05:53 PM

is FE short for folding equity?

mike l. · #25 08-25-2005, 05:56 PM

"at least shows more of a thought process behind it."

okay ill be honest. what i was thinking was "me have no hand, me bluff!"

baronzeus · #26 08-25-2005, 05:57 PM

[ QUOTE ]
is FE short for folding equity?

[/ QUOTE ]

yep

astroglide · #27 08-25-2005, 06:06 PM

there are a lot of hands that wouldn't usually play like this, but there seems to be a lot of what-iffing in the thread anyway to push it toward a call when the only standard knockout coup i see is KQ. even then, a lot of people overlimp with KQo. most people aren't going to raise you with KTs from MP1.

just to chat some sane calling/winning hands that played this way are AA/KK/QQ (minmaxing), JJ, AK, AQ, AT. most people would still raise the big pairs, but the others are really likely to play that way and there are a lot more of them than there are KQ.

baronzeus · #28 08-25-2005, 06:20 PM

OK, so what do you do in this hand? You don't think it's KQo/KTs often enough here? It's rarely 66-22 since he raised preflop. And it only needs to be KQo/KTs about 1 in 9. Just curious.

Just purely bayesian:

16 comboes of KQ
4 comboes of KTs

20 comboes that call turn and fold river

AA-QQ, TT
24 comboes, let's discount to like 16 outs since most play this faster
AK-AQ, AT

I also think AK folds the turn here most of the time but it shouldnt matter.
48 comboes

64 comboes that beat you and likely call, 20 that call and likely fold the river, so it seems that you get good fold equity here.

Do you agree?

autobet · #29 08-25-2005, 06:30 PM

Too many players for this flop. I'm done with the hand unless it's checked around and a card below 7 comes off on the turn.

I like the river bet, because it is much better than checking.

astroglide · #30 08-25-2005, 06:30 PM

it's not an open-and-shut case against king high either, calling there isn't a play that's simply reserved for experts or idiots anymore. if people were as willing to fold king high as they used to be i'd be more inclined to bet, it's something i've really been noticing lately. if i checked it i'd almost surely get to see his hand because high cards aren't usually betting there. a bet after i checked it would be pretty weird, but not enough to lose sleep.

i'd kind of have to be there to say what i'd do for sure, but i certainly don't hate checking.