3.5 bets cold to AKo

[DavidC]

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Fold


Fishlips

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You going to publish that?

[img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

[DavidC]

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David, instead of 4 random, can you try 2 random from the bad players and at least one good PP J's or better from the passive botton capper?


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Adam's already done a good job of this.

My numbers are just about default multiway situations with AK vs JTo, not about this hand.

[Aaron W.]

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Most of these players have small sample sizes (less than 30) except for the lag.

A reasonable guy who hasn't raised much raises UTG, two cold calls by bad players. A super-lag three-bets, and an LPP (40/2/0.5: 30 hands) caps it on the button. I'm in the SB.

Do I call or fold?

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Am I the only one who thinks this is a no-brainer call?

30 hands does not make a read where I would take an easy decision and go the opposite direction. Against a complete unknown, you call because even if you don't have the best hand, you could well be dominating a couple of them (AQ-KQ), and drawing to very live outs against some of them (QQ-JJ). Yeah, you'll bump into AA-KK sometimes. But there's no way I'm dropping this hand in a 5-way pot preflop against an unknown capper. So why would I do it against a 30-hand statistic?

[kiemo]

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Fold



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With advice this perfect nothing else need be said.

/agree

[Aaron W.]

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Most of these players have small sample sizes (less than 30) except for the lag.

A reasonable guy who hasn't raised much raises UTG, two cold calls by bad players. A super-lag three-bets, and an LPP (40/2/0.5: 30 hands) caps it on the button. I'm in the SB.

Do I call or fold?

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Am I the only one who thinks this is a no-brainer call?

30 hands does not make a read where I would take an easy decision and go the opposite direction. Against a complete unknown, you call because even if you don't have the best hand, you could well be dominating a couple of them (AQ-KQ), and drawing to very live outs against some of them (QQ-JJ). Yeah, you'll bump into AA-KK sometimes. But there's no way I'm dropping this hand in a 5-way pot preflop against an unknown capper. So why would I do it against a 30-hand statistic?

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I just realized the wording is muddled, so I'm cleaning it up after the "Edit" deadline. I still stand by calling and seeing a flop.

30 hands does not make a read where I would take an easy decision and go the opposite direction. Against a complete unknown, you call this because you could have the best hand and be dominating them (AQ-KQ), and if you're not, you're often drawing to very live outs (QQ-JJ). Yeah, you'll bump into AA-KK sometimes. But there's no way I'm dropping this hand in a 5-way pot preflop against an unknown capper. So why would I do it against a 30-hand statistic?

[Shillx]

Fold man. Not even close. [img]/images/graemlins/ooo.gif[/img]

[Aaron W.]

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This is kinda best case, and you still don't have your share of the pot.

If I take TT or even JJ away from the LP-P it gets even worse for you. The LP-P basically has enormous equity in this hand.

Really goes to show the advantage of having a high PP rather than "overs" in a raise pot!

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

2,401,196 games 14.171 secs 169,444 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 44.1108 % [ 00.44 00.01 ] { AA-TT }
Hand 2: 22.5400 % [ 00.20 00.02 ] { AKo }
Hand 3: 15.4699 % [ 00.14 00.01 ] { AA-TT, AKs-ATs, KQs-KTs, QJs-QTs, JTs, AKo-ATo, KQo-KTo, QJo-QTo, JTo }
Hand 4: 17.8793 % [ 00.16 00.02 ] { AA-TT, AKs-ATs, KQs-KTs, AKo-AJo, KQo-KJo }

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How is this best case when you assume that capper *MUST* have a pocket pair and not AK? Also, you've given super-LAG (which I would guess is hand #3) a fairly narrow range of hands.

Edit: I don't even like this as an equity calculation. If you hit an ace, you're going to be good very often and you'll likely get paid off by a big pocket pair or an ace you dominate. If you catch a king, you're going to be good quite often still (as only AA/KK are actual threats). How often will you hit one a pair?

6 live outs: 1 - (44/50 * 43/49 * 42/48) = 32%
5 live outs: 1 - (44/49 * 43/48 * 42/47) = 28%
4 live outs: 1 - (44/48 * 43/47 * 42/46) = 23%
3 live outs: 1 - (44/47 * 43/46 * 42/45) = 18%

So you're still going to hit your cards somewhat often and it's going to be a big pot. I'm not sold at all that this is an easy fold.

Don't forget, you have a 30 hand statistic, which is essentially nothing.

[Xhad]

Against an unknown who raises UTG you would tend to give him credit for a hand rather than saying "well he might be a maniac" and fold KJo, right? So when a complete stranger cold-caps on the button, what range of hands are you putting him on? Including AK in that range doesn't help because I'd rather not draw for half the pot, and including any other non-pairs is unrealistic IMO.

[Aaron W.]

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Against an unknown who raises UTG you would tend to give him credit for a hand rather than saying "well he might be a maniac" and fold KJo, right? So when a complete stranger cold-caps on the button, what range of hands are you putting him on? Including AK in that range doesn't help because I'd rather not draw for half the pot, and including any other non-pairs is unrealistic IMO.

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It's not about keeping AK out of the hand range because it's not what we *WANT* to be up against, it's what we reasonably *ARE* up against. Drawing to half of a 5-way capped pot is not insignificant -- half of it is a 5 BB pot, and it's still only preflop.

Generic cold-capper gets AA-JJ, AK, AQs in my book.

[Xhad]

Using equity calculations is a little misleading considering on the flop you will likely have just overcards, and you won't know whether they're good or not, especially if a broadway hits the board (which might give someone a set or pair a worse ace). At least with JTs I may flop a draw to the nuts (though I'm not playing JTs here either...unless I know capper is a LAG, or himself adjusting to the LAG-ness of the reraiser, I'm not even playing JJ)

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Hm... I guess you're right. I think the larger the pot and the more numerous the opponents the more significant the difference becomes between 3.5 and 4. In the second scenario it was a 15%, which I think is rather significant.

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While it may be true that making the pot multiway increases the odds from the SB, it is also true that every raise reduces the significance of existing blind money. The difference between 0 and .5 is more than the difference between 2 and 1.5, which is more than the difference between 4 and 3.5.