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#21
09-27-2005, 03:19 PM
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Re: 15/30 Raise the overcards here?
[ QUOTE ]
Based on this, I'd call then. I need to know I am still ahead of CO a reaonably high % of the time to raise. We can't protect our hand if we aren't ahead. I think W.D.'s analysis of why calling is better is spot on. Edit: Also, for anyone just saying that we need to get rid of the other players, realize that if we are behind CO that getting rid of the other players will benefit CO way more than Hero equity-wise. This is another reason why how often we are ahead of CO is so important. [/ QUOTE ] Jake makes a very important point here: Raising is only a better option if there's a significant chance that we have the best hand at this moment. Raising when we are in fact drawing is almost certainly lower EV than calling for all the reasons previously detailed. For those considering hand protection issues, one thing to think about here is that the only hands we could really "protect" against are hands with like 2-3 outs (hands like AJ). The thing is, those hands are probably calling slightly incorrectly anyway, and probably neutral at best. Raising might encourage such hands to actually make folds that are BAD for us. It is true that we would like to encourage two-live-card type hands like JT to fold, but for this to be a useful thing to do, we actually need to be ahead here a significant portion of the time; if we are still drawing, we actually encourage their calls because it increases our odds and since we are not sharing outs there is little chance that there presence in the hand will hurt our chances of winning if we hit. I do think that raising now is better than, for example, waiting to raise the turn if we think that we are ahead here a significant amount of the time. Barring that, though, calling is better. 
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#22
09-27-2005, 03:25 PM
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Re: 15/30 Raise the overcards here?
[ QUOTE ]
Edit: Also, for anyone just saying that we need to get rid of the other players, realize that if we are behind CO that getting rid of the other players will benefit CO way more than Hero equity-wise. This is another reason why how often we are ahead of CO is so important. [/ QUOTE ] Jake, if we increase our equity, why does it matter that we increase another opponent's equity as well? We're still bettering our chances of winning the pot. -McGee
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#23
09-27-2005, 03:35 PM
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Re: 15/30 Raise the overcards here?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Edit: Also, for anyone just saying that we need to get rid of the other players, realize that if we are behind CO that getting rid of the other players will benefit CO way more than Hero equity-wise. This is another reason why how often we are ahead of CO is so important. [/ QUOTE ] Jake, if we increase our equity, why does it matter that we increase another opponent's equity as well? We're still bettering our chances of winning the pot. -McGee [/ QUOTE ] If folding others helps our opponent much more, it is possible that we lose in expectation though we gain in immediate equity. The point is that if others fold who would pad the pot for our draw, what we gain from the pot that is already built (namely, our immediate share in the money in the pot), might actually be more than outweighed by what we lose from future bets from opposing players. This may not be the case here... I'm not sure. The fact that this pot is pretty big already tends to decrease the likelihood that that is what is going on. But it is a theoretical possibility. An example might be a situation where you raise with a flush draw against a player who bets out with top pair. By raising, you get three players to fold behind you clean up some very small out... like you get one person to fold the same backdoor straight draw as you. This might increase your equity by like .5% or something, but you would have been making far more than that by letting in the players behind you and allowing more money to go in. If you would have won, say 35% of all the calls behind you had you just called, it is clear that raising actually increases your immediate equity (namely your likelihood of winning what's already in thepot) but actually might decrease your expectation.
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#24
09-27-2005, 03:40 PM
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Re: 15/30 Raise the overcards here?
Fair enough. I tend to think the SSHE "do-what-you-can-to-win-large-pots" rule trumps this, but I see what you're saying.
Regardless, I still like a raise to hopefully get it heads up. When it's just me and him, there are more ways to win than just hitting an ace or a king (and I might even be ahead already). -McGee
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#25
09-27-2005, 03:45 PM
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Re: 15/30 Raise the overcards here?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Edit: Also, for anyone just saying that we need to get rid of the other players, realize that if we are behind CO that getting rid of the other players will benefit CO way more than Hero equity-wise. This is another reason why how often we are ahead of CO is so important. [/ QUOTE ] Jake, if we increase our equity, why does it matter that we increase another opponent's equity as well? We're still bettering our chances of winning the pot. -McGee [/ QUOTE ] Thank god someone was smart enough to point this out. Nice post. Also, no one should be raising their overs very often, as all you have is a weak draw, but there are always exceptions. One exception is when you may have the best hand. On this board our AK could easily be the best hand if the villain is betting a flush draw which is entirely possible. Another exception is when the pot is very big like this one and a flop raise may increase your chance of winning the pot by a few percentage points, then you should also raise. Since the hero has the odds to call the flop, I believe he must invest that extra flop bet and raise instead in this big pot. The hero only has to have the best hand here a small fraction of the time to make this flop raise correct. And if the hero doesnt have the best hand, he still may be able to take a free card on the turn, and this alone will increase the hero's chance of winning this pot enough to make the flop raise correct. Yes i know the hero could get 3 bet if he raises the flop, but in big pots you simply must take more risks.
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#26
09-27-2005, 03:49 PM
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Re: 15/30 Raise the overcards here?
[ QUOTE ]
Poster: Aces McGee Subject: Re: 15/30 Raise the overcards here? Fair enough. I tend to think the SSHE "do-what-you-can-to-win-large-pots" rule trumps this, but I see what you're saying. [/ QUOTE ] Eh, this bit isn't very clear. What I meant was more what W. Deranged wrote: "The fact that this pot is pretty big already tends to decrease the likelihood that that is what is going on." -McGee
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#27
09-27-2005, 03:52 PM
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Re: 15/30 Raise the overcards here?
[ QUOTE ]
Fair enough. I tend to think the SSHE "do-what-you-can-to-win-large-pots" rule trumps this, but I see what you're saying. Regardless, I still like a raise to hopefully get it heads up. When it's just me and him, there are more ways to win than just hitting an ace or a king (and I might even be ahead already). -McGee [/ QUOTE ] Everything you said after the word "regardless" is exactly why the hero must raise this flop! Good post
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#28
09-27-2005, 03:54 PM
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Re: 15/30 Raise the overcards here?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Edit: Also, for anyone just saying that we need to get rid of the other players, realize that if we are behind CO that getting rid of the other players will benefit CO way more than Hero equity-wise. This is another reason why how often we are ahead of CO is so important. [/ QUOTE ] Jake, if we increase our equity, why does it matter that we increase another opponent's equity as well? We're still bettering our chances of winning the pot. -McGee [/ QUOTE ] Thank god someone was smart enough to point this out. Nice post. Also, no one should be raising their overs very often, as all you have is a weak draw, but there are always exceptions. One exception is when you may have the best hand. On this board our AK could easily be the best hand if the villain is betting a flush draw which is entirely possible. Another exception is when the pot is very big like this one and a flop raise may increase your chance of winning the pot by a few percentage points, then you should also raise. Since the hero has the odds to call the flop, I believe he must invest that extra flop bet and raise instead in this big pot. The hero only has to have the best hand here a small fraction of the time to make this flop raise correct. And if the hero doesnt have the best hand, he still may be able to take a free card on the turn, and this alone will increase the hero's chance of winning this pot enough to make the flop raise correct. Yes i know the hero could get 3 bet if he raises the flop, but in big pots you simply must take more risks. [/ QUOTE ] I'm sorry but this post sucks. Which is it? Does hero have the best hand often here, or is he raising for a free card? HE'S NOT DOING BOTH! If we're raising to protect, we damn well better be betting the turn. If we're raising on a draw, then that's just stupid for all the reasons I've already mentioned. This post misses the entire subtlety of the hand. The very reason this hand is interesting is because it is not easy to tell whether our hero is ahead a significant portion of the time, and hence it is tough to decide whether to play this hand as a drawing hand or as a made hand we need to protect. Your post does nothing to address this central question, and rather just rehashes a bunch of mutually contradictory reasons why raising might be correct and couches them in a cliched "we need to take risks in a big pot" language. (This is a true idea, but we should really look at exactly how it applies in this situation). I'm willing to concede that raising might be correct for protection purposes. Hence, if you believe we are ahead often here, I'll accept raising is right. But raising when we are on a draw is pretty certainly NOT correct in my opinion. Hence, any one advocating raising the flop and checking behind on the turn is advocating a very bad line.
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#29
09-27-2005, 04:16 PM
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Re: 15/30 Raise the overcards here?
Hey W...
I'm enjoying the discussion of this hand, and I want to ask you a question regarding this specific post and this specific hand, notwithstanding what we've posted elsewhere in the thread. The free-card play, in its traditional form, is a flop raise when you're likely behind in the hope of seeing both the turn and river for one fewer small bet than if you called both streets; that is, it involves raising the flop and checking the turn through. What about this specific hand makes the free card play a bad idea? I have some thoughts as to what it might be, but I'd like to hear your reasoning. -McGee
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#30
09-27-2005, 05:50 PM
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Re: 15/30 Raise the overcards here?
Hi aces,
I meant mostly that if we are behind CO and are able to fold out the other two players, our equity will increase by about 5% while CO's equity will increase by about 25%. Disregarding other factors (like free card), 5% of this pot is not worth 1 extra sb, and certainly not worth more than that if we get 3-bet or donked. W.D.'s point about pot-padding also applies, but I meant mostly that CO is taking too much of the equity that the players who fold are giving up. Against an unknown party player, I think this spot calls for a raise as we could easily still be holding the best hand. The OP seems to think there is'nt much chance of this though, which is why I would rather call. BTW, for anybody reading this thread, Nate's thread is an absolute must read.
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