two pair confusion

[ep510]

...Hero 3-bets</font>, MP2 calls $7 (All-In), CO calls.

Final Pot: 23.70 BB

So, who do you guys think won the hand? And who came in second/third?

[Nick Royale]

It's hard to put MP2 on a hand since he's shortstacked. But here's my guess (using some psychology analyzing your previous questions [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]):

1st: CO, QQ
2nd: Hero, AQ
3rd: MP2, KJo

And here's on using no psychology at all:
1st: Hero, AQ
2nd: CO, KQ
3rd: MP2, KJo

[molawn2mo]

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Counting outs... maybe 1.2 for the A. 1.5 for the bd flush. maybe .3 for the bd str8. Total 3 outs. Someone chime in my counting, here.

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Mo, you say I had about 3 outs here. That’s a conservative estimate, at least according to SSHE (at least from what I remember since I don’t have it with me right now): 1.5 outs for the A, 1.5 outs for the backdoor flush, and 0.5 outs for the backdoor straight. That gives us 3.5 outs total, or 12.4:1 odds (even with your conservative 3 outs, that’s giving us 14.7:1).


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Flop, to me, is a clear fold. You are behind to any K. You are potentially reverse dominated should your A appear. You are potentially dominated if your A appears.

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The pot is offering us 16:1, and while there’s the possibility of a raise behind us, I don’t like folding because the pot is so big. In a big pot, you can't always worry about hands that beat you.

As Ed Miller said:
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You know those guys that play "fearless" poker and seem to win? When the pot is big, it is time to play fearless. Throw in that extra bet or raise. If you crash and burn, so be it. That is winning poker, though. If you don't have the stomach for it, take up tiddle-e-winks.

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I'm not saying that raising was the clear correct thing to do, but I think folding is out of the question.

-Eric

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Quoting a platitude from Ed Miller is unproductive as is stating that the pot is so big that you won't fold. You would fold wouldn't you had Villain shown you AhQh or KK?

One of the ways that I use to try and conjure up whether to proceed after the flop (in your case) is I figure out what would be the best card for me to see on the turn and how would I proceed therefrom if that card came up. In your example the A must be i your top 1,2 or 3 choices and the only choice that gives you a "made" hand. Anyway... you get the great turn card yet you are still not quite clear on how to proceed (it seems) because I'm thinking that if you thought that you had the best hand after the turn you most assuredly should have bet it to protect. I assume that you were not certain of the "goodness" of your hand because you checked it and allowed the dreaded free card.

When I get my card and am still not clear and confident in my chosen course of action then that is a sign that I use that tells me that I am reaching/chasing too far.

The above is offered FWIW and not as a categorical statement of truth as it relates to your hand described above though, if the shoe fits....

[ep510]

I checked in an attempt to check-raise button (whose AF is over 3), which didn't work out too well. I said this in another post here.

[ep510]

The outcome of the hand actually blew my mind. MP2 came out on top with 87 hearts for the flush on the river. CO ALSO had me beat with AK spades [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img] ?!

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Even though his AF is low he won't check through on the turn with AK.

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Just another reason why we can't predict these donks...

Oh, and on a later hand, CO hit a small flush against my QQ, and again, didn't bet/raise. Seems like he's afraid of the nuts every time.

-Eric

[trumpman84]

I was thinking CO AK too. What does a 6% pre flop raiser have that you beat on this board thgats worthy of calling 2 cold on the flop and 2 cold on the river? Jacks? QQ, KK, AA and AK are all ahead...and can't see him having any less the way the hand played out. Middle position is just a fish and impossible to put on a hand, but I thought CO had you the entire time. I say MP is a fish and he was still chasing more outs than you [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

[Nick Royale]

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I say MP is a fish and he was still chasing more outs than you

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MP had odds to call both flop and turn, easy. His preflop play stinks though.

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What does a 6% pre flop raiser have that you beat on this board thgats worthy of calling 2 cold on the flop and 2 cold on the river? Jacks?

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Since he didn't bet the turn KQ would be most likely.

[ihardlyknowher]

Bet the turn. You hit your hand, no one has represented a better hand, and the pot is big - try to take it down.

The river 3-bet is probably a little excessive.

[Nick Royale]

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no one has represented a better hand

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The flop got 3-betted.

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The river 3-bet is probably a little excessive.

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Not imo.

[ep510]

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Bet the turn...the pot is big - try to take it down.

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A bet into this large a pot is nearly impossible to take down with all that action on the flop. It is much more effective to narrow the field by check-raising this turn.