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#1
11-24-2005, 06:22 PM
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Re: Family pot, PPs
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Good question. I think I might raise 22 if I have two opponents. At 3, I am losing much of my folding equity/non set equity. But, once we reach 5 opponents or more, I am raising again. I am unsure about this stuff though. [/ QUOTE ] This is a pretty significant mistake, IMO...for the same reasons that it is good to raise 7 from the BB in a family pot... these players will chase excessively and you will be VERY hard pressed to play your hand correctly post-flop. Example: Button limps, SB completes. You raise 33 in BB. (both opponents are your average loose-bad). Flop: Q82. You bet, 2 callers. Turn is a 7. do you bet again? check-call? if you bet, and get called again you don't know if they have 9T or A2 or Q3. if you check and one of them bets, he colud have A2 and you folded the best hand. It's just way too hard to play these baby pairs OOP, and the task of realizing your equity becomes even more difficult in a raised pot. If the pot remains unraised you can bet/raise when you think your hand is best and usually take down the pot without having to see a river. Surf [/ QUOTE ] In the situation you described, I think it is an easy turn check/fold. I do think we might be taking it down on the flop decently often though. I dunno, I just started doing this. I used to check, but after hearing from a bunch of people that they raise on the button more (I think I remember them saying specifically this situation too), I decided to start trying it. I think we are continuing to the river with about the same frequency with our baby pairs if we raise or not preflop, the only difference is that if we do raise, we have more fold equity on the flop, and the pots we win on the flop are bigger. I think this might make up for the extra SB we are paying preflop, but I am not sure. 
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#2
11-24-2005, 12:10 PM
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Re: Family pot, PPs
i once made a thread that said something along the lines of if there are 7 limpers in front of you then its correct to raise 22 from the BB. i still think thats correct but its really tough to guage the equity value of such hands postflop.
preflop equity is easy. in this hand i like raising because our preflop equity is around 21%. at 21% that means that by investing another small bet our equity gain is .26SB or .13BB! thats huge on a 1SB investment, a 26% rate of return. i dont think we can make that up postflop by checking. im not certain whether checking preflop increases our postflop equity or not. in the past ive argued that raising preflop increases our equity but its truly close and depends on the game. i think the more aggressive the game is the more you want to raise preflop. if players are going to raise and reraise protecting their pairs then you will get paid off alot when you flop a set. if players are just calling bets then it doesnt do you much good. because its hard to determine whether your hand has more value postflop whether you raise or check, i think in this situation raising is clear. an immediately 26% ROI is gigantic in this spot, and its very hard to make that up postflop. the real question for me is how low would i go with pairs in this spot. i think i would raise 66 but lower than that and i check. its tough.
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#3
11-24-2005, 12:52 PM
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Re: Family pot, PPs
[ QUOTE ]
i once made a thread that said something along the lines of if there are 7 limpers in front of you then its correct to raise 22 from the BB. i still think thats correct but its really tough to guage the equity value of such hands postflop. preflop equity is easy. in this hand i like raising because our preflop equity is around 21%. at 21% that means that by investing another small bet our equity gain is .26SB or .13BB! thats huge on a 1SB investment, a 26% rate of return. i dont think we can make that up postflop by checking. im not certain whether checking preflop increases our postflop equity or not. in the past ive argued that raising preflop increases our equity but its truly close and depends on the game. i think the more aggressive the game is the more you want to raise preflop. if players are going to raise and reraise protecting their pairs then you will get paid off alot when you flop a set. if players are just calling bets then it doesnt do you much good. because its hard to determine whether your hand has more value postflop whether you raise or check, i think in this situation raising is clear. an immediately 26% ROI is gigantic in this spot, and its very hard to make that up postflop. the real question for me is how low would i go with pairs in this spot. i think i would raise 66 but lower than that and i check. its tough. [/ QUOTE ] I like your analysis, but your mention of the 26% ROI is off. Although we may have equity by raising preflop, we only realize that entire equity if we reach the river. Since fairly often we are not, we do not get all of that equity. See my above post about how much of the equity we actually have.
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#5
11-24-2005, 06:34 PM
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Re: Family pot, PPs
Just thought I'd add some stuff from Abdul Jalib.
[ QUOTE ] Similarly, it is an S&M myth that you should raise with baby pairs like 33 after six (or fewer) limpers, even if you know the blinds will call. Although you will flop a set more then 1 in 9 times, you will win the pot less than 1 in 9 times. Since you will win the pot less than your fair share, you should not raise. A possible exception is when the raise has a decent chance of buying you a free card on the flop, as this now improves your chance of winning to better than 1 in 9, but it is normally rare that all 8 opponents would check to the raiser. [/ QUOTE ] Note that Abdul is talking about button raises with a pocket pair here, and saying not to do it. I reckon the argument against raising is all the stronger at a shorthanded table and in the big blind. I don't make these raises myself (I read that Abdul stuff five years ago and took it to heart) but I am still not sure... Guy.
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