QQ...you be the judge.

[Homer315]

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Then why was he 3-betting the turn? With AK [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] as a semi-bluff? Seems to me that he would want MP to call, and not face him with 2 BB cold. I think if you paused at the river and looked at BB's line for the whole hand, what possible hand would he have played that way? I guess the only one might be pocket tens, and the jack scared him. That's quite a specific read to put on him though...

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Do you think you have the best hand, or are you trying to get a better hand to fold?

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Both. I think I have MP beat (if he just calls) and I'm hoping to fold a better hand from BB.

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You're not going to get many players to fold an AA or KK overpair too often.

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It doesn't have to work too often to have value.

EDIT: Add QQ to the list too.

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It still needs to work somewhere if it has any value. Do you really think he's going to 3-bet the turn and fold to a raise?

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I didn't. Until he checked the river. Then I thought there was a chance.

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After the turn 3bet, I put him on AA, KK, QQ, JJ, TT.
When he checks the river, I'm ruling out JJ.
I'm making a crying call if he bets very much expecting to lose.

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I don't get this? Why would the jack make him check with pocket aces or kings? People try to get sneaky, and I think it's MORE likely he has pocket jacks. I think the only hand we are beating at the river that BB could have is AK [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] or pocket tens. This is based on the fact you said the player is reasonable.

[moa]

First, I like capping the flop. You're not wasting a bet because you define BB's hand better (will he still lead the turn?)
Alright, onto the river raise. I love it if BB folds pocket kings and MP calls with AJ. Fine, it doesn't have to work that often to be profitable, after all the pot's big. However, this is NOT a value bet. There's almost no way you have both of them beat. In fact, the only combo of hands i see that you bet is TT and AJ, and they BOTH must have precisely that. ok, throw QQ in there but still. Also, MP1 could have fished out the clubs with AQ-AK of clubs and is now betting. On the other hand, BB has JJ here almost never. Makes no sense to slow down when you hit your dream card i don't think he's check raising the field. I like the raise if you're trying to get him to fold KK-AA, but im not sure if it's gonna work often enough to show profit.

[Aaron W.]

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It still needs to work somewhere if it has any value. Do you really think he's going to 3-bet the turn and fold to a raise?

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I didn't. Until he checked the river. Then I thought there was a chance.

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What hands do you give the other guy?

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What hands do you put him on? Considering he is a reasonable player.

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Hands that beat you. I don't know how reasonable you think he is, but AK clubs is a possibility (some players have a tough time laying down these overcards on the flop - they always think their outs are clean). A hand like 99 that was having fun watching the two of you going to war is a possibility. JJ that was scared passive from the preflop action is a possibility. I don't see him holding a hand like AJ or TT very often (AJ hearts is the *ONLY* one I think might happen, but I don't think he donks the river after all the previous action).

It seems the general consencus is that he never lays down QQ+ more than the required 5% of the time.

Results:

BB takes 10 seconds and calls. MP calls.

BB turns over KK. MP is kind enough to show AJ[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

grunch. I cap the flop, call down if he bets the turn out.

popping him on the turn is alright too if you call the flop 3-bet. If he's still coming at you after that, KK and AA are likely enough to call him down with. While he may be capable of capping pf with TT and JJ, I don't see a typical opponent getting this crazy with either of those hands. It all comes down to his AF for me...

[Aaron W.]

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MP is kind enough to show AJ[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

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MP isn't so reasonable.