hmm, bubble utg hand.. thoughts?

[raptor517]

just in case yall didnt know, i obv shoved. however, i shove everything. i DO think its quite correct to push this though. ill run some icm stuff here in a bit and post it up. holla

[Big Limpin']

Whats most important is that *if* you take thes eblinds, you are in GREAT position to pwn the other shorties (both stackwise, and table position-wise)....if you take the blinds, you are a big fav to pull 2nd.

If you fold, you may make the money, but that ITm is likely to be a Bronze Medal.

Limpin' ain't easy...but pushin' sure is fun (?) [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[bradha]

I'd fold.
1. I don't think you have much fold equity by pushing here, as BB gets good pot odds to call you down.
2. You don't have to put any money in the pot yet. You can play all in with a random hand next time if you want, but you don't need to do that yet.
3. Waiting just one hand gives the other short stacks a chance to bust first.
4. Don't assume you will have to surrender your blinds; you might get a hand good enough to double up with.

[Big Limpin']

Hero pays blinds next hand.
More pertinantly, hero pays blinds b4 the others shorties *next* round too. WHo knows what the stack sizes will be (or if hero is still around even) but its real likely that hero will be SOL as far as waiting others out if he folds, and doesnt get a money deal in the BB.

Just poosh and flop 555

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]
just in case yall didnt know, i obv shoved. however, i shove everything. i DO think its quite correct to push this though. ill run some icm stuff here in a bit and post it up. holla

[/ QUOTE ]

See if you can work into your calcs the chances of one of the other stacks busting himself...that, im my mind, makes up the difference here.

Also, this is a situation where being able to figure out the chances of another shorter stack calling you and the big blind also calling (due to tremendous pot odds). B/c that would be a disaster.

Yugoslav

[THATWACOKID]

[ QUOTE ]
and table position-wise

[/ QUOTE ]

This is very good point.

[Matt R.]

Also, note that if you fold this, you're going to be getting good odds to call from the BB with any two. Suppose the big blind puts you all-in next hand. You're getting 1.93:1 on your call (oops, messed up somewhere when I first did this, it's really 1.74:1 -- 1.93 is if someone else puts you all in). Your random hand next hand is going to be slightly worse than Q5o on average. Would you fold your BB if big stack puts you all in, with 25% of your chips committed? Note that your odds are even better if one of the medium stacks puts you in. If you would not fold your blind, wouldn't you rather be the one pushing so you have some added FE, rather than calling off your chips?

Maybe I'm wrong, but if you fold through the blinds, then you're going to have to win one, and probably more, showdowns to finish ITM, as no one is going to fold their BB to a 275 chip (edit -- 475, I'm full of mistakes today) raise. I still think you have some amount of FE here, and like I said earlier, Q5o is very slightly better than 50:50 versus a random hand.

[IMTheWalrus8]

I just voted and can't believe fold is the popular choice. I'd push any two cards here. Next hand you're in the BB and will lose almost 1/3 of your stack.

I am generally against hanging by your fingernails to make the money, and you're the short stack anyway.

Do you a good read on the BB calling you if no one else does? I still think it's a push.

BTW raptor the effort is much appreciated.

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]
I just voted and can't believe fold is the popular choice. I'd push any two cards here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I really think you lose a lot of $$ doing this.

The good news is that since you've made it this far in the tourny, you already have made $$ more or less!! Woot!

Yugoslav
<font color="white">Who can't wait to ICM this batch and show Raptor why his push isn't even good before factoring in things ICM can't. Woo woo! IT DON'T MATTA IF U BLACK/WHITE?!</font>

[TheUsher]

Here's my analysis for a normal 215:

I'd personally fold because of the position of the players at the table where 3 stack sizes are almost similar, and especially because of the big stack in the BB. To assign certain calling ranges, I'll be a little tighter than normal so let's assume:

Button (1790): 66+,ATs+,AJo+
SB (1730): 66+,ATs+,AJo+
BB (5005): 22+,A2s+,A2o+,K7s+,K9o+,QJs, QTo+

I will not include KQ in the call hands for the Button/SB, but I personally feel that people will call more with this hand than say A3 or so.

In the real world though, the shorties are more likely to call with hands that are much worse than the ones listed above as the 215's have a reputation for constant steals, and people know this. Also, an UTG push from the smallest stack at the table hardly ever means the guy has a monster, but that he's trying to not blind out and steal the blinds in this hand while he's still able to. There's also a huge possibility that one of the 2 other small stacks will call you with something even as weak as A2 in this spot because of the fact that they know you're stealing this hand. It may not be right for them, but trust me that they'll do it anyway.

Since only 1xBB separates the 3 of us small stacks, I'd be happy to fold this hand because I'd be confident I'm a little more experienced than the other 2 people here who are also desperate. This might seem counter-intuitive but I'd believe they have a greater likelihood of making a wrong decision than I would, if that even makes sense. As an added bonus, if the big stack does not pressure all of us on this bubble, I have the 2 other small stacks to my left which will allow me to pressure them in later hands if needed. Also, big stacks sometimes get hesitant to put you all-in for say the last couple of BB for your stack when you're in the BB versus their SB as sometimes people get fancy trying to keep the bubble alive, and/or they have utter crap in their SB and choose to fold it.

P.S. No math included in this post but I already ran it based on my info above and I'm not liking it. An added thought: If the big stack was switched to the button, it changes things dramatically.