Losing with 33 - some hands for inspection. - Page 3

Aaron W. · #21 10-17-2005, 06:31 PM

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Aaron, the single pocket pair I'm holding does little to drop the odds. It's a lot closer to 46 % than 25 %, that's for sure. I am holding one of 26 pocket pairs. If you rule out those two cards that I'm holding, there's still plenty of ways to make pocket pairs.

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I'm not really disputing the number as much as I'm disputing the method. I actually don't know what the right answer is and 25% is just a guess. I'm disputing that you can just multiply all the numbers out and get a reasonable approximation for the right answer. It may turn out that you're close, but it would be luck and coincidence more than it would be a reasoned conclusion.

#22 10-17-2005, 06:43 PM

I think you're limping up front a little too much, which I think is no good with the small pocket pairs, unless the games are really loose passive. Hand #7, if I'm playing it, I would raise preflop, hope to knock out the blinds and gain some fold eqiuty on UTG+2.

#23 10-17-2005, 08:11 PM

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Small pocket pairs prefer HU situations with momentum or multiway pots as a limper. Try to stay away from 3 and 4 way pots as much as possible with these hands. Consider folding or raising them from MP on depending on the table.

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See, this is my impression as well. And yet whenever I ask people on these forums about how to play small pocket pairs in loose 6max tables, they always insist that they are playable most of the time. Despite the fact that you're never going to get a large multiway pot, and you're not likely to get it heads up either.

At the 50% VPIP 6max tables which I play, raising is never going to get you into a heads up situation. Multiple people can be counted on to cold call your raise. Most of the time you're gonna be in a 3way or 4 way hand after the flop.

So what good do small pocket pairs do you? Unless you're in the blinds, or in an unusual situation on the button where either everyone has limped in, or no one is in at all and you can raise to hopefully get one of the blinds to fold.

#24 10-17-2005, 09:37 PM

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Aaron, the single pocket pair I'm holding does little to drop the odds. It's a lot closer to 46 % than 25 %, that's for sure. I am holding one of 26 pocket pairs. If you rule out those two cards that I'm holding, there's still plenty of ways to make pocket pairs.

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There aren't really 26 pocket pairs. Out of 1326 possible hands, there are 78 pocket pairs. So normally we have a 5.9% chance of getting a pocket pair. If we have a pocket pair, then there are 73 ways left for someone else to get one, out of 1225 possible hands, for a 6.0% chance.

Assuming a 10 person table, the chance that one or more other players holds a PP is:
1 - (94%)^9 = 43%
This also assumes that each player's hand is independent of the others, which isn't true but probably doesn't affect it that much. I might be wrong.

Anyway, that might seem like a lot but if only one other player has a PP, I think there's only a 1% chance of us both flopping a set. If we flop a set, there are only two cards left for him to also flop a set with. Here's the math if you want:
176 flops where we both flop a set out of 17296 possible flops. Feel free to dispute these numbers.

PJM1206 · #25 10-18-2005, 06:43 AM

The [poster is talking full 10 handed ring gmaes. You would get a different answer in 6max

#26 10-18-2005, 07:14 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Aaron, the single pocket pair I'm holding does little to drop the odds. It's a lot closer to 46 % than 25 %, that's for sure. I am holding one of 26 pocket pairs. If you rule out those two cards that I'm holding, there's still plenty of ways to make pocket pairs.

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There aren't really 26 pocket pairs. Out of 1326 possible hands, there are 78 pocket pairs. So normally we have a 5.9% chance of getting a pocket pair. If we have a pocket pair, then there are 73 ways left for someone else to get one, out of 1225 possible hands, for a 6.0% chance.

Assuming a 10 person table, the chance that one or more other players holds a PP is:
1 - (94%)^9 = 43%
This also assumes that each player's hand is independent of the others, which isn't true but probably doesn't affect it that much. I might be wrong.

Anyway, that might seem like a lot but if only one other player has a PP, I think there's only a 1% chance of us both flopping a set. If we flop a set, there are only two cards left for him to also flop a set with. Here's the math if you want:
176 flops where we both flop a set out of 17296 possible flops. Feel free to dispute these numbers.

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I'll just try to expand a bit on these numbers, but it's a while since I had any Maths, so feel free to correct me.

If we have a pocketpair, let's assume for the sake of simplicity that the chance of someone else also having one is 40%. This might be a bit of, but I don't think it'll chance the final outcome much.

Now, the chance of us flopping a set is about 12.5%. The chance of someone else also flopping a set is less, around 8.5%, since there are now only 2 cards in the flop that can make the set. So, the total chance of someone flopping a set when we flop one is (40% of someone having a pp in the first place) * (12.5% chance that we flop a set) * (8.5% that villain also flops his set) equaling a total of 0.425% or around 235-to-1.

In other words, you should fear a straight or a flush much more than an overset, and get as much value as you can every time.

Again, the final number was quite a bit smaller than I thought it would be, so I probably did a silly mistake somewhere....

#27 10-18-2005, 08:31 AM

isnt the 3.5% of the time just for the time the other player hits a set as well as you?

and... we were comparing say... 88? (the lowest of the limpable hands) with 33?

so if you have 33.... the only oversets that fit this criteria are 4-8 out of 13?

so really the percent of the time this will matter is 5/13 X .035 = 1.3%?

and then you have to take in to account all the times the board is scary enough for you to back off with your set which puts that loss to about probably 4.5BB on average?

1.3% of 4.5BB is .06BB

how is that not negligent?

TripleH68 · #28 10-18-2005, 12:44 PM

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Suppose you knew you that villain had a pocket pair and you flopped a set. What are the chances of him also flopping a set? You know 5 cards (your pocket pair, his pocket pair, and your set card). There are 47 unknown cards in the deck, two of which help villain. So the probability that one of those two cards shows up on the flop (two draws) is 1 - (45/47)(44/46) = 14%. So when you *KNOW* that villain has a pocket pair, 14% of the time he hits a set. If my 25% number above is correct, then you run into set over set 3.5% of the time which is about 27.5:1 against. This is approaching the realm of insignificant.

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losing a 20+ BB pot 1/16 of the time that you flop a set is not an insignificant and tends to reduce your implied odds by a BB or two.

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Well, when the pot size is 20+ BB, you probably only put in 5-6 big bets yourself. So you're not losing as much as you think you are.

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I was trying to add up some stats of when I have hit sets with 66-22 and lost, but I am afraid my sample size is too small. A quick and dirty look tells me that removing these hands I am still slightly in the red so at least I have a better feel for what is happening.

Thanks for the discussion. It is helping to get my mind straight about what is happening with low pps. Of course in SSH(tight games) on page 80 Miller says to play AA-77 in EP if there is no raise, any pp in middle position if there is no raise.

Also in rereading HPFAP I realize that many micro/small games on the internet may be slightly too aggressive preflop and/or slightly too passive postflop to make playing 66-22 profitable up front. Depends on your game situation of course, but it does not seem there is much to lose by tightening up considerably with these starters most of the time.

In my database I have hands where it gets raised after me preflop and I have hands where I flop a set and get little action postflop.

Here is a set over set example fwiw...

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG calls, 2 folds, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, CO calls, Hero calls, 1 fold, BB checks.

Flop: (6.50 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (6 players)
BB checks, UTG bets, MP2 raises, MP3 folds, CO folds, Hero calls, BB calls, UTG calls.

Turn: (7.25 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, MP2 bets, Hero raises, BB folds, UTG folds, MP2 3-bets, Hero caps, MP2 calls.

River: (15.25 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
MP2 checks, Hero bets, MP2 calls.

Final Pot: 17.25 BB

Results in white below: 
MP2 has 9d 9c (three of a kind, nines).
Hero has 3s 3d (three of a kind, threes).
Outcome: MP2 wins 17.25 BB.

deception5 · #29 10-18-2005, 12:53 PM

I would quit limping them in MP as well when you are the first player to enter the pot. The likelyhood of getting raised is much higher than when you limp in early position and the probability of getting 5 players to the flop is lower.

deception5 · #30 10-18-2005, 12:57 PM

Hand 5 I would consider raising preflop if the blinds are tight.