Texas Holdem Hand

[Steve Giufre]

[ QUOTE ]
"also, as to 11-9, 0% chance bb 3bets (Effectively) bottom 2 pair on turn."

The 11-9 was in reference to Steve's play the first time around on the turn, when there was just a bet from the BB. At that point, the hands Westley has listed are the most likely holdings for the big blind, although for reasons I've indicated in another post in this thread, I think Q-J is unlikely.

[/ QUOTE ]

Right, and I think QJ is pretty much impossible. I'm really not even sure Oscar plays AQ like that (up to this first turn bet.) I know a lot of guys would, but its not entirely possible he may have slowed down a bit with that hand. Maybe we can get him to chime in since he just popped up.

After he three bets the turn I think AQ very unlikely but I could be wrong. I think he should put he stop sign up with jj qq and aa included.

[ QUOTE ]
westley,

what does button have?

button is agro and winning.

was there a flush draw on the flop? what did he do nothing but CALL WITH that whole time.

steve played this hand expertly (assuming he folded) other than the pf call.

edit: also, as to 11-9, 0% chance bb 3bets (Effectively) bottom 2 pair on turn.

Barron

[/ QUOTE ]
Barron, the 11:9 favorite part only pertains to why the hero should initially raise the turn. Once the hero just calls the turn and it goes raise and 3 bet behind him, I understand that the hero's hand has been severly devalued. And maybe it is right to fold this turn, but I will just come right and say it, I cant fold this hand even on that board in this huge pot, when I know there is one opponent for sure that is very aggressive. I am not saying its right to call down here, Im just saying what I would do. And If this is a leak in my game I am comfortable with this flaw.

[Steve Giufre]

I folded. They capped the turn, and Oscar check called the buttons river bet. Oscar had QQ and the button had K10.

I felt OK about folding the turn after the three bet, but I was unsure about whether or not I should raise the first turn bet or not. After thinking about it more and reading some of the responses I'm pretty sure I got it right (regardless of the results.) Even though I think AQ is highly unlikely, if he does have it, I do only have 4 outs to the best hand, and Im pretty sure its getting capped behind me.

[ QUOTE ]
I folded. They capped the turn, and Oscar check called the buttons river bet. Oscar had QQ and the button had K10.

I felt OK about folding the turn after the three bet, but I was unsure about whether or not I should raise the first turn bet or not. After thinking about it more and reading some of the responses I'm pretty sure I got it right (regardless of the results.) Even though I think AQ is highly unlikely, if he does have it, I do only have 4 outs to the best hand, and Im pretty sure its getting capped behind me.

[/ QUOTE ]
Easy fold IMO [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]
NH, thanx for posting the results, I think the whole world wanted to see this one.

[Steve Giufre]

I thought the decision on the turn was close. I did think the button's most likely hands was probably K10, but 109 was a defintely possiblity, as well as a small chance he has something weird and random. But it sure looks like some sort of draw to the nuts. Once the BB can lead at that card, Im sorta with Stox and I put him JJ, QQ, AA, but at this point I think AQ is still a definite possibility. I thought about raising right there, but I thought calling might be better. Since there is a pretty good chance the button has just made the nuts, and the BB might get over agrro with a set on turn, I thought calling might allow me to get away from the hand if it got too ugly. If I raise that turn, the button is gonna three bet, the BB is gonna just call with the hands in his range, and I'm gonna end up putting in three bets on the turn and maybe one on the river out of spite, while drawing to one out a fair amount of the time.

Anyway I could be convinced otherwise, but calling felt right. I can give the BB a worse price if he has 109 by raising, but he is still coming along regardless of wether or not I raise. Since the bb has JJ QQ AA or AQ, (I think), after he leads the turn, I cant see how just calling is that wrong since there is also a good chance the button just made the nuts.

[DcifrThs]

[ QUOTE ]
i get the feeling aggro=BB but i'm not sure

[/ QUOTE ]

i can almost guarantee you that bb=thinking solid 19/10 otherwise there wouldn't be a problem...

as to the hand, AQ is the only hand you beat, but you definately have the button beat. ive folded a set to this action 2 times that i can remember but the guys stats were like 15/9/1 and 17/10/1...

here i think is a fold not because of what the bb has, but what the button's most likely hand is (KT) but lets look at some bb vs. stevieeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee math

AQ=9
AA=6
QQ=6
JJ=6

your odds=18:2 immediate, 21:3 efffective assuming button doesn't do anything else but go to a showdown right now. so we're looking at 7:1...its 2:1 you're ahead of button using straight math, if bb only raises AQs here instead of AQ its still just 4.5:1 and looks like its a call down.

the problem here is a few things can happen (besides of course the 1/44 event we'd all love to ocurr)
1)the button has both of you drawing right now

1a) you get there (J pairs) and you have to call again

1b) you dont get there and its ANOTHER 2 bets to you

2) button caps and you get 20:4 immediate on the turn and its another bet or 2 to you on river so 22:5 at the best case scenario after a cap (which is very unlikely to happen)

3) you fold the best hand (which has 2 ways of looking at its costs...the difference between your would have been win and the expectation you had given your estimates of odds...and your true odds*potsize - your effective odds*potsize where true odds is the actual known distribution of each player's hand at the moment you have to call- which cannot be truly known)

given all this, i an argument can be made for calling the bb...but the button can still cap and personally i think button has you drawing to unknown cards... id fold here in real time assuming 19/10 is bb and button is 28/15

Barron

[threeonefour]

i don't think anyone has mentioned this yet but i think there is a distinct chance both players have KT. something to think about anyway. the Button is representing KT and the BB threebets anyway?

EDIT: i know people think it might be impossible due to the preflop action. but the turn action seems to indicate it, and even solid players mix it up and do strange things sometimes.

[DcifrThs]

[ QUOTE ]
i don't think anyone has mentioned this yet but i think there is a distinct chance both players have KT. something to think about anyway. the Button is representing KT and the BB threebets anyway?

EDIT: i know people think it might be impossible due to the preflop action. but the turn action seems to indicate it, and even solid players mix it up and do strange things sometimes.

[/ QUOTE ]

there is a 0% chance a solid thinking bb raises a 5 person field w/ KTs or KTo.

Barron

[SpaceAce]

[ QUOTE ]
there is a 0% chance a solid thinking bb raises a 5 person field w/ KTs or KTo.

[/ QUOTE ]

There is a 0% chance that the above statement is correct. Not only is there the online misclick factor but also the human factor - people occasionally do things you don't expect.

I'm not saying the guy has KT, but assigning a 0% chance to any particular holding is ridiculous, especially as the action unfolds and new information comes to light.

SpaceAce

[DcifrThs]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
there is a 0% chance a solid thinking bb raises a 5 person field w/ KTs or KTo.

[/ QUOTE ]

There is a 0% chance that the above statement is correct. Not only is there the online misclick factor but also the human factor - people occasionally do things you don't expect.

I'm not saying the guy has KT, but assigning a 0% chance to any particular holding is ridiculous, especially as the action unfolds and new information comes to light.

SpaceAce

[/ QUOTE ]

allow me to rephrase [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]. i'll lay you 199:1 on whatever money u feel comfortable wagering that bb does not have KTs or KTo. if there is a misclick factor along w/ human nature then this wager should be very attractive to you...if not, then .5% probability of him having KTo or KTs is too high for your risk aversion factor...thus if you were in the hand, its effectively a 0% probability that the solid thinking (in stevie's words "super solid") bb would have those hands given the preflop action. then factor in the flop action ... and if its NOT zero, the chance is so close to zero as to be meaningless for analytical purposes.

care to wager?

Barron