Post Flop Play

[gomberg]

I don't know, I'd have a lot of trouble folding to a push there against all but a readable pusher (never would do it on a draw or an overpair). The board is too coordinated to fold that often.

[NickPoker]

If he's not going to fold to a push, then I would push myself instead of raising $300, unless he has strong read that if he re-raises, he can get the villian to push his stack on a bluff. I agree with you Gomberg in that it is not an automatic fold if came back over the top.

[gomberg]

yeah - I think I like a push here as an overpair could for sure call you and you take away odds of a draw that may call. Plus it's always more fun to push [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[Rotating Rabbit]

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Edit: remember he only has to call your push 30% of the time to make it +EV on check raising a turn, and thats assuming nothing goes wrong.

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Could you explain that clearer rabbit? thanks

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I was estimating in my head but i'll detail briefly, I dont want to type 100 sides! Assume villian has a median KK, and will not call a check raise on the turn.

Check raise strategy: You're not going to get more than 250 out of villian if he doesnt improve. There's a very good chance villian sees his 3-bet as a last punch; when hero calls this strong play oop villian will shut down, or you'll get 1 pot sized bet from him circa 250. Given the number of scare or semi-scare cards: A, J, 10 (villian wont know it saved him), 6, heart, ie about 50% of the deck! combined with hero's scary call of villians 3-bet, there's a big chance villian will check behind on the turn, say 50%. If he checks behind, he'll call a 250 bet on the river say 50% of the time. So assuming hero always stays ahead, hero extracts a 250 from villian with probability 0.5 + 0.5*0.5 = 0.75. Thus hero extracts about 180. Not that great is it.

But alas the plot thickens; we have more deductions to make: Villian has a small chance of setting up. This will be horrific. If (5%) it comes on the turn, Hero certainly loses his 250 bet and probably an average of 250 (this assumption plays the smallest role) on the river PLUS the money in the pot before the turn hits, 300. I.e. a loss of 5%*800 = 40. If it comes on the river, (seen 50% of the time, ie net probability 2.5%) the turn will have been check-check, now KKF fires 250, villian raises and KKF folds. Net loss 2.5%*550=25.

We ignore chances of them both improving, as its insignificant.

Thus the total amount made from the c/r strategy is 180-40-25 = 115.

So you see now, villian only needs to call the all in a very small amount of the time to make it a more profitable play.