redsox on opening day.... sunday +180 !!!!

[the alex]

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ERA and WHIP are the key

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I like ERA and whip and use them in all of my analysis. But I use wins too. Wins (and team record when starting) are important. They account for a lot of the intangibles. Most importantly heart and grit when the game is on the line.

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Uh... yeah, but both guys are on different teams. Looking at the individual stats DURING those W/L are the key to see whether that player can beat the good teams.
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I'd lay -120 on the Yankees too. That line just doesn't exist though.

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I made the bet a couple of weeks ago on BoS.com. Just re-checked and it's at -200 now. That was retarded. I should've re-checked when Wells was announced. I'd need to get +200 to lay on the Red Sox here and that would just be for last minute insurance.

[DougOzzzz]

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ERA and WHIP are the key

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I like ERA and whip and use them in all of my analysis. But I use wins too. Wins (and team record when starting) are important. They account for a lot of the intangibles. Most importantly heart and grit when the game is on the line.

I don't expect either guy to pitch a complete game here. And the Yankees/Johnson have the advantage. I just don't feel it's a +190/-210 kind of advantage. I'd lay -120 on the Yankees too. That line just doesn't exist though.

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First off, as everyone else has said, Johnson's W-L record last year is virtually meaningless, as is Wells'. You could make an argument for W-L, or Team W-L record for a starting pitcher - but not when he switches teams.

I happen to think starting pitcher's W-L records are vastly overrated. Even if you consider the team, there can be a huge amount of variance in run support from starter to starter. For example, Derek Lowe got GREAT run support last year hiding what was a terrible, terrible season. Bronson Arroyo got poor run support making him look like a mediocre starter, when he actually had a very good year.

A pitcher may have some sort of small influence on winning close games (say, giving it a little extra when the game is on the line), but he just can't control his team's scoring output.

In my quick analysis, which I admit was not thorough and used several estimates, I only gave 6 innings to Johnson and Wells. I called both bullpens equal - maybe the Sox have a slight edge overall, but the Yanks will surely throw their best (Gordon/Rivera), who the Sox can't really match.

I fail to see the importance of the Red Sox vs. Yankees stats from last years. The only matchup that matters in baseball is Pitcher A vs. Lineup B, and Pitcher B vs. Lineup A. For most of the game, these matchups are going to be different from any Sox-Yanks game last year.

Still, I agree that the Yankees are not a good bet at -200, and there might be a slight edge in betting Boston at +180.

[the alex]

Let's say David Wells starts 3 games against the Yanks this year you make this bet every game. Is Wells gonna beat the Yankees twice this year? Highly unlikely and this is only a good bet if Wells win this game twice out of three times.

Game 1: Lose $100
Game 2: Win $180
Game 3: Lose $100

I have to think that there is no edge to bet this game unless you're getting +200. I don't see much of a gray area here. I'd say stay away unless the action feeds Red Sox action to the extent that you can get +200 or +210 and in turn -180 is the worst I'm betting the Yanks, but I seldom like worse than -150 in baseball.

[DougOzzzz]

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Let's say David Wells starts 3 games against the Yanks this year you make this bet every game. Is Wells gonna beat the Yankees twice this year? Highly unlikely and this is only a good bet if Wells win this game twice out of three times.

Game 1: Lose $100
Game 2: Win $180
Game 3: Lose $100

I have to think that there is no edge to bet this game unless you're getting +200. I don't see much of a gray area here. I'd say stay away unless the action feeds Red Sox action to the extent that you can get +200 or +210 and in turn -180 is the worst I'm betting the Yanks, but I seldom like worse than -150 in baseball.

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I assume you meant Wells vs. Johnson all 3 games. If it's Wells vs. any other Yankee pitcher, +180 is a no-brainer.

I still think you're looking at this wrong. The real question is, if it's Wells vs. Johnson 28 times, how likely are the Red Sox to win 10 or more games? Or in other words, will the Red Sox win more or less than 35.7143% of the time?

If it's more, then betting on the Red Sox is profitable. I happen to think it's very close. My own analysis came up with 36.8%, making it a solid, but not great, bet. One thing worth noting though - the projection system I used actually projects the Sox to finish 3 games better than the Yankees this season. Most people disagree with this (I personally think they are about even, while most others think the Yankees are 5.5 games better), which is why I was surprised this line wasn't better than it was.

Bottom line. I'd definitely go for +200, probably go for +190, and +180 is too close for me to make the bet.

[craig r]

I think there is a chance that the line will move up by tomorrow. So, +190 is a definite possibility. I don't see how fan money doesn't come down on NYY tomorrow. But, i couldn't definitely be wrong.

craig

[VinnyTheFish]

Isn't there a profitable trend to bet against teh winner of the World Series/Super Bowl, etc. on opening day?

[craig r]

It is for the superbowl. I haven't looked at if over the last few years though. I know last year everybody won (or should have).

craig

[LLXC]

Why no talk about the total runs? I'm going to be on the under 9.

[DougOzzzz]

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Why no talk about the total runs? I'm going to be on the under 9.

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Where are you seeing under 9 and at what price? By my analysis, which wasn't perfect, I had it coming in at 8.32 runs or something, which makes it look good to go under 8.5 at +111. Under 9 though would be real good.

[LLXC]

Bad price for under 9. -120 and -117. Might as well pay the juice if you're getting 8.5u at +111. Where are you getting that line?