i think this is a surprisingly complex foxwoods hand,,,

I didn't realize 1st was worth $2mil and 2nd was $1mil.

Thinking.......................................... ....

Ok, it's an easy push.

-Gross

[Pat Southern]

Place Amount
1 $2,142,000
2 $1,035,000
3 $759,000
4 $483,000
5 $345,000
6 $276,000
7 $207,000
8 $172,800
9 $138,000
10 $117,300
11 $103,500
12 $96,600
13 $89,700
14 $82,800
15 $75,900
16 $69,000
17 $62,100
18 $55,200
19 $48,300
20 $41,300
21-25 $34,500
26-30 $27,600
31-35 $20,700
36-40 $17,200
41-50 $14,000
51-70 $12,000
71-120 $11,000

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
Place Amount
1 $2,142,000
2 $1,035,000
3 $759,000
4 $483,000
5 $345,000
6 $276,000
7 $207,000
8 $172,800
9 $138,000
10 $117,300
11 $103,500
12 $96,600
13 $89,700
14 $82,800
15 $75,900
16 $69,000
17 $62,100
18 $55,200
19 $48,300
20 $41,300
21-25 $34,500
26-30 $27,600
31-35 $20,700
36-40 $17,200
41-50 $14,000
51-70 $12,000
71-120 $11,000

[/ QUOTE ]

This is an 11k jump in prize money. The next 11k jump is from 10th to 9th place. $EV and chipEV have fully diverged in this spot. It's not even all that clear that this is very highly chipEV. If you must raise, I would rather put in an amount that of like 4k or so assuming people will think I'm PC'd and fold to a reraise. It's silly, but this is a silly situation.

[gumpzilla]

This seems to be pretty much a pure math problem, but I haven't really seen anybody attempt much math.

I made some assumptions:

1) Pessimistically, I assumed that our EV if we fold is $9900 - 90% to make the money, and when we do make the money, we make $11000, no more.

2) I assumed a tight calling range for 8 players (I'm guessing) at the table of JJ-AA, AK. TT and AQ are reasonable to include as well and would help JJ out a reasonable amount, but it also means you get called more. With the hands I looked at, and assuming 8 players to act with identical calling ranges, you're getting called ~20% of the time.

3) Winning the blinds shouldn't really help you all that much. We'll say your equity is now 11000 in that scenario.

4) Because the payout structure climbs very, very slowly at this point, winning the hand doesn't help you that much. Assuming you still have a sub-par stack, most of the time you're going to finish getting 14000 or less. This is the part that's hardest to quantify, and I would love to see some better effort here. I assumed equity if you win a push to be about 16000. I doubt that your equity comes very close to doubling at all. Against the ranges I specified, JJ has an equity of about 36%, which I use to approximate likelihood of winning.

Given all of those assumptions, it is very, very close to EV neutral as to whether you push or fold. However, as I mentioned, I intentionally lowballed the equity of folding (this also means that I lowballed the equity of just stealing the blinds, but it's obvious that you can't really gain that much from that.) So I think it's a close decision, but likely a fold. It certainly doesn't seem like a huge missed profit opportunity to me.

Fold. That payout structure is insanely linear.

Whether I am a billionaire or in my current financial status (dirt poor), if I have the option of winning $11,000 nearly 100% of the time vs. MAYBE picking up AA twice in row and doubling my chips twice, I'll take the $11,000. AA might potentially win me more, but just by folding I win money. If the short stack was at M=2 or something though, it's a different story. 2 antes is so ridiculously short stacked that it's not even a close decision for me whether to wait or not.

-Gross

[SossMan]

I am playing one hand in this spot and it aint JJ.

[Seadood228]

Would you ever fold AA? At first I thought hero should have never looked at his/her cards, but now that Sirio mentioned the superstack in the BB, I think the odds of this being a multihanded pot go down, which would definitely tempt me to play them...

Who am I kidding, I wouldn't want to be faced with that situation, so I'd probably automuck without looking.

[HoldEmKillah]

wtf. Seriously, wtf? Whoever above me said fold so you can sneak into the money...that's soooooo weak. Hidiously so.

So just take the 11g's and surrender? Or push, hope to get only the blinds but if you get called you have more than doubled your stack and are one pot away from being right back in the thick of things.

Guys, the payout structure is flat as a board. You need chips NOW to get to the real money. $11,000? That's chump change in this tourny and there are only 120 players left.

Doing anything aside from pushing is Weeeaakkkk.

HEK

btw sheets...congrats on 13th. Didn't we agree as part of the chop that I get 10% [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[Melchiades]

Problem is even if you double up now, and you double up a couple of more times you're still below average. So you need to double up three times after this to have an above average stack, and even then it's not at all given that you will get more than the 11k.

Cut the macho [censored] with "playing for first", and start making the play that will earn you the most money. This forum has some serious hang up with "I'm playing for first, not to get ITM". Sometimes playing to get in the money is the only right thing to do.