AA, 10-20 Borgata

[sfer]

Reread the two overpairs chapter in SSH and end this thread.

[W. Deranged]

[ QUOTE ]
Won't raising make it hard for me to protect my hand ever?

[/ QUOTE ]

What are we so worried about protecting against? We have a very strong hand, and given the position of the flop bettor, the course of betting on the turn is not likely to let us face opponent's with multiple bets cold anyway.

Flop seems like a very straightforward raise for value. Everyone's going to put in that extra bet now, the turn card does not define our equity particularly more clearly, the hands we're most afraid of (flush draws and hands like KQ) aren't folding at any point and we have redraws against them anyway.

[nate1729]

Nowhere. That's the point.

[nate1729]

Hey, I don't mean to sound bitter, but perhaps you could put a little substance in one of these posts. I've read SSHE multiple times. What I'm wondering is if, with this table dynamic, it will be possible to protect my hand ever in this big pot. And if not, how to maximize value. Under the "I can't protect this hand ever" hypothesis I probably make more money by waiting until the turn to raise. Note that 8 big bets went in on the turn.

Of course, I'm not saying I'm necessarily right. That's why I, ya know, posted the hand in the first place.

--Nate

[sfer]

[ QUOTE ]
Hey, I don't mean to sound bitter, but perhaps you could put a little substance in one of these posts. I've read SSHE multiple times. What I'm wondering is if, with this table dynamic, it will be possible to protect my hand ever in this big pot. And if not, how to maximize value. Under the "I can't protect this hand ever" hypothesis I probably make more money by waiting until the turn to raise. Note that 8 big bets went in on the turn.

Of course, I'm not saying I'm necessarily right. That's why I, ya know, posted the hand in the first place.

--Nate

[/ QUOTE ]

I. You can't protect your hand
II. Your equity is huge
III. You can get excess action on the flop from a lot of hands that you beat, which can:
1. Trap the field for multiple bets
2. Potentially knock out 5 out draws
3. And this is important, still let you raise the turn with the best hand
IV. Any flush completing card makes it difficult for you to raise the turn since you now have a nut draw and getting 3-bet sucks
V. Lots of hands that you beat will give you excess flop action. You want a lot of flop action, as explained above. Few hands that you beat will give you excess turn action. You don't want a lot of turn action.
VI. All of this except IV and V are covered in the SSH chapter

Finally, raising the turn didn't protect your hand. At all. That's why I ignored your request for an explanation as to the topic of protecting your hand.

Roman numerals rule.

[W. Deranged]

[ QUOTE ]
Hey, I don't mean to sound bitter, but perhaps you could put a little substance in one of these posts. I've read SSHE multiple times. What I'm wondering is if, with this table dynamic, it will be possible to protect my hand ever in this big pot. And if not, how to maximize value. Under the "I can't protect this hand ever" hypothesis I probably make more money by waiting until the turn to raise. Note that 8 big bets went in on the turn.

Of course, I'm not saying I'm necessarily right. That's why I, ya know, posted the hand in the first place.

--Nate

[/ QUOTE ]

As far as getting more money in by waiting until the turn, I think this hand is a bit of an aberration. One of my major problem with waiting until the turn is that one of the following two things often happens:

1. Many players fold the turn and you lose your chance to collect any bets from them.

2. The turn does not necessarily get bet, for a number of reasons (flop bettor was betting a draw, turn card is a scare or action-killing card, etc...).

It is for these two big reasons I think raising the flop tends to be better for value, since you already have all of your customers lined up and totally willing to put extra money in.

[nate1729]

Interesting, but remember, I have the button, so the turn's not getting checked through.

[nate1729]

SB has 99. I think this is one of the more irrelevant results posts you'll see this week.

[W. Deranged]

[ QUOTE ]
Interesting, but remember, I have the button, so the turn's not getting checked through.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's not so much the turn getting checked through I'm worried about (that is a much great concern which luckily doesn't worry us here).

My basic point is that waiting to raise the turn is only really better is someone bets into you on the turn. If no one bets the turn, then all that happens is you get one bet in on the flop and one on the turn, which is for obvious reasons worse than getting two in on the flop and one in on the turn. So there is a clear risk there.

In fact, about 5 minutes ago I played a hand where it was capped pre-flop 4 ways, I held KK in the the third of the four positions, and decided not to raise the flop when player #1 bet out on a J high flop. Seemed like a great "wait till the turn" situation.

Then player #1 didn't bet back into me on the turn. Boo.

[nate1729]

Thanks for the elaboration.

I agree that the turn raise *didn't* protect my hand, but I'm worried about other perfectly feasible scenarios here when a raise might have. This raise was for different reasons altogether. And I'm still not convinced that raising the flop will still allow me to raise the turn. (Indeed, as the cards lay, I think it would have been checked to me, though of course this one instance doesn't mean too much.)