Value bet #1

these are my thoughts for sure, i was suprised to read others thoughts. Is a4s out of his range> we dont have stats on him...
either way, your betting to chop at best period, and ur risking folding the best hand to a 3 bet, whats he 3 betting that ur beating? your at best chopping even the 3 bet. Ur original bet is -ev imo
cdl

yea? what r u doing to a potential raise? your risking folding a winner if u fold, or fing urself if he solidly reads 44. nobody is folding 44 here either imo. what if villan 3 bets his A because he thinks ur chop?
cdl

[flawless_victory]

thats a really *nice bet... consider threebetting the turn and checkcalling the river here... punish him for trying to use his position against you.,.. if hes typical, you will have him beat often on the turn.

[ALL1N]

I find your post hard to read, but what is the 3-bet you are talking about ?? And chopping?? I'm not chopping with worse aces on this board dude.

[ALL1N]

Ok, so when he raised me on the turn, I thought that a worse A was a fairly likely holding for him, and already had thoughts of value betting the river. I think flawless's suggestion of 3-betting the turn is likely better, since he's not folding an A, and also since I don't always get a river card that makes the value bet so nice.

Anyway, the river came and I stupidly thought "what if he's bluffing, I've gotta let him fire another barrel." So I checked (yes, I lied) and he checked behind with A7. Weak.

[ALL1N]

[ QUOTE ]
if your read on villain is that you have no stats but he hasnt gotten out of line then how do you know he wont raise pairs like any other player?

[/ QUOTE ]

Which pairs?? The only pairs he can really have here are the counterfeited 33 and A2, which I don't expect to raise. All other pairs raise the flop.

[TStoneMBD]

very good point. villain could have 99+ that he opted not to cap preflop and waited until the turn to raise, but those hands are unlikely. i suppose it would be unreasonable for him to raise 33 or 2x because he might not expect an ace to call, so any river raises seem like bluffs. this is something i hadnt thought of/realized.

[oreogod]

So if u 3bet the turn and he calls, are u most likely checking (and maybe calling a bet) the river?

[ALL1N]

If he doesn't cap the turn on me then A2 is really the only hand I'm behind, but I think I'd have to know the guy was stupid before trying to squeeze through a value bet on the river. So check and call, hopefully saving a bet against A2 (since he'll probably check behind)

[oreogod]

I was just curious because Id be tempted to do a marginal value bet on the river. But the only thing stopping me is lack of knowledge here (lack of good reads).

Besides the turn being debateable for either/or (I could go w/ either line but Im tempted to 3bet it), I like the hand.