A Mod Challenge: The Either/Or Idea

[WillMagic]

Our equity is going to be between 50-55%. Most of the time we're up against a better diamond or a Q, and those two possiblities cancel out. Occassionally the BB will have a 9 or a lower pocket pair with a diamond, but he will also occasionally have flopped a set or a flush, or even top pair with a higher diamond.

I always just call the check-raise.

If the turn is a diamond, I'm betting if he checks to me and just calling if he bets.

If the turn is a non-diamond...I'm raising. I'm raising non-diamond aces, I'm raising non-diamond kings, I'm raising everything, with the intent of taking a free showdown if I don't improve on the river. If I get three-bet, I'm calling and then folding the river UI.

Will

[W. Deranged]

Will,

I HATE HATE HATE HATE HATE HATE HATE HATE HATE the idea of ever possibly getting three-bet on the turn. It makes me hurl just thinking about it.

[WillMagic]

[ QUOTE ]
Will,

I HATE HATE HATE HATE HATE HATE HATE HATE HATE the idea of ever possibly getting three-bet on the turn. It makes me hurl just thinking about it.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't really have this reaction. First off, I think our turn raise gets three-bet really rarely. Obviously getting three-bet is lame, but we'll have outs plenty of the time. Even if he has a made flush, the ultimate WCS, the flop-checkraise indicates that it's probably a low flush, and diamonds might make us good. We also have plenty of outs against sets and two pair, and it is very easy to fold the river UI...it's not like a guy you describe as "neutral postflop" is going to three-bet the turn AND lead the river with the ace of diamonds after we've shown so much strength.

So that's the bad. On the other hand, the turn raise does so many good things. A portion of the time we will be well ahead and extracting value. Another portion of the time, we will be making a fairly strong semi-bluff/free showdown play. It's going to be really rare that villain's holding is strong enough to three-bet. And if the turn is a non-diamond ace or king, then a raise will really put Qx to the test.

There's too much good stuff going on in these either/or situations to not raise.

Will

[Guruman]

--blind response--

I think raising this flop and checking through the flop will cause our opponent to play as straightforwardly as possible.

If he has a weak queen and no diamond, he'll likely just call and lead a non-:diamdond: turn. if the turn comes with a diamond he may try to check/fold and then donk the river after you check through.

If he has a made flush he's looking to go to war. he'll cap the flop and lead the turn. We can either call and pray his diamonds are lower than ten, or just fold out and move on. If he checks the turn, we just check behind and draw to beat him.

If he has a middle pair and one diamond (like 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]) we get the max value out of our hand here, and when we check through we know we can call a bet on the river no matter what it is.

[elindauer]

Hi Deranged,

Nice post. My off-the-top-of-my-head feeling is that you have 40% equity. My plan is to play the flop and turn hard, generally checking behind on the river UI.

If the turn is a dimond, I'll probably check behind planning to call a river bet or bet it myself if checked to. If the turn is a ten, I'll get aggressive. If the turn is an ace, I may take a free card if offered.

-Eric

[damaniac]

Does anyone recall a similar hand from HPFAP or TOP or some 2+2 book? I seem to recall an instance but can't find it.

[hobbsmann]

I'd guess we have somewhere in the 40-45% equity, but since it's going to be hard to tell when we are ahead or when we are drawing I think I would play the hand we the intention of making sure at least one bet goes in on every street (calling or betting if checked to). I also would only raise a T or the A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].