TPTK vs a TAG turn c/r

[@bsolute_luck]

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This isn't a 20BB pot we're talking about. We're going to end up paying 2 more BB to win how many? And how often are we going to win here?

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those are good questions. ones i don't have answers for because i'm not that strong of a math guy, but i'll say: there are enough other hands villain could have, that i'm willing to pay off on the chance i'm good. for some reason when i play HU and have TPTK, the fold button disappears and all have are call and raise...go figure [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

[Pedigree]

let's talk about the turn bet BTW. can i offer the question: should we? and maybe this is a dumb question but shouldn't villain be folding most hands on this turn? would you fold KK here? if you're looking at <font color="blue">hero's</font> play from <font color="red">villain's</font> perspective, there should be no way <font color="blue">hero</font> is betting QQ, TT again (or are you?). that leaves KK, AA, AK, JJ, so unless we have those hands crushed, we as <font color="red">villain</font> should be folding right or calling with AQ?

why not as <font color="blue">hero</font> give a free card here and catch a bluff on the river, save $$ when we're crushed, or villain might even check/call us with a worse hand on the river hoping we're betting a worse hand.

so from there: why can't hero check the turn? we're either folding a worse hand, bluff c/r, or c/r by a hand that we're crushed by right? (i hope that makes sense, i've been drinking coffee)

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What if he has KQ or AT of spades? I think he'd call a bet with QQ as well...

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i call this down all day. TPTK and a c/r on a scare card? psh this ain't NL. pay off.

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Are you taking a WA\WB line and betting the river? or have you just resigned to seeing SD as cheaply as possible?

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resigned and cheapily. i think our hand may still be good, so the language i would use would be:

"i think my hand may good and has showdown value, but i'm not sure enough to 3-bet and i'd hate to have it capped." There's only 2 hands we fear at this point: JJ(2) and AA(1).

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let's talk about the turn bet BTW. can i offer the question: should we? and maybe this is a dumb question but shouldn't villain be folding most hands on this turn? would you fold KK here? if you're looking at <font color="blue">hero's</font> play from <font color="red">villain's</font> perspective, there should be no way <font color="blue">hero</font> is betting QQ, TT again (or are you?). that leaves KK, AA, AK, JJ, so unless we have those hands crushed, we as <font color="red">villain</font> should be folding right or calling with AQ?

why not as <font color="blue">hero</font> give a free card here and catch a bluff on the river, save $$ when we're crushed, or villain might even check/call us with a worse hand on the river hoping we're betting a worse hand.

so from there: why can't hero check the turn? we're either folding a worse hand, bluff c/r, or c/r by a hand that we're crushed by right? (i hope that makes sense, i've been drinking coffee)

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Against a tricky opponent I check behind a lot of the time here. Giving a free card sort is only marginally bad as the pot is still small and there are no overcards to our pair, but I think this is made up for by the fact that we don't know how to handle a c/r, and we might get an extra bet out of QQ or something.

EDIT: I realized I basically just rehashed with what you said, just that I agree against tricky opponents this is often the best line b/c the turn c/r really puts you in a shitty spot.

[@bsolute_luck]

oops: clarification i thought for some reason the flop was AJ9 not KJ9. this, of course, changes everything i thought about this hand. CARAP! [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/mad.gif[/img]

[WalkAmongUs]

what was the river action? I think I might have been the villain in this hand...

[sean c]

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oops: clarification i thought for some reason the flop was AJ9 not KJ9. this, of course, changes everything i thought about this hand. CARAP! [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/mad.gif[/img]

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Hero has AK i don't see why it makes much of a diff. I think checking the turn is a viable option.

[cold_cash]

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oops: clarification i thought for some reason the flop was AJ9 not KJ9. this, of course, changes everything i thought about this hand. CARAP! [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/mad.gif[/img]

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What's the dif?

I'm still with ya.

[@bsolute_luck]

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oops: clarification i thought for some reason the flop was AJ9 not KJ9. this, of course, changes everything i thought about this hand. CARAP! [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/mad.gif[/img]

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What's the dif?

I'm still with ya.

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my initial reaction was: there's no difference, but i wanted to think about it and actually changing the A to a K makes checking a BETTER option on this board than the AJ9 board.

changing the A to a K does a couple things:

With the Ace: a lot more hand will bluff at this board as any non-Ace hand will have difficulty paying off. and there are a lot less hands that we are behind and checking should still be a good option simply because we're folding worse hands when we're ahead. but betting isn't bad because paying off a c/r is okay seeing we're only behind 2 hands (unless he's 3-betting an UTG PFR with AJ).

Making the A to a K:
checking is drastically better because we have a tougher decision to pay off a c/r as we're now behind more hands and this is a much scarier bluffing board, but the problem is the percentage of hands that actually have us crushed has increased compared to the AJ9 board.

so it changes somethings by making checking here an even better option.

[detruncate]

My thoughts at the time: I think I'm crushed. It might be a semibluff, but I doubt it. 3-betting is out of the question. I'm wondering if I can call down.

In retrospect: I'm raising a fairly broad range, but I'm still a few seats off the button and with loose players left to act so it's not going to be super light. Villain is in SB and I expect his 3-betting range to be fairly reasonable. I cap knowing that his 3-bet is probably legit, and he knows that I know.

So how often is this a semibluff? TT and QQ might try it with 6 likely outs since I'm probably ahead but might fold. AK might be trying to push me off a split or freerolling me. KQ might be hoping I'll fold a better hand, and has 7 outs if called most times even without a flush draw. I'm not sure what else he pulls this with (except a fairly unlikely total bluff) that doesn't have me in bad shape.

Several people have suggested calling down, and I'm curious about why you think it's going to be a +EV move. I'm not trying to influence you one way or the other, I've just been working hard to try to stop myself from throwing away money in these sorts of situations with incorrect folds and calldowns and need to reevaluate my assumptions. Have I misrepresented Villain's range or the frequency that he bluffs here? Am I just looking at this the wrong way?

Many thanks.

[@bsolute_luck]

once i realized the flop was KJ9 i think you should fold. i was suggesting to call down when i thought you had paired your Ace.